STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 29

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 29, 2010

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Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

It's above 20F! Heatwave--the sun won't be up for hours...

Today I take the Kid for the crown procedure. Hence the insomnia. She tolerated the filling well, but this is a couple of magnitudes up from that.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Good luck with that crown. We have 29ºF down here. Oddly, we are expected to have temps in the 60s by the weekend.

had some serious frost to scrape off this morning (didn't get to park in the garage last night)

Times like this I really miss Seldane (only sinus med that ever really worked for me)


Anyway...I see the markets are nearing my 11,800 prediction although I have a feeling that we might end up seeing the mid-12000s by spring before the meltdown.

the Chinese cure (eating chinese mustard), the Mexican cure (eating spicy chili), the Indian cure (eating spicy curry) and if it is really bad the Thai cure (known to take the skin of the roof of your mouth). Be sure to lubricate with beer.

:)

About to open up a can of chicken noodle soup and microwave that and hover my head over it for a bit.

a little bit of spiciness at least :)

I've read about couple of pediatricians who give them to their (patients) kids instead of toys or treats.

Kids aren't so squeamish about pouring things through their noses.

I use one when I get stuffy or snotty. They work amazingly well.

The Spousal Unit, however, will use on only under duress.

that's my next move.

and my sympathies to you. I have worked with patients with challenges before. It makes for, how shall I put this, an interesting day. I enjoy the challenge because it is different from the routine, but I never forget that for the parents that deal with this every day, it is a chore. My thoughts and prayers of strength and peace are with you.

I love my special patients. Oh, you will be happy to know, one of the gifts that hubby and I did was to supply funding for my school's special ed class to have their Christmas party. We donated for the pizza and developmentally appropriate toys. For some of these kids, it is the only Christmas they get. Just the smiles on their faces and the hugs as they proudly show off their toys are worth more than all the gifts one could ever receive. I feel sorry for those WS types that think those bonus checks will fill the void in their souls. I don't store my treasures on Earth, but place them in heaven.

a treasure on earth

:grouphug:

This needed repeating... :hug:

"But lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal. "

That was the most well spent of my money this year that I got to witness. I gave several large gifts to the food banks and altough I did not witness it, I was the beneficary of a basket once. I know how thankful my mother and we children were at the time.

Again, I encourage the readership to consider a gift. You don't need to give millions to do good. Just do what you can, where you can, when you can. If not money give time, which in many ways is more valuable.

Trading has been especially light during the holiday week. It's the time of year when most traders have solidified investments, typically leaving only those who work for oil producers and commercial refineries, companies that still need to lock in supply contracts, analyst Stephen Schork said.

The volume of trading is expected to spike in the first few weeks of 2011. Several large investment banks have predicted that oil will hit $100 next year as China, India and other emerging economies compete with developed countries and tighten the world's oil supply.

Gasoline prices have been tugged higher this month as oil surged to new two-year highs. The average pump price added less than a penny overnight to $3.049, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. A gallon of regular unleaded is 18.9 cents more expensive than it was a month ago and 44.6 cents more expensive than the same time last year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

snip
Extreme oil prices pummel more than just our wallets; they also strike our cultural psyche. Those people who found a way to ignore the signs of economic collapse until now will discover that they cannot avoid the icy reality of the gas pump. When those digital dials spin past the $5 mark before pouring out even one gallon of unleaded, I suspect people will be generally pissed. This is why the establishment media is oozing with oil disinformation and demand rhetoric now. It is an attempt to “vaccinate” the masses against inflation in the future; to redirect their anger towards a false cause and effect scenario. It has long been my concern that the speculation induced gas spike of 2008 was, in fact, a deliberately engineered event; a staged price vault meant to condition Americans to passively tolerate the very real dollar disintegration and hyperinflation which would eventually occur later down the road. When crude prices race towards $150 a barrel once again, does anyone really doubt that the MSM will bring up “speculators” as the villain? And, more importantly, does anyone doubt that the rest of the world will blame the actual trigger; the fading Greenback?

more at link

http://neithercorp.us/npress/2010/12/oil-juggernaut-unleashed/

Maybe Larry Summers' ideas were worth something after all. He showed how -not- to conduct economic policy.


The only hope I have with this decision is someone will take the spot who does not come pressed from the Robert Rubin mold as Summers.

someone who went public, like Michael Hudson or William Black. Nothing else would convince me that there was a sincere desire to change.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/FROM-MIDDLE-CLASS-TO-SLAVE-by-lila-york-101227-329.html

There have long been claims that the banking crisis of 2008 was premeditated financial terrorism; a Google search turns up 215,000 references to that proposition, including Dylan Rattigan's widely viewed exposes on CNBC and elsewhere. The banks were overextended on derivatives trades that could not be met, and they had knowingly foisted "AAA-rated' toxic mortgage debt, certain to blowup, onto unsuspecting European banks and American pension funds. Moreover, the privatization of Social Security, which George W. Bush pushed hard for, was intended to pull in trillions of dollars to Wall Street investment banks that would have papered over the losses. When that failed in Congress, the writing was on the wall. Was the financial meltdown calculated to force working people to pay off the debts of the Wall Street gamblers and cover the potential bond losses of the richest one percent? Probably. Congressional investigations stopped short of accusations that would have resulted in legal prosecutions. And no wonder. Wall Street banks dump millions in campaign donations on senators and congressmen every year. Quite the gravy train. Add to this the suspicion of many traders that Lehman Brothers was allowed to go down because that firm was Goldman Sachs' chief rival on the Street and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was a Goldman guy, and you have a picture of likely corruption on all levels.

More shocking still is a recent revelation by Lee Adler, founder and editor of The Wall Street Examiner. His chart (see below) of the SOMA (System Open Market Account) shows that the Fed single-handedly caused the recession, and probably the global financial meltdown that preceded it. It tells us that the Fed withdrew liquidity at the precise moment that it was needed. If true, it is certainly grounds to end the Fed entirely and return currency operations to the Federal government. If true, we can only conclude that the Fed, the investment banks, The White House and the Congress are colluding to rob the middle class of what assets they have and turn them over to the wealthy. Is this class warfare? Yes, only we did not start it. They did.


GRAPH AND MORE AT LINK

This is a paradox. Holiday spending experienced vigorous growth, yet people are pessimistic about jobs in view of statically high unemployment.


Home price declines and the associated negative "wealth effect" probably contributed to the overall feeling of consumer pessimism.

(Down little. Good day.)
Late talking with neighbor, early petting of cat.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,326,361,803,446.91 + 4,547,638,465,798.73
DOWN 59,144,170.26 + UP 7,914,122,811.21

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,215.31 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.65, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,012,192 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,609.18.
A family of three owes $133,827.55. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,625,330,221.85.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,658,575,496.03.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,572,814,996.15.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 60 reports in 88 days of FY2011 averaging 5.21B$ per report, 3.55B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 755 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.9 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/27/2010 13,874,000,269,245.64 BHO (UP 3,247,123,220,332.56 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,312,377,238,353.90 ------------* * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,295,655,590,899.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/07/2010 +000,178,077,201.68 ------------********
12/08/2010 +018,541,141,818.10 ------------**********
12/09/2010 +000,426,018,289.04 ------------********
12/10/2010 +000,085,971,333.21 ------------*******
12/13/2010 -000,140,409,571.73 --- Mon
12/14/2010 +000,270,507,131.41 ------------********
12/15/2010 +035,075,952,728.32 ------------**********
12/16/2010 -002,942,603,716.29 --
12/17/2010 +002,071,215,295.43 ------------*********
12/20/2010 -000,083,147,973.47 ---- Mon
12/21/2010 +000,210,432,562.88 ------------********
12/22/2010 +000,569,620,034.56 ------------********
12/23/2010 +001,962,709,844.10 ------------*********
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon

56,165,019,340.32 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4675079&mesg_id=4675414

(Up some. Good day.)
Unsettled. Late lunch.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,327,486,030,729.88 + 4,549,744,325,203.12
UP 1,124,227,282.97 + UP 2,105,859,404.39

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,215.23 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.65, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,019,392 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,618.54.
A family of three owes $133,855.61. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 3,608,145,720.36.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,766,245,052.27.
The average for the last 32 days would be 2,593,354,736.51.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 61 reports in 89 days of FY2011 averaging 5.17B$ per report, 3.55B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 754 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.9 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/28/2010 13,877,230,355,933.00 BHO (UP 3,250,353,307,019.92 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,315,607,325,041.30 ------------* * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,294,344,647,641.29 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/08/2010 +018,541,141,818.10 ------------**********
12/09/2010 +000,426,018,289.04 ------------********
12/10/2010 +000,085,971,333.21 ------------*******
12/13/2010 -000,140,409,571.73 --- Mon
12/14/2010 +000,270,507,131.41 ------------********
12/15/2010 +035,075,952,728.32 ------------**********
12/16/2010 -002,942,603,716.29 --
12/17/2010 +002,071,215,295.43 ------------*********
12/20/2010 -000,083,147,973.47 ---- Mon
12/21/2010 +000,210,432,562.88 ------------********
12/22/2010 +000,569,620,034.56 ------------********
12/23/2010 +001,962,709,844.10 ------------*********
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********

57,111,169,421.61 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4675957&mesg_id=4675972

(Up little. Good day.)
Tire blew emergecy gas shutoff.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,327,651,808,773.26 + 4,543,297,873,206.16
UP 165,778,043.38 + DOWN 6,446,451,996.96

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,215.16 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.65, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,026,592 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,597.31.
A family of three owes $133,791.93. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 3,506,414,293.63.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,688,250,958.45.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 62 reports in 90 days of FY2011 averaging 4.99B$ per report, 3.44B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 753 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.9 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/29/2010 13,870,949,681,979.42 BHO (UP 3,244,072,633,066.34 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,309,326,651,087.70 ------------* * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,254,491,418,300.12 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/09/2010 +000,426,018,289.04 ------------********
12/10/2010 +000,085,971,333.21 ------------*******
12/13/2010 -000,140,409,571.73 --- Mon
12/14/2010 +000,270,507,131.41 ------------********
12/15/2010 +035,075,952,728.32 ------------**********
12/16/2010 -002,942,603,716.29 --
12/17/2010 +002,071,215,295.43 ------------*********
12/20/2010 -000,083,147,973.47 ---- Mon
12/21/2010 +000,210,432,562.88 ------------********
12/22/2010 +000,569,620,034.56 ------------********
12/23/2010 +001,962,709,844.10 ------------*********
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********

38,735,805,646.89 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4675957&mesg_id=4676352

I am taking my computer in later this morning for some repairs/tweaking, and I'm not expecting it back until next week sometime.
So I wanted to take a minute this morning to say Thank You for your selfless generosity in hosting the SMW these last years.
I expect it's been a labor of love for you, but still a labor. This lurker has gained a lot of insight over the years following this thread, even though I'm not much smarter in economics than I was when I started. At least I now know the markets are not ruled by supply and demand anymore but pure unbridled greed.
I'm not very good with words. So thank you again and enjoy your "retirement". Hopefully you will still post in this thread from time to time, as will all the other regulars I've learned fom here.
If I may ask a favor, please leave the Friday SMW thread up for a few extra days so I can read it once I am online again.
Peace and Joy, my friend.
:hug:
hamerfan
:donut:

I thank you, too, for your steady participation over these years. Your generous sentiment resonates profoundly.

I will pop in from time to time but only after Pale Blue Dot has settled into this role. As for Friday's thread - the thread will always be here, somewhere, in the LBN forum. I know that it tends to get buried after a day. Would you like me to send you the address via PM?

Enjoy your spruced-up computer. We'll meet again.

:hi: :donut:

Please do PM me the address if you happen to remember. If not, I will find it and kick it myself.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-12-28-1Ajobless28_ST_N.htm?csp=hf

So many Americans have been jobless for so long that the government is changing how it records long-term unemployment.

Citing what it calls "an unprecedented rise" in long-term unemployment, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), beginning Saturday, will raise from two years to five years the upper limit on how long someone can be listed as having been jobless.

The move could help economists better measure the severity of the nation's prolonged economic downturn.

The change is a sign that bureau officials "are afraid that a cap of two years may be 'understating the true average duration' — but they won't know by how much until they raise the upper limit," says Linda Barrington, an economist who directs the Institute for Compensation Studies at Cornell University's School of Industrial and Labor Relations...

SEE ALSO CHART OF THE DAY:

http://e.businessinsider.com/view/pje.3eg/64ccf01c

one teaspoon at a time.:shrug:

Statistical hocus-pocus only serves as a P.R. tool for political window dressing.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/austerity-may-not-be-enough-to-save-the-eus-weakest-links-2171096.html

Analysts at the credit ratings agency Moody's have issued a stark warning that even with budget deficit programmes and savage cuts in public spending across the eurozone some of the weaker peripheral nations will still default on their debts, requiring a "restructuring".

They say: "It is hard to escape the conclusion that austerity will not end the debt crisis, and that restructuring may be necessary, as Germany's Chancellor Merkel has indicated."

NOBODY SAID THEY WANTED TO SAVE THE COUNTRIES....

Eurozone end-of-year financial market tensions have been highlighted by the European Central Bank’s failure to reabsorb funds it has spent on buying government bonds

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/ZE9K33/M9ZMAI/XBAN6/D4GJ3M/A73KDD/PJ/t?a1=2010&a2=12&a3=29

save no. I never thought I would say this but at least the Vikings left you a little something to rebuild with, and the loan shark generally just break a few bones if you come up short.

These parasites aim to kill the host they are so greedy. This will be their undoing.

The world’s largest money manager expects to launch an internal trading platform next year in a move that would strike at the heart of the profit centres of many Wall Street firms

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/QM42II/26R3S2/SUO9T/YHQZM0/KE6FTO/KI/t?a1=2010&a2=12&a3=29

US watchdogs are investigating the secondary market for private company stocks, a largely unregulated investment arena that has seen the valuations of top technology companies such as Facebook, Zynga and Twitter soar

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/QM42II/26R3S2/SUO9T/YHQZM0/QFALOI/KI/t?a1=2010&a2=12&a3=29

http://attempter.wordpress.com/2010/12/23/the-limits-to-racketeering/

According to Joseph Tainter’s theory of imperial collapse, as societies become more complex, they must expend an ever greater portion of the energy they have available simply on maintaining their complexity. Although social and technological advances may achieve profitable returns for awhile, once a certain level of complexity is reached, diminishing returns set in. Eventually, at the late imperial stage, the complexity of the power structure, the military infrastructure, the bureaucracies, all the rents involved in maintaining an ever more bloated parasite class, their luxuries, the police state required to extract these rents and keep the productive people down, and the growing losses due to the response of the oppressed producers, everything from poor quality work to strikes to emigration or secession to rebellion, reaches a point where the system can only cannibalize itself and eventually collapse.

Julian Assange’s theory of the secrecy tax he’s trying to impose through Wikileaks is one example of these diminishing returns on imperial complexity. All the indications are that Wikileaks has been successful in this.

One dynamic of the system which makes citizen action so difficult is its distributed responsibility for repressing the people. But perhaps the same dynamic also generates an inner weakness.

The way things are today, anyone who wants to reform anything, anywhere (or in the case of politicians, pretend to try to reform) finds himself blocked by some vested interest which pops up to resist. There’s always a particular criminal who, in defending his own piece of the action, also takes the lead in defending the corporatist system as a whole, in that particular fight. The resources of change are always more thinly and broadly distributed than the force of the status quo, which concentrates immediately in the form of that special interest. That’s the way kleptocracy works. That’s also part of the reason regulation of rackets can never work...

MUCH MORE AT LINK

I'D LIKE TO THINK THERE WERE LIMITS, BECAUSE NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO REACH THEM,.....

http://modeledbehavior.com/2010/12/22/the-strange-case-of-bank-profits-in-the-broad-daylight/

A COMPANION PIECE

I'D LIKE TO THINK THERE WERE LIMITS, BECAUSE NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO REACH THEM,....."
Perfect, Demeter!
:fistbump:

I thought so.

V V V V V -- My special friend, Ed, agrees with you.

Funny how criminals don't go away and keep committing crimes until they're held accountable. Funny, at least to lying politicos who like to say things like "who could have ever imagined it".

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/12/perry-merhling-should-anyone-be-surprised-that-the-fed-was-lending-to-foreign-banks-in-the-crisis.html

...Now comes the news that the Term Auction Facility, created in December 2007 as a kind of anonymous discount window, lent on a fully collateralized basis directly to non-US banks. Personally, I did not know this until the disclosure, but I am not surprised. I had thought that TAF was lending only to the New York correspondents, who were marking it up and on-lending the money to the non-US banks. So it was new information for me, but not surprising information.

In other words, anyone who was paying attention knew quite well that the Fed was lending indirectly to non-US banks, using domestic banks and then foreign central banks as conduits. It could hardly be otherwise. The Fed is lender of last resort for the domestic dollar funding markets; inevitably it serves also as lender of last resort to the international dollar funding market.

http://www.newdeal20.org/2010/12/28/in-2011-watch-for-more-de-facto-decriminalization-of-elite-financial-fraud-31135/

The role of the criminal justice system with regard to financial fraud by elite bankers in 2011 is likely to reprise its role last decade — de facto decriminalization. The Galleon investigation of insider trading at hedge funds will take much of the FBI’s and the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) focus.

The state attorneys general investigations of foreclosure fraud do focus on the major players such as the Bank of America (BoA), but they are unlikely to lead to criminal liability for any senior bank officials. It is most likely that they will lead to financial settlements that include new funding for loan modifications.

The FBI and the DOJ remain unlikely to prosecute the elite bank officers that ran the enormous “accounting control frauds” that drove the financial crisis. While over 1000 elites were convicted of felonies arising from the savings and loan (S&L) debacle, there are no convictions of controlling officers of the large nonprime lenders. The only indictment of controlling officers of a far smaller nonprime lender arose not from an investigation of the nonprime loans but rather from the lender’s alleged efforts to defraud the federal government’s TARP bailout program....

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/12/28/ice-trust-pulls-clearinghouse-registration/?ref=business

The world’s largest clearinghouse for credit-default swaps, ICE Trust, has had second thoughts about registering with regulators, citing concerns over new rules devised to bring transparency to the $600 trillion derivatives market.

ICE Trust, a division of the Intercontinental Exchange, the big derivatives exchange, applied to be a derivatives clearing organization with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in November. Last week, the company quietly withdrew its application.

In a Thursday letter to the commission, which was released on Tuesday, a lawyer for ICE Trust said the company changed its mind because of “significant changes proposed to” regulations for clearing organizations.

The gesture may be symbolic. In July, ICE Trust will automatically be granted status as a clearinghouse, under the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul law...

And they're killing the real economy.

Sitting in cafes around here, ol' Judge Lynch is starting to show his face a bit.

I THINK IT IS SEVERAL ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE WORSE--FDR COULD MAKE CHANGES WITH A STRONG CONGRESSIONAL MAJORITY BEHIND HIM.

CHANGES TODAY WILL HAVE TO COME FROM OUTSIDE WASHINGTON, BECAUSE THE WIDESPREAD POLITICAL CORRUPTION HAS FORECLOSED THAT OPTION.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/12/guest-post-underneath-the-happy-talk-is-this-as-bad-as-the-great-depression.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

The following experts have – at some point during the last 2 years – said that the economic crisis could be worse than the Great Depression:

* Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke

* Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan (and see this and this)

* Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker

* Economics scholar and former Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin

* The head of the Bank of England Mervyn King

* Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz

* Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman

* Former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead

* Economics professors Barry Eichengreen and and Kevin H. O’Rourke (updated here)

* Investment advisor, risk expert and “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb

* Well-known PhD economist Marc Faber

* Morgan Stanley’s UK equity strategist Graham Secker

* Former chief credit officer at Fannie Mae Edward J. Pinto

* Billionaire investor George Soros

* Senior British minister Ed Balls

*

How could that possibly be, when the stock market has largely recovered? (Let’s forget for a moment that the stock market rallied after 1929, but then crashed in a double dip).

To find out, we’ll look at a couple of comparisons to get an idea of what is going on in the rest of the economy. And then we’ll compare the government’s efforts in the 1930s to today...

Groupon has been granted permission to raise $950 Million in equity financing through the sale of equity in the company.

From The Street:


I have conflicting thoughts about Groupon. It is a great concept that can generate repeat customers for local businesses. However, I know many small business owners who have participated in Groupon promotions and consistently lost money on the deal. According to my sources, the customer who uses a Groupon coupon is not very likely to return. The local restaurant listserv has been busy with harsh words and warnings about the pitfalls of Groupon promotions. This leaves me wondering if an IPO is premature given the shiny newness of the company.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/12/matt-stoller-end-this-fed.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

LENGTHY AND WELL WORTH REREADING...

http://epi.3cdn.net/aa45091cca898ca622_tjm6bn7po.pdf

DATELINE 1991, PEOPLE.

http://economicsofcontempt.blogspot.com/2010/11/proposal-for-money-market-fund-reform.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+economicsofcontempt+%28Economics+of+Contempt%29

There were two major areas of financial regulation that Dodd-Frank left rather conspicuously unaddressed: the GSEs, and money market funds (MMFs). The reason they omitted GSE reform is obvious: GSEs are a fiercely partisan issue, and including GSE reform could easily have — and, I think, almost certainly would have — killed the entire financial reform package. (Yes, the GSEs are that toxic.)

There were two reasons the administration omitted MMF reform: one, the SEC was already in the process of adopting substantial new regulations for MMFs, and two, there was nothing approaching a consensus on MMF reform. With other areas of financial reform, there was generally broad consensus on what needed to be done: an FDIC-like resolution authority, a systemic risk regulator, central clearing for standardized derivatives, a CFPB, etc. But with MMFs, no one really knew what to do yet (myself included). So the administration directed the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (PWG), which consists of the Treasury Secretary, and the Chairmen of the Fed, SEC, and CFTC, to prepare a report on MMF reform options. I give the administration credit for acknowledging that they simply didn't know what to do about MMFs yet...

http://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2010/11/the-political-economy-of-cfpb-funding.html

Useful info that eluded me earlier..

The appointment of Elizabeth Warren to a post. Although, TPTB seem intent on taking out the teeth.

It happening at all must be some kind of cosmic mistake... I mean out of the other 2 gazillion recommendations I sent in this one made it. Either, it's "The Broken Clock Phenomenon" at work or just about EVERYBODY sent in the same thought.

FROM THE HORSE'S MOUTH...

http://4closurefraud.org/2010/11/29/wikileaks-it-could-take-down-a-bank-or-two/

Too bad it's grim ROFL since it's all too true.

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5859

In recent years, hundreds of billions of dollars of investment has flowed into commodities markets. This column describes why and how commodities markets have grown so rapidly and discusses some policy implications...

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/11/guest-post-greece-%E2%86%92-ireland-%E2%86%92-portugal-%E2%86%92-spain-%E2%86%92-italy-%E2%86%92-uk-%E2%86%92.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

It is now common knowledge that there is a potential domino effect of European sovereign debt contagion in roughly the following order:

Greece → Ireland → Portugal → Spain → Italy → UK

While some people have been writing about this for well over a year, many others have joined the party late (there are now over 600,000 hits from a Google search discussing this topic.)

It is also now common knowledge that while Greece and Ireland have relatively small economies, there will be real trouble if the Spanish domino falls.

Iceland has the world’s 112th biggest economy, Ireland the 38th, and Portugal the 36th. In contrast, Spain has the world’s 9th biggest economy, Italy the 7th and the UK the 6th. A failure by one of the latter 3 would be devastating for the world economy.


I RECALL SPECULATION THAT IT WAS THE SIZE OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY WITHIN THE COUNTRY THAT WAS THE CRUCIAL POINT...

12/28/10 TrimTabs' Biderman Interview on U.S. Stocks, Economy

Charles Biderman, chief executive officer at TrimTabs Investment Research, talks about the U.S. economy, stock market and investment strategy. Biderman, speaking with Pimm Fox on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance Midday," also discusses the Federal Reserve's policy of quantitative easing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/65552920/ 13 minute video interview


12/29/10 Additional analysis by John Xenakis via his Generational Dynamics blog

According to Charles Biderman, CEO of investment research firm TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc., the real estate market is crashing again, and there's no sign of an improvement in unemployment. The stock market is doing well only because money from quantitative easing (QE) is being used to prop up stock prices, and that money is scheduled to end soon.

much more analysis, and a partial transcript of the Biderman interview
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e101229#e101229

THIS GOT LOST IN THE NEWS AND THE HOLIDAY...

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/11/26/the-continuing-fight-against-overdraft-fees/

Even before the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau gets up and running, other branches of the government are fighting the good fight against excessive overdraft fees. First came the Fed, of course, which forced banks to get their customers to opt in to the fees, at least when it comes to ATM and POS transactions: no longer can they charge them automatically.

But then something very odd happened. The Fed rule came into effect on July 1, and by mid-September Moebs had some data on the number of bank customers who had decided to opt in:

About 90 percent of overdraft revenue comes from frequent users. The Moebs study noted frequent users, those with 10 or more overdrafts in a year, almost all opted in. For all consumers, consent varied between 60 percent and 80 percent with a median of about 75 percent.

This astonishes and depresses me no end. Most banking customers are relatively unharmed by overdraft fees; by far the greatest damage to consumers, and the greatest profits for banks, came from the poorer customers who could least afford it. Essentially, overdraft fees were a way for the banks to monetize the naiveté and imprudence of their least-sophisticated customers, and the Fed rule was meant to put an end to such predatory price-gouging. Evidently, it failed: Moebs reckons that banks’ total overdraft revenue will hit $38 billion in 2011, a new record high...

The sick and the old.

A couple of old folks I know almost fell for it... and opted in. But, I was able to dissuade them.

12/28/10 HYMAN MINSKY’S SEVEN BUBBLE STAGES

The late Hyman Minsky, Ph.D., was a famous economist who taught for Washington University’s Economics department for more than 25 years prior to his death in 1996. He studied recurring instability of markets and developed the idea that there are seven stages in any economic bubble:

Stage One – Disturbance:
Stage Two – Expansion/Prices Start to Increase:
Stage Three – Euphoria/Easy Credit:
Stage Four – Over-trading/Prices Reach a Peak:
Stage Five – Market Reversal/Insider Profit Taking:
Stage Six – Financial Crisis/Panic:
Stage seven – Revulsion/Lender of Last Resort:

much more about each of these bubble stages...
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/12/morning-update-market-thread-1228.html

and from my brief experience, pretty accurate. I would put us at 4-5, a nice time for the smart money to sit on the sidelines. Don't worry if you get out 'too early'. It is better to retain some profit than lose your principal. I am rebalancing now.

intersecting bubbles. (Venn diagrams, anyone?) Stock market may be 4-5, housing more like 6, PM still on the way up. All of which, of course, gets into the whole complexity thing and interconnectivity.

Could it be -- and I'm just tossin' this out there for the sake of discussion because I know very very little about Minsky's theory -- that a true crash only occurs when all the planets are aligned, meaning all existing bubbles converge and pop at the same time? And that as long as one or two are still floating around, they serve as (unstable) props to the others? I don't know. I'm just askin'.



TG, TT

I was thinking of the stock market when I posted. Housing is lower and dragging WS down. The only thing we have to compare to in recent memory is the Depression. Maybe the drag from housing is pulling down PM or vis versa. Interesting.

Again, this isn't my area of expertise, but maybe we should look at how the USSR collapsed.

The 1930s Great Depression hit a nation and an economy (not necessarily the same thing) that were still on the way up. There was still a substantial agricultural base, and manufacturing as a portion of the economy was still contributing to GNP, whereas FIRE was virtually non-existent. And government intervention in the economy -- via SS, farm subsidies, VA , FHA, etc -- was nowhere near as extensive as AFTER the Depression.

But what about comparisons to the USSR after Afghanistan? Not the same kind of economy -- ours is consumer based and import based -- but their collapse was certainly catastrophic in terms of the change from what had been, but without quite the level of violence of 1918.

So where is the comparison, and how do the two scenarios match up?


TG, TT

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/12/has-american-military-spending-really.html

Which was what I had suggested (in a more rudimentary fashion) when I wondered if the reason the troops weren't being withdrawn had to do with the number of people it would throw into the pool of unemployed.

The Communist Revolution started in earnest when the poor Russian Army came home. It may explain why the HS is ramping up. It isn't for terrorists-it is to corral an armed population. They will want to get those guys into HS to prevent a revolt.

"... there is no winning, only degrees of losing!"

Using the military, which is a form of destruction as a Keynesian Stimulus, which is a form of construction does not make sense no matter how you word it.(period)

How are a tornado and a WV divorce alike?
You just know somebody is going to end up losing a trailer

:hi: Dana ; )