STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, February 1, 2011

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Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

Feb 01 10:00 Construction Spending Dec -0.5% -0.4% 0.4%
Feb 01 10:00 ISM Index Jan 57.5 58.4 58.5 57.0
Feb 01 15:00 Auto Sales Feb NA NA 3.90M
Feb 01 15:00 Truck Sales Feb NA NA 5.56M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

Construction spending in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in December to the lowest level in a decade, signaling the industry will continue to lag behind the economic recovery.

The 2.5 percent drop was the biggest since July and brought the value of all projects down to a $787.9 billion annual rate, the lowest since July 2000, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.1 percent gain.

Mounting foreclosures and an unemployment rate that will average more than 9 percent in 2011 indicate homebuilding may take time to rebound. Non-residential projects also will slow as budget-constrained state and local governments restrict funding for public works such as highways.

“Housing will remain lackluster for at least another year,” Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Group in New York, said before the report. “The imbalances aren’t fully corrected yet.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/construction-spending-in-u-s-unexpectedly-fell-to-decade-low-in-december.html

Yes, they're lagging behind the "economic recovery". I can't wait to see this month's "Head up your ass" report - it should be WAY up.

I wonder if we should have an award for people who don't have a clue.

And lackluster for another year? :rofl: How about a decade?

I didn't have a clue.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Conditions for the nation's manufacturers improved for the 20th straight month, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday. The ISM index rose to 60.8% in January from 58.5% in December. This is the highest level of the factory index since last May. The report was much stronger than expected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch was for the index to remain steady at 58.5%. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. Below the headline, the report was also strong. The key employment index improved to 61.7% in January from 58.9% in December. New orders jumped to 67.8% in January from 62% in the prior month. Input prices soared in January. The price index jumped to 81.5 from 72.5 in the prior month.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jan-ism-factory-index-picks-up-to-608-2011-02-01

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $92 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as a chaotic power struggle in Egypt raised the risk of disruptions to the Suez Canal — a major route for oil tankers to Europe and North America.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was down 11 cents to $92.08 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $2.85, or 3.2 percent, to settle at $92.19 on Monday.

Opposition leaders are planning a massive street protest in Cairo on Tuesday in a bid to oust 82-year-old President Hosni Mubarak as an uprising against his 29-year rule begins its second week. Egypt's military said Monday it would not use force on marchers and recognized "the legitimacy of the people's demands."

Oil has jumped about 8 percent in the last two trading sessions on fears that chaos in Egypt could disrupt the 2 million barrels of crude per day that pass through the Suez Canal and an adjacent pipeline. So far, the Suez remains open, and shipping has not been interrupted.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

BP Plc, Europe’s second-biggest oil company, reinstated the dividend and will sell two U.S. refineries as it recovers from the Gulf of Mexico spill.

Shares dropped after profit fell short of analysts’ expectations. BP will pay a dividend of 7 cents a share for the last three months of 2010, half the level before the spill, after canceling the payout for the first three quarters. It plans to dispose of its Texas City, Texas and Carson refineries.

Chief Executive Officer Robert Dudley is making the company “smaller” and “more agile” following the worst spill in U.S. history that cost his predecessor Tony Hayward his job. The company has so far slimmed down by selling $22 billion of assets and agreed to an $8 billion share swap with OAO Rosneft to give it access to untapped Russian reserves in the Arctic Kara Sea.

Today’s results “in isolation imply a modestly negative trading reaction,” said Jason Kenney, an analyst at ING Wholesale Banking in Edinburgh. “The U.S. Gulf of Mexico has presented an opportunity to downsize and refocus on higher upstream returns and improved growth.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/bp-reinstates-quarterly-dividend-after-fourth-quarter-profit-increases-30-.html?nstrack=sid:5021541|met:102|cat:47|order:2

Who says the good guys never win?

U.S. farmers are planting the fewest acres with rice since 1989 just as global demand surpasses production for the first time in four years, driving prices as much as 12 percent higher by December.

Plantings in the U.S., the third-biggest shipper, may drop 25 percent this year because growers can earn more from corn and soybeans, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts and farmers. Rice, the staple food for half the world, declined 4 percent last year, extending a 2.9 percent drop in 2009. The other crops jumped 34 percent or more.

“Why would you want to take that risk to plant rice, knowing that your income is going to be way down?” said Terry Hatley, a farmer in Marked Tree, Arkansas, who may not plant any rice this year after growing the crop for more than three decades. “Farming is a business, and you’ve got to look at the economics of it. Now, the economics on rice are very dim.”

Bangladesh, South Asia’s biggest buyer, doubled a target for imports in 2011 to curb prices, the Directorate General of Food said last week. The Philippines, the world’s largest importer, will probably start buying next month, according to the National Food Authority. While global stockpiles are predicted to be 26 percent higher this year than in 2007, consumption will gain 3.4 percent and harvests 2.6 percent, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-30/rice-rebounding-from-two-year-drop-as-u-s-crop-falls-to-lowest-since-1989.html

What perfect timing! :sarcasm:

A winter storm sweeping through the U.S. has caused more than 2,800 flights to be canceled today and threatens to break snowfall records in Chicago, coat New York City in ice and add to Boston’s heaviest accumulations in years.

Snow had begun falling in Chicago as of 4:30 a.m. local time and the city could get close to two feet (61 centimeters), breaking a 44-year-old record. New York may receive 3 to 5 inches plus 0.3 of an inch of ice, according to Nelson Vaz, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Upton, New York.

“It’s going to be a two-stage storm and the strongest punch will be late Tuesday night into Wednesday,” Vaz said by telephone. “Anytime you’re talking over a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch of ice, that can cause problems. It is going to be hazardous conditions.”

A blizzard warning stretched from Wisconsin to Oklahoma including Chicago yesterday, while winter storm warnings, watches and advisories covered the U.S. from Maine to New Mexico, according to the weather service. As of 11:30 p.m. East Coast time, 2,806 flights were canceled, according to FlightAware, a Houston-based firm that tracks flight data.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/storm-cancels-flights-may-set-chicago-snow-record-coat-new-york-with-ice.html

It makes them feel important when they get extra air time to scare us about "the storm of the decade." My unofficial count is that 80% of the time or more, far less snow falls than they predict.

If they're right, though, well, this is why we northerners love our 4-wheel drive SUVs. My Tahoe can drive through 12" of snow. Unfortunately, my wife's car only has about 6" of ground clearance. And our son's sports car has about 2.

This year, however, as I sit at home on the 5th snow day in the past 4 weeks (with another one likely tomorrow), I have to note that in my area the forecasters have actually been underpredicting the snow.

It's amazing how little the massive economic impact of these storms is being discussed. It's going to kill retailers and retail profits; state and local budgets, already in crisis, are going to go further into the red due to all of the clean-up costs; productivity is going to be lost across the economy. How come the markets don't seem to be worried? I'm a little terrified myself (although admittedly, that's my default mode right now).

a windchill of -10. Not expected to get above 30 until Friday.

Monday was 73 degrees.

We always see videos of people trying to drive on the snow who don't understand the concept of reduced traction. Whee! Actually, we see the same thing in Michigan every year right after the first snow of the season. Give them a few months of summer and they forget slipping and sliding can happen.

It reminds me of Hyman Minsky's (Inevitable) Financial Instability Hypothesis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_Instability_Hypothesis#financial_instability_hypothesis

The first snow becomes a "Minsky moment" for a lot of drivers.

Snow coming down like rain. Roads look awful. Supposed to get a break late in afternoon and then more heavy snow over-night. School cancelled here today and if report accurate, probably tomorrow too.

They seem to be right on. The initial blast brought 8 in. of fresh powder this morning. Calling for another 15-20 today and tomorrow, with winds of 40-50 mph.

Flamethrower?

so far, only a thin coating, but could amount to 1.5 inches as the day progresses

And her daughter called and said they just shut down Manchester NH until Friday.

We'll try again then. In the mean time, we'll suffer through this 80 degree weather.

Bondholders said the Ivory Coast has missed its deadline to pay interest on $2.3 billion of bonds, becoming the first country to default in a year. President Laurent Gbagbo’s government said it will pay, without giving a date.

The $29 million of interest that was due by midnight in New York after a 30-day grace period hasn’t been received, said Samir Gadio, an emerging-market strategist at Standard Bank Plc in London, which owns the bonds, and Felix Dornaus, who has the debt among about 1.4 billion euros ($1.9 billion) of developing- nation assets he helps manage at Erste Sparinvest KAG in Vienna.

“We will be making the payment,” Alcide Djedje, foreign affairs minister in the Gbagbo administration, said in an interview in Addis Ababa, where he is attending an African Union meeting. “We do have the money of course. We have been paying civil servants. I don’t have a date yet but we will definitely pay.”

The West African nation, which the International Monetary Fund says had $3.28 billion of foreign-currency reserves as of September, has been in political stalemate since incumbent President Gbagbo, 65, and his rival Alassane Ouattara, 69, both claimed victory in the November elections. Clashes have led to the deaths of at least 271 people and thousands fleeing the country, according to the United Nations.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/ivory-coast-bondholder-calls-default-on-2-3-billion-of-debt-by-gbagbo.html

Is this Islamic fundamentalism? Is it a desire for more western-style democracy? Was there a particular triggering event? Did the Koch brothers pay for it?

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/2007829161423657345.html

on the right you can click on the photo captioned "Anger in Egypt" and link to a page with lots articles

But in a lot of ways it seems to come down to - they had enough. Enough torture. Enough repression. Enough poverty and unemployment. Enough corruption. Enough fake elections. Interviewee from the opposition leadership speaking now - says they will not "talk" to Mubarik or his appointees - he must step down, he must go away.

They have stood down the brutal police. They were not intimidated by the army. They are not appeased by these too-little too-late cabinet appointments and promises of reform.

You can get a flavor from Mona Eltahawy over at Common Dreams: http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/01/31

It looks like their million - at least - there now in Cairo - I have chills watching this.

2011 Egyptian protests
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Egyptian_protests

maybe some helpful info

It was always an obtuse reading of the dynamics of power, as well as basic human yearning, to imagine that the Arabs would remain marooned in tyranny for ever AND YET US FOREIGN POLICY WAS BASED ON THIS VERY NOTION!
Read more >>

http://link.ft.com/r/3JFELL/ZBRGMT/NRHD3/YHSZ13/S34ZLD/OS/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=1

Darn imports.

Protests started with students protesting the lack of jobs but those protests were manageable until the rise in food prices inspired the rest of the population to protest along with the students.


edit: Also the issues of religion, Israel, etc. all are just distractions. Arabs are out of jobs, food and hope.

The truth is that for years the police especially have been a law unto themselves, humiliating ordinary citizens whenever they get an opportunity, which has been constantly of late. This is something the regime has actively encouraged.

This is a bread revolution on top of decades of humiliation and abuse, getting rid of a ruler who's long outstayed his usefulness and who has degenerated into arrogance, cynicism and paranoia.

It's the oldest revolutionary story out there. People are abused for decades but when they start to skip meals, all hell breaks loose.

The dollar fell for a second day against the euro and slid against the yen amid speculation that a global economic recovery is building momentum, boosting stock markets and reducing demand for safer assets.

The euro strengthened as a report showed manufacturing growth in the currency region was stronger than first estimated, bolstering the case for the European Central Bank to raise borrowing costs. Australia’s dollar climbed as its central bank signaled business investment is rising. South Korea’s won strengthened as a report showed exports increased. Indonesian and Indian data also showed growing exports. The greenback slid to an 11-week low against the pound on speculation that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year.

“There are a lot of indications that the growth momentum is very robust, and that tends to work in the euro’s favor against the dollar and underpin the more risk-sensitive G10 currencies,” said Henrik Gullberg, a currency strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “An increased focus on inflation and the fact that the European Central Bank has relatively strong inflation-fighting credentials compared to the Fed is putting the dollar under pressure.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/dollar-is-near-2-month-low-versus-euro-on-view-global-economy-improving.html

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures advanced, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will gain for the seventh time in eight days, amid optimism that earnings will improve and economic growth will accelerate.

Newmont Mining Corp. advanced 1.3 percent, leading gains among raw-material companies as copper and tin prices soared to record highs in London after manufacturing in China expanded and input costs climbed.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in March gained 0.4 percent to 1,288 as of 10:29 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 0.3 percent to 11,875 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures advanced 0.5 percent to 2,292.5.

“Valuations are still looking pretty good,” said Max King, a London-based investment strategist at Investec Asset Management, which oversees about $55 billion. “We always thought the U.S. economy would do better than people thought and earnings have been coming in better than expected.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPODT64s3eAE

A letter signed by over 250 economists opposing restrictions on capital controls is more of a shot across the bow than it might appear to be. The letter with signatories appears here, and it includes highly respected trade and development economists like Ricardo Hausmann, Dani Rodrik, Joe Stiglitz, and Arvind Subramanian; we are reproducing the text below:



This letter is at odds with a longstanding project of major financial firms: to allow them to move money across borders with no muss or fuss. This was the dream of Citibank’s Walter Wriston, who perversely was not deterred by the large losses his bank incurred in its sovereign lending misadventures of the late 1970s. It became a matter of policy in the Rubin/Summers Treasury Department.

Although the danger of destabilizing “hot money” inflows has been well recognized since the Asian crisis of 1997, the thrust of US policy has been to continue to push for more capital markets liberalization, particularly in emerging economies. Yet the evidence has continues to mount that a high level of international capital movements isn’t merely a potential threat to developing markets, but to economic stability. As we’ve pointed out repeatedly, the Carmen Reinhart/Kenneth Rogoff work on financial crises showed a strong correlation between high levels of international funds flows and banking crises.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/a-whole-bunch-of-prominent-economists-backs-the-use-of-capital-controls.html

BUFFALO, NY (WKBW-TV) - National Grid plans to layoff nearly 1,200 employees by March of 2012 as it restructures to increase local focus, improve customer service and deliver efficiencies.

It is not clear right now how they layoffs will affect the roughly 900 employees that work for National Grid here in Western New York.

The Massachusetts based company says it is committed to improving its U.S performance that will create a more locally focused organization led by regional presidents responsible for understanding and meeting the needs of customers, communities and regulators in each state or jurisdiction where the company operates.

The new regional presidents are: Marcy Reed, Massachusetts; Kenneth Daly, New York; Timothy Horan, Rhode Island/New Hampshire; John Bruckner, Long Island; and Peter Flynn, FERC Regulated Businesses and distribution system on Long Island.

http://www.wkbw.com/news/local/National-Grid-to-Reduce--114937319.html

3:56pm | Facing another massive budget deficit in the 2011-12 school year, the Long Beach Unified School District board of education tomorrow will discuss sending layoff notices to more than 600 employees - most of them teachers.

The notice is required of the LBUSD if they intend to enact layoffs, though it does not mean that the district will ultimately fire the full 621 employees. The district must notify employees of the possibility of layoffs, but will not negotiate with the teacher's union until summer. Only then will it emerge how many employees are at risk.

Tomorrow's meeting will consist of a preliminary presentation of the issue, and the Board will not officially decide anything regarding layoffs until February 15.

"Even those receiving notcies by the mid-March deadline won't necessarily be laid off," said LBUSD spokesperson Chris Eftychiou today. "The hope is that down the line we get better news and can back away from some of these reductions."

http://www.lbpost.com/news/ryan/11028

The city neither Los Angeles County or Orange County wants!

This city has been on the skids since the late 1960's and had a 90 degree downward slope at the wind-down of the Vietnam War. If you think Los Angeles was the crack capital of the world, think again, Long Beach was just kept out of the news. All of this is first hand knowledge of watching a society die a slow death at the hand of idiots.

right. It is astonishing to me that anyone in MSM reports such nonsense with a straight face.

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The world economy is beset by problems such as high unemployment and rising prices which could fuel trade protectionism and even lead to war within nations, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday.

Rising food and fuel prices in recent months have already hit poorer countries and are one of the factors behind massive anti-government protests in Egypt and in Tunisia, whose president was ousted last month.

"As tensions between countries increase, we could see rising protectionism -- of trade and of finance. And as tensions within countries increase, we could see rising social and political instability within nations - even war," Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in a speech in Singapore.

Strauss-Kahn noted two "dangerous" imbalances that he said could sow the seeds of the next crisis.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Joblessness-rising-prices-may-rb-3949164382.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

CAIRO (AP) -- Standard & Poor's on Tuesday dowgraded its rating on Egypt and warned that another cut was possible as a week of violent protests demanding the ouster of the president has almost crippled the nation and ground the economy to a virtual standstill.

S&P became the third international ratings agency in under a week to downgrade Egypt because of the unrest that has gripped the Arab world's most populous nation. Demonstrators have focused their anger on a leader they say is sorely out of touch with their daily economic plight.

Egypt's long-term foreign currency sovereign rating was lowered to BB from BB+, S&P said. The cuts still left the rating within the investment grade category, but reflected the increasing alarm with which investors are viewing the developments in Egypt. S&P warned that it could issue another downgrade -- possibly by more than one notch -- within the next three months.

"The rating actions reflect our expectation that the violent demonstrations of the past week will persist, despite the appointment of a vice president and the dismissal of the government by President Hosni Mubarak," said S&P credit analyst Kai Stukenbrock.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Egypt-debt-rating-downgraded-apf-1289757208.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

(Good day.)
Two wines and no whining about the wine or the rednesses.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,412,882,434,158.15 + 4,643,629,929,471.20
UP 2,605,585,609.92 + DOWN 5,502,381,658.99

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,212.93 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,242,592 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,162.56.
A family of three owes $135,487.68. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 7,794,869,899.84.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,976,066,923.21.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,783,290,570.85.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 83 reports in 120 days of FY2011 averaging 5.96B$ per report, 4.12B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 723 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.0 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/28/2011 14,056,512,363,629.35 BHO (UP 3,429,635,314,716.27 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,494,889,332,737.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,505,288,387,076.87 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/07/2011 +000,022,074,863.06 ------------*******
01/10/2011 -000,254,217,892.29 --- Mon
01/11/2011 +000,490,152,520.38 ------------********
01/12/2011 -000,273,054,954.79 ---
01/13/2011 -005,996,045,152.69 --
01/14/2011 +000,146,255,477.48 ------------********
01/18/2011 +038,613,327,669.01 ------------********** Tue
01/19/2011 +000,009,950,983.18 ------------******
01/20/2011 -000,687,286,291.06 ---
01/21/2011 -000,057,867,302.74 ----
01/24/2011 -000,181,687,031.14 --- Mon
01/25/2011 +000,059,189,192.13 ------------*******
01/26/2011 -000,112,154,254.52 ---
01/27/2011 -004,717,116,457.79 --
01/28/2011 +002,605,585,609.92 ------------*********

29,667,106,978.14 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4716249&mesg_id=4716273

(Good day.)
Two hospitals today in Flint.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,485,416,860,164.29 + 4,645,634,195,846.55
UP 72,534,426,006.14 + UP 2,004,266,375.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,212.70 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,264,192 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,398.9.
A family of three owes $136,196.69. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,039,801,776.30.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,527,861,243.41.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,414,059,267.82.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 84 reports in 123 days of FY2011 averaging 6.78B$ per report, 4.63B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 720 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/31/2011 14,131,051,056,010.84 BHO (UP 3,504,174,007,097.76 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,569,428,025,119.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,689,766,090,800.59 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/10/2011 -000,254,217,892.29 --- Mon
01/11/2011 +000,490,152,520.38 ------------********
01/12/2011 -000,273,054,954.79 ---
01/13/2011 -005,996,045,152.69 --
01/14/2011 +000,146,255,477.48 ------------********
01/18/2011 +038,613,327,669.01 ------------********** Tue
01/19/2011 +000,009,950,983.18 ------------******
01/20/2011 -000,687,286,291.06 ---
01/21/2011 -000,057,867,302.74 ----
01/24/2011 -000,181,687,031.14 --- Mon
01/25/2011 +000,059,189,192.13 ------------*******
01/26/2011 -000,112,154,254.52 ---
01/27/2011 -004,717,116,457.79 --
01/28/2011 +002,605,585,609.92 ------------*********
01/31/2011 +072,534,426,006.14 ------------********** Mon

102,179,458,121.22 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4717589&mesg_id=4717631

With annual food inflation hitting 7.2 per cent and stocks running dry, the state-controlled company that makes China’s most famous moutai brand raised prices 20 per cent

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/3JFELL/ZBRGMT/NRHD3/YHSZ13/EWB1Y6/OS/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=1

JUST IN TIME FOR NEW YEAR, TOO

The European Central Bank suspended its emergency purchases of eurozone government bonds last week as the debt crisis eased, allowing it to focus on combating rising inflation

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/3JFELL/ZBRGMT/NRHD3/YHSZ13/A71NW6/OS/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=1

By persuading customers across the Pacific to build using wood instead of cement, the Canadians are realising a long-held dream: to shake off their dependence on the US

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/3JFELL/ZBRGMT/NRHD3/YHSZ13/NSA0NK/OS/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=1

Bank of America has tied its chief executive’s 2010 bonus to the lender’s performance over the next four years, highlighting the spread of longer-term compensation schemes on Wall Street

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/DHGUVV/40UCR2/OFBYP/FX0NW6/LQV69L/LE/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=1

The company’s flagship 787 Dreamliner has benefited from illegal US government subsidies that have distorted market competition, according to the World Trade Organisation

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/DHGUVV/40UCR2/OFBYP/FX0NW6/QFM2NB/LE/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=1

Some of you may be aware of the ongoing saga we have been having with our village mayor and police chief

see previous posting from 12/8/10
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4648408&mesg_id=4648593


At our last village meeting on 1/25/11, spouse had a discussion with the mayor and police chief which made the front page of the Springfield, Ohio newspaper

1/29/11 Enon Police Chief's lie rankles village council
http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/springfield-news/police-chiefs-lie-rankles-council-1067113.html

In our local Enon paper, there is additional info, and an audio link!

1/29/11 Council Members Upset Over Police Chief Lie
“To have our head law enforcement officer say in an open meeting that he can lie to us,” said Council President Steve Trout, “I have a problem with that.”
http://www.enoneagle.net/index.php/news/573-council-members-upset-over-police-chief-lie.html

direct link to the 5-minute audio
http://www.enoneagle.net/audio/callahan-1-25-11.mp3
:)

A falling gold price means people think things are under control…that they believe the present system works…and that it will deliver growth without excessive inflation. When people lose confidence in the system, on the other hand, the gold price goes up. By the end of last week, people must have been losing confidence.

Egypt seemed on the brink of a major blow-up, possibly destabilizing the entire mid-east. And from Japan came more disturbing news:

“S&P Downgrades Japanese Debt,” said the headline. Standard and Poor’s said Japan had no plausible plan for keeping itself from bankruptcy. The country has the highest debt to GDP ratio in the world. And it just keeps adding debt.

Is that a problem? Lenders – mostly the Japanese themselves – don’t seem to think so. They lend money to the Japanese for 10 years and ask only 1.24% interest. Can you imagine? If the yen lost only 2% per year – which is the TARGET in most advanced economies – the real interest rate would be negative. Meaning, the lender would lose money every year. And how will the Japanese repay the money? Lenders are putting up money to a borrower who, as the S&P puts it, has ‘no plausible plan’ for paying it back. And asking only 1.24% interest. What are they thinking? Are they thinking at all?

Saving rates in Japan are falling. People are getting older. More people are retiring than entering the workforce. How can this movie possibly have a happy ending?

Meanwhile, here’s another headline. This one probably didn’t rattle investors. But it should have shown them where we’re headed:

Dr. Ron Paul (R-TX) is back at it, reintroducing legislation in the House to audit the Fed. However, not only is he taking this bull by the horns as newly-appointed chair of the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy (which includes responsibility for Fed oversight), but he’s now got a new ally in his son, Senator Rand Paul (R-KY), who has at the same time also introduced a Senate version of Fed-audit legislation.

According to the Wall Street Journal:



The original legislation did receive early support from some other members of Congress, but at the time never managed to garner the full attention it deserved as part of the also controversial financial regulation behemoth. After going through that legislative process any remnant of his initial bill was essentially declawed. Odds are both Pauls will keep as intense a spotlight on the issue as they can, and for as long as they have that ability. You can read more details in the Wall Street Journal’s coverage of Rand and Ron Paul introducing twin Fed-audit bills.

Best,

Read more: Ron and Rand Paul Tag Team Fed With Audit Legislation http://dailyreckoning.com/ron-and-rand-paul-tag-team-fed-with-audit-legislation/#ixzz1CiN1AodK

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704254304576116501352537700.html?mod=dist_smartbrief



State tax collections increased 6.9% in 41 states that have reported their revenue, according to a report to be released Tuesday by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York.

If that pace of gains holds once the rest of the states have reported, it would be the fastest growth in tax revenue since the second quarter of 2006, which was more than a year before the recent recession began.

Income taxes climbed 10.7% across the 41 states. Those with notable rebounds include California, where income-tax collections rose 32% in the fourth quarter, compared with the same period a year earlier. Indiana and Massachusetts saw income-tax collections increase 15.9% and 15.8%, respectively.

I am in awe. Riveted. Struck dumb with wonder. Endurance. Resolve. Solidarity.

Why doesn't Mubarik leave? Food is running low in the city. He must go before the peace breaks down.

I know, I know, it's just a number. But I like numbers. Especiallys 3's.

that Mr. Assange promised for January. Or did I miss something?

:evilgrin: