STOCK MARKET WATCH, FRIDAY AUGUST 1.....(#1)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks are poised to open flat to higher on Friday as investors brace for reports on the U.S. labor market and the manufacturing sector, searching for more proof the economy is on the mend.

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The market shot higher on Thursday after a report showed the economy grew a bigger-than-expected 2.4 percent in the second quarter, reassuring investors who have been betting on an economic rebound. But stocks ended well off their session highs as a hint of caution returned to the market.

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a hint of caution returned to the market????
More like - traders took huge profits in the 3:00 hour.

Buoy of Hope

Today's indexes in the U.S. were buoyed by strong economic reports. Reported this morning was a decrease in initial jobless claims and a moderate uptick in GDP, in the U.S.

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The data suggests that the immediate future for the economy probably looks fairly good. However with Mortgage rates up by a percentage point, the refinancing boom has already collapsed, ending an important source of consumption demand. Many believe, including those in this office, if higher rates also collapse the housing bubble, the second dip to this recession is just around the corner.

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. unemployment rate fell in July for the first time in more than a year but in a report on Friday that ran counter to other signs of an economic strengthening, employers chopped 44,000 workers from their payrolls.

The jobless rate slid to 6.2 percent last month from 6.4 percent, the Labor Department said. The decline was caused by an exodus of people from the labor force, not by any surge in hiring.

The government said 556,000 departed the labor force, the biggest drop since May 1995. Big drops in the labor force can occur as job seekers become discouraged and abandon their searches. Unless they are actively searching for a job, workers are not counted as unemployed.

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. personal incomes and spending both posted healthy gains in June, a Commerce Department report said on Friday, supporting hopes for a an economic rebound in the second half of 2003.

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NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The euro advanced, then trimmed its momentary gains against the dollar on Friday, after the U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy lost jobs in July and markets pondered the strength of the recovery.

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DOW JONES† +28.00 9235.00
NASDAQ† -7.50 1271.50
S&P 500† -4.00 985.30

I'm back and I missed you all! I caught that yesterday, haha, I saw it coming. When I saw things hit +150.00 I laughed at the "sucker's rally" and sure enough, I tune in for closing numbers and we are talking +33 or something on the DOW. That one was too easy to call!

Anyhow, can't wait for the numbers, what is in store today???

Couldn't believe the GDP yesterday, well I could believe the figure but was hard-pressed to believe there were enough morons out there to see a Defense spending driven GDP increase as a sure sign of economic improvement. Of course after watching the sucker's rally play out it was obvious that brokers saw it but played their marks anyway. Poor chumps.

Ah well--either way it's good to be back. Oh, BTW, I couldn't believe it when I saw the 10yr hittin' 4.5!! Holy Crappola!! Buh-bye refi bubble!!!! We hardly knew ye!! ;-)

Checkin' back in in a bit! Missed all the news and gossip!! :hi:

Julie

My jetlagged son kept me up until the wee hours so my attention here is at 25% today.

Yesterday was a remarkable rally and you are right about the obvious sucker punch when the Dow reached +150. What was also an important factor in those market numbers, IMO, was the regular IRA payroll deductions. The market was flooded with money. It would be interesting to have minute-by-minute numbers on one's IRA to glimpse its balooning value and subsequent decline during the witching hour.

U.S. stock futures dip on jobs data
Fri 8:50am ET - CBS MarketWatch
U.S. stock futures lost ground Friday and Treasurys extended losses as investors sifted through a report that revealed more jobs were lost last month.

And just a bit after opening we have (9:42):



Dow 9,215.74 -18.06 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,730.55 -4.47 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 987.34 -2.97 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.510% +0.036

I will weep for those of you in the Treasuries......ouch!

Julie

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks extended their losses in mid-morning trading on Friday after a surprising drop in the number of jobs on U.S. payrolls dashed cold water on investors' expectations for an economic rebound.

The Institute for Supply Management's closely watched survey of manufacturing across the United States also kept the mood subdued on Wall Street.

While the ISM's July survey was in line with analysts' estimates, the number disappointed investors hoping the survey would show a stronger pickup in the factory sector, said Rich Nash, chief market strategist at Victory Capital Management.

"There was this feeling out there that the ISM number maybe had some ability to surprise on the upside," Nash said.

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Dow 9,161.67 -72.13 (-0.78%)
Nasdaq 1,717.51 -17.51 (-1.01%)
S&P 500 980.39 -9.92 (-1.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.444% -0.030


Ouch.

Julie

Sorry so late, I slept in! Oops!

Well today's reading is an interesting one. No changing lines, so the only hexagram shown is SOVEREIGNTY, one I have never seen come up before.
Sovereignty is supposed to be a very positive hexagram, "Because of a stroke of good fortune you will meet with supreme success." But so far today doesn't look supremely successful.
:shrug:

Maybe we need to focus on Ching's advice for this time, "You must now fight to suppress evil in yourself and in the general situation by making evident those things that are good."

Hmmmm, I'm going to say that even though things look bad now, the market will close up today. Ching, don't let me down! ;-)

of the approaching monarchy, at least that is similar to what the neo-cons plan for us.

I'll be surprised if we finish up today but not shocked, the PPT is there to save the Simian's pathetic ass so they'd be slackin' if they didn't do something.

Julie

I am gone for the day. My sleep-deprived son needs some fresh air along with his sleep-deprived dad.

Actually this is coming to you from UNDER the trading desk as we felt it best to keep our heads down today as we could see a food fight brewing. Damn if we didn't right at the open and until the gloss of newness wore off what was essentially good news/bad news/more bad news of this am's numbers.

I always feel like I have to point this out , especially in bear markets, but selling does not happen in a vacuum;SOMEONE is taking the other side of your trade.

That being said I find it's helpful to sit back and really look at someone's motivations for buying bonds here. What we see is a lot of futures related activity but beyond that there are some mysterious and very large entities skulking about in the shadows who are looking at todays levels as a good place to be long from. This is the way they buy, and the violent flurries that strike in the first hour of trading are when they like to silently buy, ultimately they break cover, like that Bigfoot footage, for just long enough to make you look around and say "did I just see that? What the hell was THAT??" Thus, when it became apparent that it was the REEEEEELY big fish behind the selloff via a 1% premium on a futures sale and they needed more, the tone of the market switched and imbalances began to pile up on the buy side.

End of story, everybody walked away with what they wanted today, especially index traders.

But the huge things skulking about in the dark netherworlds of back door and rolloverr trading into some arcane market in the Crimea via a trading floor in Turks and Caycos makes me wonder about the state of the world.....something BIG is brewing;and the bigs want lots of Treasuries for some sort of cover against ...........what?
<cue spooky scary music> :wow::wow::wow::wow::wow::wow::wow:

notes hittin' the block like next week or something like that? Hmmm. I've been pretty interested in the part Treasuries are playing in this whole thing, looks like the plot thickens........

Julie

and I don't just mean the numbers but the talk they are dishin' up to go with. I have heard several times today that the real UE numbers suck mightily, making the ones bandied about look pretty. I mean they are saying such things just as casual as they please, like they've been discussing these facts candidly all along.

One place I have been hearing some straight talk as usual is Rick Santelli on CNBC. He doesn't seem to play the make-it-look-as-rosy-as-possible game~~therefore I like him. He was talking about relations between the markets and touched on the overseas markets too. I believe Cap'n when he talks about Dark Forces making some calls here. Makes it all a bit more logical.......

Here's where it all seems to end for today's Big Drama:

Dow 9,153.97 -79.83 (-0.86%)
Nasdaq 1,715.59 -19.43 (-1.12%)
S&P 500 980.15 -10.16 (-1.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.415% -0.059


Looks like Treasuries have at least slowed the flow......

See all you marketeers in the AM-
Julie