STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday, February 25, 2011

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday, February 25, 2011

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Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

Feb 25 08:30 GDP - Second Estimate Q4 3.4% 3.3% 3.2%
Feb 25 08:30 GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q4 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Feb 25 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Final Feb 75.5 75.1 75.1

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The economy grew much slower than originally thought at the end of 2010, according to new estimates released by the government Friday.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, was revised sharply lower to an annual growth rate of 2.8% in the three months ending in December. The initial reading had been for a 3.2% growth rate in the period.

That's a surprising dip, given that economists were expecting the rate to be revised upward to 3.3%.

The revision came as consumers spent less than originally expected, and the country imported more goods than in the initial report. Less state and local government spending also lowered the rate.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/25/news/economy/gdp_revision/

And that is only just beginning.

The maniacal GOP budget cutting and spiking oil prices are threatening to drive us back into negative GDP territory, throttling the barely-there recovery in its crib.

Republicans are hell bent on keeping any growth down until November 2012.

They see it as the only chance of taking back the White House.

There won't be any White House left by 2012.

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $98 a barrel Friday in Asia, backing away from a spike to $103 the day before amid signs the crisis in Libya may have cut crude supplies less that previously estimated.

Benchmark crude for April delivery was up $1.10 at $98.38 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It fell as low as $96.39 earlier in the day. The contract on Thursday dropped 82 cents to settle at $97.28 after massive swings.

In London, Brent crude for April delivery was up $1.28 to $112.61 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil climbed as high as $103 on Thursday before the International Energy Agency said that the violent uprising in Libya has forced oil companies to idle between 500,000 and 750,000 barrels per day of production, or less than 1 percent of global daily oil consumption. That's roughly half of what Italy's Eni, Libya's largest oil producer, had estimated.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

*sigh*

Because at $3.259, it was the cheapest in town. Sigh. Citgo was $3.329, and everything else was more...

7 cents a gallon, if you've got a 20-gallon tank, is $1.40.

If your vehicle gets 10 miles to the gallon, you'll recoup that $1.40 by driving roughly 5 fewer miles per tank.

If your vehicle gets 20 miles to the gallon, you'll recoup by driving 10 fewer miles.

Etc.



TG, TT

Every day, at least 50 miles. I don't get the option of driving less. And when I'm driving, I'm not doing highway miles. I'm lucky to average 15 mpg. And they "renegotiated" my contract to half the previous compensation.

the current overall economic situation has put us in. It sucks. It really does. And I know that there are times when $1.40 is the same as $1,400,000 -- if you don't have it when you need it.

I'm not perfect either. None of us is. I don't buy gas at Exxon-Mobil, and I do my best to avoid Chevron. But I didn't really need to drive those 4.8 miles this morning just to have coffee (over priced and not very good at that) with friends. I could have stayed home and done something productive.

Like make some jewelry. Wait a minute, who really NEEDS jewelry? And am I not using scarce potable water in the desert just to polish stones?

Essentially, Demeter, you're asking to be forgiven for being human. Apparently you feel somewhat guilty about the choice to buy the cheap gas at Sam's, and that's why you asked for forgiveness. So I put some stats out there, and I figure of you can make up that $1.40 somewhere and really want to, you will.

Otherwise, it's no big deal. No forgiveness necessary.


Tansy Gold, who took a big pay cut last year too.

Beat your loved ones, commit incest and pederasty, fraud and theft, sex in public restrooms, it's all good. Just beat your breast and confess and you are forgiven...that's not my problem.

My problem is I am not wealthy. Not even close. Hence, I am never forgiven--if God saw fit to punish me with poverty, then all good Christian fundies will shun me, and turn their backs as I forage among their leavings for the means to keep body and soul together.

I don't forgive what doesn't need to be forgiven.

Gov Scott and the new repuke Orlando mayor would see fit to expanding the LYNX bus service to include some express lines coming in from the major arteries all the way to downtown. Boggles my mind how there's not even really one.

U.S. stock-index futures rose, indicating that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will trim its biggest weekly drop since August, before reports that may show economic growth accelerated and consumer confidence improved.

Boeing Co. jumped 5 percent in Germany as the company beat European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. to supply the U.S. Air Force with 179 refueling airplanes. American International Group Inc. climbed 1.2 percent after reporting a profit. First Solar Inc. sank 4.7 percent after reducing its sales guidance.

March contracts on the S&P 500 advanced 0.5 percent to 1,309.8 at 11:11 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures also gained 0.5 percent to 12,093 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures fell 0.7 percent to 2,324.

“The correction was overdue,” said Matthias Jasper, head of equities at WGZ Bank AG in Dusseldorf. “The markets are very nervous and driven by political uncertainty at the moment but I am not overly concerned. I expect ongoing support from the macro-economic side. The best thing is to remain invested in equities.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/u-s-stock-futures-rise-boeing-climbs-on-air-force-refueling-contract-win.html

Just in case there was any confusion in the interpretation of the M2 chart, here is the latest just released Adjusted Monetary Base.



A succinct reminder from Mises Institute: "The Adjusted Monetary Base is the one monetary component completely under the control of the Federal Reserve." As we expected a month ago when predicting the end of the SLP program, look for this chart to surge to about $2.7 trillion as the combination of SLP unwind and another $500 billion in UST purchases adds another $600 billion to the BASE. The increase of $142 billion in the last two weeks is the 5th largest Adjusted Monetary Base expansion in history. The ongoing verticalization of this chart may result in some further acuteness of inflationary expectations.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/adjusted-monetary-base-goes-vertical

In other words, hold onto your hats, folks, 'cause inflation like we haven't seen for many many years is on its way???



Tansy Gold, who remembers when a friend was urged to lock in a mortgage "deal" at 14%. . . .

whistling Dixie. I remember when mortgage rates went up to about 19 and people went to balloon mortgages to finance a house. Holy Mother of God. I think we found your Grand Canyon. Start getting you canned goods ready and hide your gold and guns.

This combined with the unemployment....:puke:

A Certificate of Deposit bearing 15% interest back then.

I was paying prime plus 2...Went as high as 23%. When the note got cleared, it was still at 14% plus change. That was a tough time to start a business, and even tougher to stay afloat.

I rode a 350 Yamaha one winter. on days my wife needed a vehicle. (Which was just about every day it didn't snow) 26 miles in zero degree weather (with no wimpshield) was not a picnic

One winter back then, my car was broken. I rode a '65 Panhead for half the winter. I still remember the night I hit a sheet of ice, where a water main had sprung a leak and frozen. Wheeeee.

and some people today think a mortgage rate of 5% is too high
:crazy:

any debt at any rate, even zero, is too expensive. As the Zombies have discovered...

If not, we'd have to look at M2/3 and be :scared:

NPR story this morning Re core costs for P&G. $1.2Bil in additional raw material expenses, and production expenses primarily due to higher petroleum/energy. The company does not expect to be able to pass all the increases along.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

doesn't take into account 27 million people unemployed, and the continuing decline in housing costs in posts like this one where the data says there are about 7 distressed homes for every one listed on the MLS...

I know there will be some, but I do wonder if people are not figuring in the lack of sales, 'cause one can pump money out, but if it doesn't have any place to go, you may not see inflation - i.e. Japan.

That said, this goofy policy of creating zeroes for the banks needs to be reworked so that it creates jobs for everyone else. TPTB have to know there will be a price to be paid for throwing away 27 million people who are underemployed...

or at least, bad dreams. Tipping Point!

Every county is three meals away from a regime change. I think after Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya....TBTB are starting to catch on.

Remember, these are people who think medieval-style serfdom and slavery is perfectly okay. As long as they have their billions and can hire 4,000 slaves to build them a car, THEY DON'T CARE.

They do not care about "the economy" because they know "the economy" is a function of a working society. They don't want that. They want to destroy anything and everything that doesn't directly benefit them and ONLY them.

They.

Don't.

Care.


Unfortunately, I guess, we still do.



TG, TT

Those are perfectly okay, too, in this New World Order.

some scary stuff there w/M2

(Good day.)
Now, what causes high incidence of cancer in a building?
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,492,079,418,519.44 + 4,633,383,257,788.07
UP 604,643,024.49 + DOWN 3,698,614,379.66

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,211.00 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.63, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,429,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,356.81.
A family of three owes $136,070.44. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 2,840,248,558.30.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,177,523,894.70.
The average for the last 33 days would be 1,979,567,177.00.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 100 reports in 146 days of FY2011 averaging 5.64B$ per report, 3.86B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 697 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/23/2011 14,125,462,676,307.51 BHO (UP 3,498,585,627,394.43 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,563,839,645,415.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,409,599,113,539.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/02/2011 +000,160,101,452.72 ------------********
02/03/2011 -011,756,222,449.85 -
02/04/2011 +000,096,985,369.31 ------------*******
02/07/2011 -000,024,110,721.58 ---- Mon
02/08/2011 +000,098,708,298.02 ------------*******
02/09/2011 +000,070,875,766.12 ------------*******
02/10/2011 -016,083,331,993.98 -
02/11/2011 -000,131,455,172.80 ---
02/14/2011 -001,050,366,540.96 -- Mon
02/15/2011 +048,146,191,309.44 ------------**********
02/16/2011 +000,114,208,468.26 ------------********
02/17/2011 -011,510,944,063.77 -
02/18/2011 +000,193,465,100.84 ------------********
02/22/2011 +000,575,498,293.73 ------------******** Tue
02/23/2011 +000,604,643,024.49 ------------********

9,504,246,139.99 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4746372&mesg_id=4746416

(Good day.)
Saturday, Saturday, everlovin' Saturday… ooh.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,485,547,122,223.65 + 4,634,260,699,795.84
DOWN 6,532,296,295.79 + UP 877,442,007.77

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,210.92 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.63, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,436,992 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,337.61.
A family of three owes $136,012.82. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 2,502,952,921.69.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,918,930,573.29.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,857,029,587.06.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 101 reports in 147 days of FY2011 averaging 5.53B$ per report, 3.80B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 696 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/24/2011 14,119,807,822,019.49 BHO (UP 3,492,930,773,106.41 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,558,184,791,127.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,385,969,039,194.63 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/03/2011 -011,756,222,449.85 -
02/04/2011 +000,096,985,369.31 ------------*******
02/07/2011 -000,024,110,721.58 ---- Mon
02/08/2011 +000,098,708,298.02 ------------*******
02/09/2011 +000,070,875,766.12 ------------*******
02/10/2011 -016,083,331,993.98 -
02/11/2011 -000,131,455,172.80 ---
02/14/2011 -001,050,366,540.96 -- Mon
02/15/2011 +048,146,191,309.44 ------------**********
02/16/2011 +000,114,208,468.26 ------------********
02/17/2011 -011,510,944,063.77 -
02/18/2011 +000,193,465,100.84 ------------********
02/22/2011 +000,575,498,293.73 ------------******** Tue
02/23/2011 +000,604,643,024.49 ------------********
02/24/2011 -006,532,296,295.79 --

2,811,848,391.48 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4748045&mesg_id=4748062

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/matt-stoller-the-liquidation-of-society-versus-the-global-labor-revival.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29



That’s the number of strikes since 1947. What you’ll notice is that people in America just don’t strike anymore. Why? Well, their jobs have been shipped off to factory countries, their unions have been broken, and their salaries until recently have been supplemented by credit. It’s part of a giant labor arbitrage game, that the Federal Reserve and elites in both parties are happy to play. Strike, and you’re fired. Don’t strike, and your pay is probably going to be cut. Don’t like it? Sorry, we can open a plant abroad. And we have institutions, like the IMF, to make sure that we get goods from those factory-countries, and get them cheap.

But it’s not cheaper, or better, or more efficient. Firing your teachers isn’t exactly “winning the future”. And outsourcing manufacturing, as Boeing found out, is often a good way to increase coordination costs, create more operational risk, and destroy value. However, the system is good at maintaining the power of oligarch-style control of cultural institutions. If no one but the kids of rich people can read, only the kids of rich people will be able to organize society’s resources. Outsourcing work to China means that workers are scared and have no leverage, so they do what management wants. Again, this isn’t efficient; the UAW sought to make small cars in the 1940s, but was rebuffed by management. Workers are closest to production; treating them terribly is a good way to degrade product quality. Silicon Valley companies give their engineers free snacks and frisbees because happy employees that take ownership over their work create good quality products. Treating people terribly scares them, and makes them more pliable. Again, it’s about control.

The problem for the elites is that the system of control is breaking down. I noted a week and a half ago that the Egyptian revolution was a labor uprising against Rubinites. So to the extent that global labor arbitrage relies on sweatshops and environmental degradation in poor countries for cheap goods, successful strikes in poor countries undercuts the whole system. The reason to outsource work in the first place is to prevent workers in rich countries from gaining pricing and political power. Now workers in poor countries are getting pricing and political power? It’s actually a fragile system of control, and can be broken through either crackdowns on tax havens and oligarchs in wealthy countries or protests/strikes where the goods are made.

The Egyptian revolution was really a series of protests and highly politicized strikes, which is why people in Madison are taking inspiration from Cairo. In fact, the actions in Egypt may be creating a wave of labor actions worldwide, rippling to Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio. All of these strikes are aimed at a collusive set of tight relationships...

AND I'VE GOTTEN MY COPY OF "THE TIPPING POINT" OUT, FIGURED NOW WAS A GOOD TIME TO FINISH READING IT...

Your chart, and Pale Blue's in #4 combined, is the Tipping Point.
When the inflationary effect on existing wages topples the point of acceptable sustenance for the average worker we then get Cairo.
The elites were extraordinarily successful in demonizing the American worker (even as the most productive in the world), and brain-washing the average worker that unions are bad. I had a interesting exchange with a tragically uninformed swimming-pool cleaner the other day about this.
But the power remains with the people ultimately.
If the recession, unemployment, and wage stagnation was not enough to arouse the public that someone was picking their pockets; then the latest offensive from the elite - where they actually come after those who are still employed - may prove to be the flash point.
The Tipping Point will be when the money runs out for the serfs. At that point, I would not want to be in the upper 2%. It will not be pretty.
They are now screwing with firemen, cops, nurses, teachers (always a punching bag), and the average Joe & Jane. Game on.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/mortgage-fraud-whitewash-20-billion-get-out-of-jail-free-settlement-floated.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

...the latest scam is that the banking regulators are finalizing a mortgage “breakdown” settlement, and they’ve evidently decided to let the industry off the hook for a mere $20 billion...the US was very quick to hand out funds right, left, and center during the financial crisis. It’s continuing to do so now in less obvious ways, by continued life support for the mortgage market through Fannie and Freddie, the Fed’s super low interest rates and QE2, and non-monetary measures, most important its refusal to make any sort of serious investigation into what happened in the crisis and prosecute key actors.

Most observers, yours truly included, had expected very little from the multi-regulator “foreclosure task force” announced last year. It was clearly designed to be an even more cosmetic exercise than the stress test charade, which does take a certain amount of brazenness (or more likely, confidence in the public’s inability to follow the three card monte). But a bad situation devolved; the Treasury had appeared to be in charge, and that department at least tries to put a minimum level of professional spit and polish into its charades. When OCC acting chair and chief bank enabler John Walsh got up to speak in an official capacity about the process in last week’s Senate Banking Committee hearings, it was evident there was not even going to be an effort to pretend that this was a serious undertaking.

Even so, the mortgage “settlement” trial balloon floated in the Wall Street Journal this evening is an offense to common sense and decency. Notice how the word “fraud” is pretty much verboten in the MSM; the latest code word for what went awry is “breakdown”. This implies a benign sort of neglect, simply of not doing sufficient maintenance which led fussy machinery to quit working. It is mean to avoid contemplating, let along uncovering, Pinto-type decisions of weighing the costs of making the vehicle safer versus the litigation losses resulting from incineration by exploding gas tanks.

The magic number across the industry is a mere $20 billion in civil fines or payments to fund loan mods. We know from BP not to have a great deal of confidence in settlement funds...

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/does-a-13-percent-drop-in-homes-prices-since-june-qreflect-an-improved-economyq?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+beat_the_press+%28Beat+the+Press%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

According to the Washington Post it does. The Post reported on the modest rise in existing home sales in January reported by the National Association of Realtors. The increase in sales was accompanied by a sharp plunge in prices with the median sale price now 13.1 percent below the recent high set in June.

As the article suggests, it appears that many investors were buying up foreclosed properties at low prices. This is a necessary part of the return to normal in the housing market, but it is a bit misleading to describe this story as reflecting an improved economy.

The owners left last June, but hadn't made a payment in at least six months. There has been no foreclosure action listed anywhere, nor has there been a single visit from anyone who looks like they might represent the lien holder, Chase Bank.

The owner's stepson and girlfriend and toddler were squatting in it for a few weeks in August or September, until the electricity got turned off for good. They departed, leaving behind piles of bags of garbage, stained carpeting torn out and thrown in the yard, an old mattress on the front porch.

A few weeks ago, someone started tearing parts of the interior off. The BF called the sheriff's dept and they sent someone out to look, but there was nothing they could do.

The BF has attempted to secure the place so it doesn't become a sanctuary for unwelcome critters; we can deal with coyotes or bobcats making dens under the house but are more concerned about rattlesnakes. Yesterday he reported that he had inspected the property again and there has been further vandalism. Exterior outlets have been removed along with water connections and other "salvage" materials. There is still furniture inside and no one appears to have attempted to get in, but the place is well on its way to becoming a tear down, little more than an improved 1.25 acre lot with fencing.

Two of the homes across the street are also vacant.




TG, TT

Waiting for "gentrification" may take longer than a lifetime, or even two.

Structurally it appears sound. There are no broken windows, at least not yet.

It's not quite like the abandoned houses in Detroit. . . . at least not yet.


The sheriff's deputy two weeks ago said there's really nothing they can do. No one seems to know where the owners are -- some have said Ohio, others Oklahoma, and we're not sure if they know the difference. Chase holds the mortgage (at least they're the recorded mortgagor) and has done nothing. I have no idea what the status is on property taxes or how that affects title if one just pays the back taxes but there's still a mortgage. It could be that Chase is paying the taxes to keep it out of tax sale.

But it's very unpleasant to live next to it and know there's nothing you can do.



TG

foreclosures and short sales are still aplenty but for new construction, I'm seeing prices higher noticeably.

Example: same floorplan as our house is how for sale for $17k more and it doesn't have the added bonus room upstairs. I would have thought the builder would have heavily discounted it since it's one of about the last 3-4 left in the development (they've emptied the model home and will have it for sale soon...they're moving on to two other developments - one of which is a much higher-end development that has about 15 completed homes out of probably 200 before the developer went bust a couple years ago...they're going to finish that one out so perhaps things are picking up a bit down here)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-23/blackrock-buys-25-stake-in-bank-venture-run-by-ex-treasury-aide.html

BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest money manager, acquired a 25 percent stake in a community banking cooperative started by Lee Sachs, a former aide to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Terms weren’t disclosed.

Alliance Partners, based in Chevy Chase, Maryland, has assembled a cooperative network of banks called BancAlliance, the company said in a statement. BancAlliance seeks to provide its members with more lending opportunities to reduce their reliance on real estate loans and assets....

Sachs last month started Alliance Partners, aimed at helping smaller regional banks lend to a wider base of borrowers. Lenders that join BancAlliance’s network will be able to elect the partnership’s board of directors.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-24/wheat-extends-collapse-after-north-african-unrest-drives-away-speculators.html

Wheat extended a collapse and corn and soybeans also fell as traders speculated that a jump in energy costs caused by protests across North Africa and the Middle East will curb growth and demand for grains.

Riots already ousted leaders in Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, and in Tunisia, and opposition groups have seized control of eastern cities in Libya. While wheat traded in Chicago dropped 11 percent in the past four sessions, crude oil traded in New York jumped 12 percent.

Grain prices surged last month as North African and Middle East nations bought more shipments to damp a surge in domestic prices that helped spark the protests from Morocco to Bahrain. Speculators including hedge funds last week cut their bets on higher wheat prices by 20 percent, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

“Investors continue to exit grain positions in favor of energy and financial markets due to anxiety over political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa,” Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading Inc., said by phone from Fowler, Indiana. “The markets are focused on the negative impact that higher energy prices may have on the global economy and food demand.”


WATER SLOSHING IN A BATH TUB

OR MAYBE--QUID PRO QUO?

OIL UP, SO DROP FOOD SO SAUDIS AND ALL CAN BUY OFF THE DISSIDENTS?

The 7.9 percent plunge in wheat since Feb. 18 and a decline in corn and soybeans means speculators probably kept cutting positions this week, said Nic Johnson, who helps manage about $30 billion in commodities at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California. Speculators reduced bets on rising wheat prices by 23 percent in the week ended Feb. 15, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Bullish bets on soybeans fell 18 percent and those for corn slid 3.4 percent.

Holdings in eight agriculture commodities by money managers are higher than during the global food crisis three years ago.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/hedge-funds-cutting-food-price-bets-as-grain-prices-take-harrowing-fall-.html


I still believe the major reason food prices are so high is due to hedge funder speculation. There are no rules so hedgers are running amok.

MY FAVORITE ECONOMIST--I READ HIM FAITHFULLY IN WSJ, AND THEN HE MYSTERIOUSLY DISAPPEARED....AROUND THE TIME OF REAGAN.

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/02/23/austeritys-inauspicious-historical-precedents/

MUST READ

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/24/usa-housing-gses-idUSN2430067320110224

Mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB) on Thursday asked for an additional $500 million in taxpayer aid after reporting its sixth straight quarterly loss.

The second-largest U.S. residential mortgage funds provider reported a loss of $113 million in the fourth quarter, a tiny fraction of the double-digit billions the firm lost in the quarters immediately after the government seized it more than two years ago.

Including the latest request, Freddie Mac will have received more than $64 billion in direct aid from the government. The fourth-quarter loss, about $0.53 per share, includes a $1.6 billion dividend payment the company paid to the government...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022407520.html

The former treasurer of one of the country's largest mortgage firms - Taylor, Bean & Whitaker - pleaded guilty Thursday in U.S. District Court in Alexandria to charges of participating in a $1.9 billion fraud scheme.

Desiree Brown, 45, of Hernando, Fla., was accused of participating in a scheme that contributed to the collapse of Colonial Bank in Alabama, one of the nation's largest regional banks. She was also charged with participating in a fraudulent but unsuccessful effort to extract $570 million of federal bailout funds from the Troubled Assets Relief Program. The case is being prosecuted by the Justice Department's criminal division and the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of Virginia.

In a parallel civil action announced Thursday, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged Brown with aiding and abetting securities fraud and an attempt to cheat TARP.

The case is one of the largest to emerge from the crisis that brought the nation's financial system to the brink of collapse...

We did NOT get 10 inches of snow last night--but the poor souls south of the highway did. We got less than two inches of Ivory Snow-like fluff. The sun came out, but it's still below freezing.

Both the local Blockbuster video store and the local Borders are going out of business...we are left with the scratched up public library stock, retail sales, Amazon, Red Box, Netflix, and Blockbuster on line, none of which offer the kind of discrimination and quality I want. Forget the local theaters-- there hasn't been a decent family flick in months.

The dog park was like Antarctica today: the puppy had a wonderful time, but didn't object to getting out of the wind after I reached my limit (about 5 minutes). He's such a joyous sight, with his beagle ears flopping, and his Lab tail in the air like a flag, and he scoots like a rabbit.

Everybody needs a puppy.



Because I'm feeling especially uncreative, this WEEkend will finish off the Presidential review...in hopes that March will bring some Spring to my steps!

OR>>>>

We could go into the Oil Bidness....

Anybody have a preference? If not this weekend, certainly the next...

How about celebrating that we are finally into the third half of this winter?

I think we are into overtime by now. I have cabin fever bad, claustrophobia from too many layers of clothing. The days I wear only one pair of pants seem like summer.

I dream about opening the windows....and wonder what those foolish swans are doing, right now. They were a month early, at least.

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=CLJ11.NYM&lang=en-US®ion=US&width=300&height=180

It appears that Oil is the only thing that matters anymore.

Since at LEAST WWI.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cboe-to-relaunch-credit-event-binary-options-cebos-contracts-on-march-8-116651809.html

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) announced today that on Tuesday, March 8, the Exchange will begin trading newly-designed Credit Event Binary Options (CEBOs) contracts.

Credit Event Binary Options contracts allow investors to express an opinion on whether a company will experience a "credit event" (bankruptcy). Due to inverse correlations between credit and equity markets, CEBO® contracts can be used as a hedging tool for individual stocks. The contracts also provide the advantages of price transparency available through a regulated exchange, currently unavailable in over-the-counter credit default swaps markets.

A CEBO contract has just two possible outcomes - a payout of a fixed amount if a credit event occurs or nothing if a credit event does not occur...