Wikileaks cables reveal China 'ready to abandon North Korea'

Source: The Guardian

China has signalled its readiness to accept Korean reunification and is privately distancing itself from the North Korean regime, according to leaked US embassy cables that reveal senior Beijing figures regard their official ally as a "spoiled child".

News of the Chinese shift comes at a crucial juncture after the North's artillery bombardment of a South Korean island last week that killed four people and led both sides to threaten war. China has refused to condemn the North Korean action. But today Beijing appeared to bow to US pressure to help bring about a diplomatic solution, calling for "emergency consultations" and inviting a senior North Korean official to Beijing.

China is sharply critical of US pressure tactics towards North Korea and wants a resumption of the six-party nuclear disarmament talks. But the Guardian can reveal Beijing's frustration with Pyongyang has grown since its missile and nuclear tests last year, worries about the economic impact of regional instability, and fears that the death of the dictator, Kim Jong-il, could spark a succession struggle.

Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/29/wikileaks-cables-china-reunified-korea

And why it is much worst than usual...

Not world shattering just interesting.

I know that's what you meant, just offering it as I often see mixed metaphors, etc. on DU. Personal thing...

If NK feels that they're about to be abandoned by their only ally, without whom they can't continue to exist as a power, they might feel they have nothing to lose by attempting to seize South Korea by force. If they lose, they're gone as sure as they would be if they do nothing, but if they won--even with a body count in the millions--it would put them in complete control of the peninsula and eliminate any questions about getting rid of them any time soon.

If he can.

...depending on your definition of "rational." Kim and company don't have to have a Nero complex in order to figure they have nothing to lose by playing the odds for their last chance to stay in power. A lot of decisions like that are easy when you don't care about people besides yourself. From their perspective, better to try and be the royalty of the war-torn slave state than to go quietly into exile or a trial for crimes against humanity.

Condi didn't have it. Bolton didn't have it. Cheney didn't have it. In fact, the only diplomatic one in the whole era of Bush was the "Second Assistant to the Deputy Undersecretary of the Department of State's First Co-advisor for Policy Issues Pertaining to the Greater Mauriania's Dispute of the Application of International Maritime Law for Fisheries, Whaling and Seal Hunting."

But she was fired when they saw that she was too diplomatic.

North Korea may feel more inclined to use nuclear bombs if they feel China is abandoning them.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/5381109/North-Koreas-nuclear-activities-timeline.html

... if we retaliate against North Korea.

IIRC, our military doctrine requires a "retaliation in-kind" if nukes are used.

We're looking at a death toll in the millions, as opposed to global extermination, so long as China doesn't nuke us back.

They could do serious damage to the west coast, but they're not going to wipe out the planet.

That said, I don't think China would have had any intention of engaging the US in a nuclear war over Korea, even before they started softening. That was one of the reasons they wanted to keep the North Koreans in their box, to avoid getting into any sort of confrontation.

China's Missile Inventory

Launcher
Missiles Estimated Range

DF-5/CSS-4 ICBM


20


20


8,460+ km

DF-4/CSS-3 ICBM


10-14


20-24


5,470+ km

DF-3/CSS-2 IRBM


6-10


14-18


2,790+ km

DF-21/CSS-5 MRBM Mod 1/2


34-38


19-50


1,770+ km

JL-1 SLBM


10-14


10-14


1,770+ km

DF-15/CSS-6 SRBM


70-80


275-315


600 km

DF-11/CSS-7 SRBM


100-120


435-475


300 km

JL-2 SLBM


DEVELOPMENTAL


8,000+ km

DF-31 ICBM*


DEVELOPMENTAL


7,250+ km

DF-31A ICBM


DEVELOPMENTAL


11,270+ km

Total


250-296


793-916

* China defines the DF-31 as a long-range ballistic missile, not an intercontinental ballistic missile.

DF stands for Dong Feng which means “east wave.” The U.S. designation CSS stands for Chinese Surface-to-Surface. Color codes: Red (nuclear), Blue (possibly nuclear), Black (not nuclear).

Source: U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, 2006, May 23, 2006, p. 50. Colors and notes added. Table reproduced and further analyzed in Hans M. Kristensen, et al., Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning, Federation of American Scientists and Natural Resources Defense Council, November 2006, p. 38.

More:
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/nuke/index.html

warheads, limiting them to the 300-400kt warheads. They are solid fuel, not liquid. The DF-5's are capable and assumed to be armed with up to 4 megaton warheads.

This is not a force you win a nuclear war with. This is a force you are prepared to inflict unacceptable losses upon a possible enemy in retaliation. A deterrence force only. And China is phasing out the DF-5's in favor of the simpler, easier to maintain solid-fueled DF-31a's, again, pointing to a deterrence intent only, not a 'win a war with the US' intent.

We should be so passive.

of war. They have too much to lose. They are THE rising super-power. We are a waning super power.

I see this is a good thing, ultimately. NK will need to keep China's support. China would likely let them know it is not unconditional.

Or, NK could become even further isolated and act more erratically. The latest flare up was the doing of the baby Kim. He is wanting to flex his muscles and take his place on the global stage. He grew up in his crazy dad's country. The 2nd generation leaders/dictators are historically the ones to make the horrible decisions, and he is actually the third.

And China won't be the sole super-power of the 21st century with the US a distant second, rather India, the EU (depends upon their ability to act in a united fashion), China and the US will form a multi-polar world. It's not like we're France of 1920 beleaguered by the hallow classes, a declining population already matched by a number of our neighbors.

Also by mid century the US will probably have a population of over 400 million... almost half of China's.

Which is a big 'if', on top of an even bigger if, stuffed, baked, and deep fried inside of a series of even larger 'if's'.

More in your favor, China doesn't have the inventory of missiles or warheads to actually win a war with the US, nor do they have a policy encouraging such a thing. They have a policy of 'no first use' and not even interested in 'winning'. They have a proper deterrence force, intended only to inflict unacceptable losses in retaliation. Mission accomplished, when dealing with the United States as a quasi-opponent.

They have a "defensive use only" policy, the same as the US and Russia.

That said, the Chinese need us as much as we need them. No one is interested in a fight, nor have they ever been.

They've repeatedly had ranking military suggest that there would be defensive-use scenarios, and there's been some question about the wording of their declaration, which is phrased in such a way that "nuclear weapons" could be redefined to include nuclear powered weapons such as carriers and subs. However, I'd thought that they'd been sticking the the 1998 declaration which edged them away from NFU and towards defensive-use-only.

That says something about launch capability to me.

That may sound like a lot, but it would take thousands to appreciably depopulate the planet.

Even a few dozen is a fair start. Then there is fallout, and maybe a bit of nuclear winter...

Even though North Korea was able to produce a crude nuclear device for an underground detonation, it's a very long and complicated process to build a nuclear warhead small enough to fit onto a ballistic missile. Even if China abandons them, they will not be in a position to use nuclear weapons for quite a while.

I've read reports suggesting that North Korea might have several atomic bombs already built. They don't have to miniaturize them enough to put them on a missile. They can drop them from planes, or easier still, smuggle them into wherever they want to detonate them. Heck, it wouldn't be all that difficult for them to smuggle an atomic bomb onto a freighter, and eventually work its way into an American port.

We know they have atomic weapons capability as evidenced by their tests, so this isn't like Iraq all over again. I don't know about you, but I'm not willing to bet the lives of millions of people on the assumption that they don't have atomic weapons.

Not just damaging to the U.S., damaging to peaceful stability in East Asia.

This could well lead the north into a desperation move to attack the south.

leadership. I do not remember where I read this but it was at least 2-3 years ago.

..I mean zero chance. None, nada, zilch. Even the North Korea knows this. They don't even have the fuel for more than a couple weeks of conflict.

The best thing that can happen is for China to abandon them. Yes, they may lash out, but this North Korea as it exists now is a brutal prison state that needs to fall.

We can't sit by and prop it up because we are afraid it might attack someone. If the US, China and S. Korea do that it would prolong a horrible government in the North and send a signal all over the world that threats of aggression are a good tactic for totalitarian governments to remain in power.

If they had only, say, a 5% chance, compared to the certain knowledge that they were going to be ousted from power and their entire regime thrown into the dustbin of history, they could easily decide that it's worth it to take the long shot.

...and I might agree that N.Korea might just say "f**k it" and invade if they had any chance at all of taking over the South. The thing is, they have 0 chance of that. For starters, they simply don't have another fuel and adequate supply lines for it.

There is always a chance the North might think seizing some territory could buy them concessions, but the realty of the situation is South Korea really does have a much better military and the North would lose. To succeed at all, the North would have to use chemical weapons to deny large areas of territory to the South, but this would result in American retaliation that would end the North Korean government almost immediately.

You presume a rational approach to deciding that question.

• South Korea's vice-foreign minister said he was told by two named senior Chinese officials that they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.

• China's vice-foreign minister told US officials that Pyongyang was behaving like a "spoiled child" to get Washington's attention in April 2009 by carrying out missile tests.

• A Chinese ambassador warned that North Korean nuclear activity was "a threat to the whole world's security".

• Chinese officials assessed that it could cope with an influx of 300,000 North Koreans in the event of serious instability, according to a representative of an international agency, but might need to use the military to seal the border.

In highly sensitive discussions in February this year, the-then South Korean vice-foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, told a US ambassador, Kathleen Stephens, that younger generation Chinese Communist party leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula, according to a secret cable to Washington.

Links to the cables themselves are here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/29/wikileaks-cables-china-reunified-korea

They are China's neighbors and China's problem. Just like New Jersey is for New York.

their lack of quality parts and materials kicks in. Missles and ammunition explode and cause a cascade of destruction.

Their people eat grass. Quality workers, quality product! I would bet that except for a few 'show' launches, the inventory is dangerous to NK as well as the South.

Potempkin Village Redux

doesn't necessarily mean that this is what China thinks or is their actual policy toward NK...

This is simply what China wants America to think about them.

to resume, ASAP, I think that lends a lot of credence to this allegation.

As it happens, I now consider it a fact. China has everything to gain from Korean reunification, including the dollar staying solvent, along with US consumption continuing, as well as gaining a non-bellicose 'normal' neighbor which will consume their products. Win-win-win.

They knew however that South Korea would immediately reject the offer as untimely. That request was hollow. Their inaction and wishy washy statements immediately after the attacks by N Korea speak for themselves.
All China really wants is simply the status quo.

People forget, these cables released aren't necessary what foreign governments actually think. They are just as likely to be only what foreign governments WANT us to think.

Even if there is no intent to manipulate the United States with misinformation, the comments in the cables may represent the personal opinions of the officials and not necessarily those of their respective governments. They may also reflect the way the officials think things ought to be.

but this document I think this helps the US's hand against NK.

to the media organizations only. The media organizations are assisting with cleaning the names out of them before release.

making sure that reunification doesn't happen!

They need all the manufactured enemies they can get...

To keep the sheeple quiet...

Maybe the Cat Fud Commission will cut Social Security to pay off the Chinese to keep N.K. afloat...

Kim il-Sung and the Korean Communist Party greatly aided the revolutionary forces in China before the establishment of the PRC & DPRK, but as a leader he was always a radical independent, siding more with post-Khruschev Soviet Union and the eastern bloc over China for most of his life (but despised Hoxha for some entirely personal reasons I never completely understood); Kim Jong-il, being a far weaker commander and a far less revolutionary persona, has more relied on the nearby power to clean up after his micro-tantrums.

The Soviet Union (Russia) got out of the business of massively subsidizing communist countries around 1990. So Kim Jong Il really has no other option.

Source: The Guardian

Chinese officials speak after Guardian US embassy cables reveal Beijing is leaning towards acceptance of reunification under Seoul's control

China supports the "independent and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula in the long term" and cannot afford to give the North Korean regime the impression it has a blank cheque to act any way it wants, Chinese officials based in Europe said today.

The officials, who asked not to be identified, spoke after the Guardian reported that senior figures in Beijing, exasperated with North Korea acting like a "spoiled child", had told South Korean counterparts China was leaning towards acceptance of reunification under Seoul's control.

China's moves to distance itself from the North Korean regime were revealed in the latest tranche of leaked US embassy cables obtained by WikiLeaks and published yesterday by the Guardian and four international newspapers.

Reunification was not going to happen overnight and China's first priority was to calm the situation, restart dialogue, and maintain regional stability, a Chinese official said. But Beijing had always backed peaceful reunification as a future goal.

Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/30/china-wants-korean-reunification

---

China's attempts to calm the situation by restarting dialog have been rebuffed by the United States. From yesterday, US brushes aside China's call for N Korea talks

PB

is peace in that or any region. Keep stirring the pot and making billions on the newest military technology.

we have pulled out a division from Korea and all our tactical nukes. Next.

:rofl:

Chinese officials are confirming what the leaks are saying. They believe Seoul should govern the whole peninsula.

Having had their own slog from post-war devastation, military dictatorship, fledgling democracy and rise as an industrial power, many South Koreans are not as thrilled with having a 20 million person basket case dumped into their lap.

While similar in some superficial respects to German re-unification, the South Koreans are not as eager for it as one might think.

It's sort of like the old saw, "Everybody wants to go to Heaven, but nobody wants to die."

No one really seems interested in Koreans' point of view, do they?

only too well. Still, re-unification is the most humane and therefore desirable outcome for a split and traumatized nation.

But I was taken aback in a conversation with some South Koreans about it.

It was like I asked about their crazy uncle in the attic. Comparing it to Germany, I was told, "Koreans are.... different."

I don't really know what he meant, but his body language said "change the subject."

An acquaintance of mine married a Korean woman. He told me that Koreans in general tend to be extremely private and reluctant to address anything that might make anyone present feel uncomfortable. Repressed we would call it in the West.

The whole reason we have troops in South Korea is to contain North Korea. If Korea is unified, the need for those troops disappears.

Just like the treaty of final settlement stated that NATO troops would not deploy in east Germany.

Such a treaty could be signed right now, while North Korea still exists. This would remove one of China's major reasons for fearing re-unification.

China seems to have not been angered with the leak and instead have backed it up. Could be a historical turning point.

Thanks for posting! :kick: (I'd have rec'd it if I could)