Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (01/13/2011)

Source: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 445,000, an increase of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 410,000. The 4-week moving average was 416,500, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 411,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Jan. 1, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 1 was 3,879,000, a decrease of 248,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,127,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,056,500, a decrease of 72,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,128,500.

Read more: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20110023.htm

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This information is released every Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

"Seasonally adjusted initial claims was 445,000, an increase of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 410,000."

That's about 20 million people a year losing their jobs, due to NO fault of their own, filing for unemployment benefits. It does NOT include part-timers who lose their jobs, the self employed who have lost their businesses and those who have not worked long enough to be eligible for benefits.

Will the economy ever improve to substantially lower the unemployment rate?

:(

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-claims-surge-445k-expectations-410k-not-adjusted-claims-surge-191686-770413-one-week



So much for that amazing beat in the last 2010 number in initial claims, which is now proven to have been purely a figment of the BLS' imagination and a whole load of guesstimations. Today's initial claims number throws cold water to all those who expected the trend in claims to be improving. At 445K, this was a huge miss to expectations of 410K, and a major deterioration from last week's (upwardly revised of course) 410K (was 409K before). Elsewhere, continuing claims came at 3,879K on expectations of 4,088K (with the previous naturally revised higher as well from 4,103K to 4,127K). And the kicker: in NSA terms initial claims were a mammoth 770,413, a 191,686 increase in just one week, and the highest NSA number in one year! The result: the spread between SA (3.1%) and NSA (3.8%) unemployment rate jumps to year highs. Of course, the BLS blames the huge disappointment on "paperwork delays", yet blamed nobody for the amazing beats in the end of 2010 which brought the market to a complete frenzy.

Lastly, completing the trifecta of bad data, those on various forms of extended claims jumped by 130K, confirming that we are nowehere close to dealing with the "99 week completion" cliff issue, as ever more people roll off continuing claims.

Thank the nameless, faceless GS-9s, GS-11s, and so on who do the work instead. All I do is cut and paste.

Thanks for the kind words anyway.

Source: Bloomberg

The number of first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments jumped in the first week of 2011 to the highest level since October as more Americans lined up to file following the holidays.

Initial jobless claims rose by 35,000 to 445,000, according to Labor Department data released today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey called for 410,000 filings. The average number of applications over the past four weeks, a less-volatile gauge, increased to 416,500.

Today’s figures follow a report last week showing the U.S. added fewer jobs than forecast in December, underscoring the concern of Federal Reserve policy makers about the labor market. Economic growth may need to accelerate further and encourage companies to ramp up the hiring necessary to reduce the unemployment rate.



Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/initial-jobless-claims-in-u-s-increase-more-than-estimated-to-445-000.html

When unadjusted claims fall will you bring that up too?

The claims should just be reported and then compared to the. previous year's month in question.

I'll dig up the chart if I get time, but the adjustment has had a significantly increasing impact on the reported results in the last few years.

changes in population? The fact is that the seasonal adjustment factors are published well in advance. It's not possible to use it as a "manipulation" when the SF index is already available months beforehand.

we can't apply for jobless benefits, so we are never included in these statistics.

Self employed have always been included in the Labor Force Statistics (the Unemployment rate, as opposed to Unemployment Insurance).

Starting in February, with the January figures, the report will distinguish between incorporated and unincorporated self-employed.

From December's Employment Situation, Table A-8 there were 775,000 self-employed agricultural workers and 8,783,000 self employed non-agricultural workers (seasonally adjusted). And by Table A-14 there were 650,000 unemployed self-employed with an unemployment rate of 6.5%