STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, March 29, 2011

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Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

Mar 29 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jan -3.5% -3.3% -2.38%
Mar 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 64.0 65.0 70.4

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm#ixzz1HzFt8HXy

Residential real estate prices probably dropped in January by the most in more than a year, raising the risk that home sales will keep slowing, economists said before a report today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 3.2 percent from January 2010, the biggest 12-month decrease since November 2009, according to the median forecast of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show consumer confidence declined in March as gasoline prices climbed.

Rising foreclosures are swelling the number of houses on the market, which may lower prices further in coming months. Falling home values, in turn, may keep potential buyers on the sidelines waiting for better deals, hurting construction and consumer spending as owners’ equity evaporates.

“The more home prices fall, the easier it is for people to wait to buy, and that can reinforce the downward cycle,” said Steven Blitz, a senior economist at ITG Investment Research, Inc. in New York. “The flip side is people still need to sell because you’ve got a lot of people who have stressed budgets.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-25/home-prices-in-u-s-probably-dropped-consumer-confidence-rose.html

the buyers set the true price, not by the folks underwater (God Bless them)or the banks holding all those houses on some set of books somewhere (God curse them). Buyers are setting the price now, and it is not what folks think. It is based on a realistic rate based on current actual salaries outside the loop. What houses sell the best here in Houston? Not the $120-$250K jobs that you see advertised. The hottest sellers are $65-100K, because realistically, based on salaries here-that is what is truly affordable to folks. Bankers and RE agents may not want to here it, but that is the truth. Until they come to terms with that fact, the housing market outlook will remain poor.

Banks are soon to discover that nothing deteriorates faster than a vacant house. They will check their inventory and discover that, by being selfish and pig headed they have lost whatever gains they sought to get. The only way for them to be forced into getting rid of their inventory is for city and state to sue for property taxes owed and upkeep of lots and even demolition services if needed so the land can be freed up.

Hubby and I are hoping to get properties via tax sales and maintain/rehab them to resell at a more reasonable rate. We make enough profit to make it worth our time and folks get a nice home for a reasonable price. We want to be the Mom and Pop answer to the Tilsons or Perry homes.

Horrible, but very slightly less of a drop than expected. We'll see how the market reacts.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Consumer confidence experienced its biggest decline in more than a year, falling sharply in March because of growing concerns about rising prices and stagnant incomes, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The nonprofit Conference Board said its consumer-confidence index dropped to 63.4 in March from a revised 72.0 in February, marking the biggest one-month decline since February 2010. The index had risen five straight months until backtracking in March.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the index to decrease to 62.2 from February’s initially reported level of 70.4.

The decline mirrors the results of several other surveys of consumer optimism, including Gallup and Reuters/University of Michigan.

The slow pace of hiring, meager wage increases and rising prices of gas and food are the biggest concerns of consumers. Americans grew more pessimistic about the jobs market in March and fewer people expect their incomes to rise.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-falls-sharply-in-march-2011-03-29-1035120

SINGAPORE – Oil prices extended losses below $104 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as traders eyed gains by Libyan rebels seeking to topple Moammar Gadhafi and restart crude exports from the OPEC nation.

Benchmark crude for May delivery was down 50 cents to $103.48 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract dropped $1.42 on Monday to settle at $103.98.

In London, Brent crude was down 48 cents at $114.10 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange.

Oil prices have come off near two-year highs above $106 last week after coalition bombing pushed back Gadhafi forces and allowed rebels to retake key oil ports. Fighting is expected to become more fierce as rebels approach the capital Tripoli — a Gadhafi stronghold.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

U.S. stock futures climbed, indicating that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rebound from yesterday’s late selloff.

Halliburton Co. (HAL) retreated 1.3 percent after the world’s second-largest oilfield-services provider said disruptions in the Middle East will “severely” hurt results.

S&P 500 futures expiring in June rose 0.1 percent to 1,303.9 at 10:39 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.1 percent to 12,128 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures climbed 0.2 percent to 2,300.75.

“There are still plenty of worries, but the market seems to be taking it in its stride,” said Lawrence Peterman, investment director at Eden Financial Ltd. in London. “The U.S. economy seems to be a little bit patchy, but going in the right direction.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29/u-s-stock-index-futures-rise-halliburton-drops-on-middle-east-disruption.html

“The U.S. economy seems to be a little bit patchy, but going in the right direction.”
And exactly which direction is that?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29/dying-banks-kept-alive-show-secrets-fed-s-data-will-reveal-for-first-time.html

U.S. regulators closed Chicago- based Park National Bank in October 2009 when it owed $345 million to one of the lowest-cost lenders in town: the Federal Reserve’s discount window. Park National had been a constant customer at the window for more than 18 months before it failed, records show.

That glimpse into the loan program, gleaned through the Freedom of Information Act, will be expanded this week with an unprecedented view of the secret lifelines the Fed extended to hundreds of banks. Officials plan to release documents that amount to more than 6,000 pages, according to court records. Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, and News Corp.’s Fox News Network LLC requested the records under FOIA, then sued after the central bank refused to release them.

Without identifying them as of yet, Fed officials say all the discount window loans made during the worst financial crisis since the 1930s have been repaid with interest. Cases such as Park National’s show how the lending amounted to a secret public subsidy, with few questions asked.

“Solvency is the big issue,” said Arthur Wilmarth, a professor at George Washington University Law School in Washington. “Was the Fed keeping banks alive when they should have died?”

Banks were able to tap the window for loans at rates below the market after subprime mortgage defaults contributed to record losses for them and credit markets began to seize up....

READ IT AND WEEP--MUST SEE!

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/Power-Plant-One-Small-Leaf-Could-Electrify-an-Entire-Home-72156.html?wlc=1301359069&wlc=1301366070

Scientists at MIT have created what may be the first practical artificial leaf -- a device about the size of a playing card capable of splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen and storing the energy in a fuel cell. Placing the leaf it in a single gallon of water in sunlight could produce enough electricity to supply a house in developing countries with its daily electricity requirement, according to researchers.


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A team of scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has developed what it describes as the first practical artificial leaf.

The device, made from silicon, electronics and catalysts, is the same size and shape as a playing card, but thinner.

It splits water into its two components, hydrogen and oxygen. These are then stored in a fuel cell and used later to generate electricity.

"It's really cool stuff -- they're taking a solar cell and turning it into a battery," Carl Howe, director of anywhere consumer research at the Yankee Group, told TechNewsWorld.

"You can think of this as the first dark solar energy because it'll give you solar energy at night in the form of light," Howe added.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18706eb4-5973-11e0-bc39-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss&ftcamp=crm/email/2011329/nbe/WorldNews/product#axzz1HzMUw3Cz


Angela Merkel, German chancellor, has blamed Japan’s nuclear crisis, triggered by this month’s earthquake, for the “very painful defeat” suffered by her ruling party in the state of Baden-Württemberg...Some centre-right figures urged Ms Merkel to “draw the consequences” and change her centralised way of governing after Sunday’s defeat...Ms Merkel shrugged off criticism and attributed her defeat to events elsewhere, insisting “Japan means we cannot simply stick to business as usual”.

Ms Merkel’s electoral setback means that the leaders of the eurozone’s three largest economies have seen their political authority seriously undermined.

In France, Nicolas Sarkozy, president, is also facing a backlash from within his own party and increasing doubts about whether he can win re-election next year after suffering a heavy defeat in local departmental elections on Sunday.

Silvio Berlusconi’s legal woes were underlined when the Italian premier returned to court for the first time in eight years in connection with tax fraud and embezzlement charges...

'It's sneaky, because they figure people won't know'

By STEPHANIE CLIFFORD and CATHERINE RAMPELL
updated 1 hour 18 minutes ago

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42317990/ns/business-us_business/


Chips are disappearing from bags, candy from boxes and vegetables from cans.

As an expected increase in the cost of raw materials looms for late summer, consumers are beginning to encounter shrinking food packages.

With unemployment still high, companies in recent months have tried to camouflage price increases by selling their products in tiny and tinier packages. So far, the changes are most visible at the grocery store, where shoppers are paying the same amount, but getting less.

For Lisa Stauber, stretching her budget to feed her nine children in Houston often requires careful monitoring at the store. Recently, when she cooked her usual three boxes of pasta for a big family dinner, she was surprised by a smaller yield, and she began to suspect something was up.

“Whole wheat pasta had gone from 16 ounces to 13.25 ounces,” she said. “I bought three boxes and it wasn’t enough — that was a little embarrassing. I bought the same amount I always buy, I just didn’t realize it, because who reads the sizes all the time?”

(snip)

Even a can of tuna has been downsized from 6 oz to 5 oz.

Toilet paper is shorter in width, a pint of ice cream is only 14 oz.
:wtf:

I used to be able to make 3 tuna salad sandwiches out of one.


Yesterday, I had a little leftover pasta salad and some lettuce, and figured I'd throw some tuna on it.

I looked at this skimpy little can and said :wtf:

and even when times got better, the packages remained smaller. The advertising increased, though.

in 2002-3. I always buy based on price per unit and it showed up like a big red flag when gas prices shot up then. Companies were absorbing transport increases then and did not want to up prices so the 'lightened' the package. Those of us that cook from scratch have had to modify family recipies or buy extra cans to get the same amount.

My solution is to buy freeze dried foods and cook out of my pantry. It is a little bit of work but so much better and cheaper. I always have at least one years worth of food in the pantry some times two. I only shop to get true sales and shop in season or utilize my container garden. I stand to save a fortune and it is one less worry. I buy incidental things, not necesseties. It makes a big difference.

A pantry is as much a part of my portfolio as cash, precious metals, stocks and our pensions. They use to call it Home Economics for a reason. People just forgot why.

supplier, etc...

I think the shelf life is beyond our lifespan.

24 years actually. They are a vegetarian option that I get for Hubby. Good price too. I haven't tasted them yet but Costco has not failed me in the past.

I have posted my food supplier (most are Morman based) before including my off the grid supplier resources (many are Amish and Mennonite).

Lasts forever even after being consumed....the fine print recommends 8oz of prunes after every serving.

to Costco.com's freeze dried stuff:

http://www.costco.com/Common/Search.aspx?whse=BC&topnav=&search=freeze%20dried%20food&N=0&Ntt=freeze%20dried%20food&cm_re=1_en-_-Top_Left_Nav-_-Top_search&lang=en-US

You don't need to be a member to order at costco.com, but I think there's about a $5 surcharge for non-members.

make candy bars smaller, they were still using the same wrappers, so the candy would just slide back and forth.

I have noticed ice cream is not in half gallons, but 3 quart containers now.

And lumber keeps getting thinner. 1/2" plywood went to 7/16", now 13/32.

I will have to look in the store for the bigger 3 quart size

It cost more, but they brag about it in their advertisement. Their sales are not hurting. When they do have a sale....folks stock up.

AnneD...whose annual Spring Break trip to see the bluebonnets includes a trip to the Blue Bell factory in Brenham. The highlight of the free tour is a free ice cream cone. In our family it is Blue Bell, hand made gelatto from a small family store nearby, or greek yogurt. We don't eat much but we eat well.

I remember these ice cream surveys from last summer. Several people in the comment section prefer Blue Bell! But it is not sold in my area of Ohio. However, I really enjoy Haagen Daz Vanilla. :)

Best Vanilla
http://www.slashfood.com/2010/08/13/best-vanilla-ice-cream/

Best Chocolate
http://www.slashfood.com/2010/08/27/best-chocolate-ice-cream/


edit
In our part of the country, we have Graeters Ice Cream, a very delicious local brand (but expensive $4.59 for a pint!)
http://www.graeters.com/

I'll go back to making my own--it's not that hard and it's cheaper. Not that messy, either. What kept me back was the Kid's inability to tolerate lactose. With the lactose free milk available now, I can make do.

And if that's too tame, they have a hotter one called "Exit Wound".

Google it!

Unfortunately, it's only on the West Coast. Best flavor in the world is Mountain Huckleberry. Killer!

http://www.tillamook.com/products/Ice_Cream.html

:wtf: :spray: Great marketing! I pucker just thinking about it. Apply yogurt to the affected areas-something I learned from eating Indian food.

U.S. corn planting will expand to cover the second-largest area since World War II this year and still fail to meet demand for feed and ethanol, driving prices to their highest in at least 34 years.

Sowing will expand by 4 percent to about 91.75 million acres, the most since 2007 and the second-highest since 1944, according to a Bloomberg survey of 32 analysts. Corn will rise 5.7 percent to average $7.15 a bushel in the third quarter, the most since at least 1977, Abah Ofon and Koun-Ken Lee, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore, wrote in a report.

A United Nations index that tracks the cost of 55 foods rose to a record in February, with higher prices contributing to riots in the Middle East and northern Africa that toppled leaders in Egypt and Tunisia. That’s driving up inflation and spurring central banks to consider higher interest rates that may slow global growth.

“We will have inadequate acreage, which without spectacularly favorable weather, will usher in a significant food shortage” in some parts of the world, said Doug Jackson, a West Des Moines, Iowa-based vice president at INTL FCStone Inc. “Demand is outrunning normal production expansion, led by biofuel policy,” said Jackson, who has been a grain analyst since 1974.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29/rising-corn-acreage-seen-failing-to-meet-increased-u-s-feed-ethanol-use.html

Wait, let me think.

Okay, no, it's still dumb.

AstraZeneca has agreed to pay the US Internal Revenue Service $1.1bn to settle two long-running disputes, clearing the way to greater predictability in its tax planning

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/CTBPCC/IY5EMW/LSLXF/UU96HH/OJXP3V/ZH/t?a1=2011&a2=3&a3=29


A BILLION HERE, A BILLION THERE, PRETTY SOON YOU'RE TALKING SERIOUS MONEY

---ATTRIBUTED TO SENATOR EVERETT DIRKSEN

He is often remembered for the quip attributed to him: "A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you're talking real money". He did make similar remarks, but probably not that exact one...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everett_Dirksen


http://www.dirksencenter.org/print_emd_billionhere.htm

I have to compliment you on the green and red print, PBD. Very snazzy and festive!

Rajat Gupta, the former head of McKinsey, has stepped down from his role as a senior adviser to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation while he defends himself against civil charges of insider trading brought by US regulators

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/J0VG55/HDMKMS/YGZ3O/V1S8ZT/IYZIR2/E4/t?a1=2011&a2=3&a3=28

Credit card companies are offering a number of incentives to attract wealthy customers as they seek to reduce exposure to the increasingly indebted low-income borrowers

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/J0VG55/HDMKMS/YGZ3O/V1S8ZT/QFDNTD/E4/t?a1=2011&a2=3&a3=28

Delavaco Properties LP plans to spend as much as $30 million this year and $40 million in 2012 to buy bank-owned houses and condominiums in foreclosure-ridden South Florida. The private-equity fund will pay cash.

As lenders tighten mortgage standards and consumers stay on the sidelines amid a five-year slide in home prices, all-cash purchases are surging. The deals are done mostly by investors who can get properties for less than buyers needing loans, fix them up and resell or rent them.

“If there weren’t vultures out there, you’d have a city of dead carcasses,” Robert Theocles, an independent consultant for Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based Delavaco, said in a telephone interview. “It’s like the circle of life.”

A record 33 percent of existing-home sales were made to cash buyers in February, when an annualized 4.88 million properties changed hands, the National Association of Realtors reported March 21. That compares with 15 percent of the 4.82 million annualized sales when the Chicago-based trade group started monthly tracking of such purchases in October 2008.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29/cash-paying-vultures-feast-on-u-s-housing-as-mortgages-dry-up.html

Such harsh language--it's not like these buyers forced the properties into foreclosure....the real vultures were the lenders and servicers who wouldn't renegotiate the loans.

They didn't kill anything, but they're just waiting to swoop in and gobble up what the dead have left behind.

and once they've bought it all up, they'll rent it back to "us" at exhorbitant rates so we'll end up packed 12 to a room in truly Dickensian fashion. They'll make us send our children into the mines but won't pay us enough to buy the coal to heat our homes.

Read Zola's "Germinal."




TG, TT

1) there's too much housing available

2) there's too little income to support rents above historical trends (rent as portion of total income)

3) people are still going to want to own as soon as possible, and preferably, new, for far too many of the foolish who cannot see the value of older, better made construction.

The biggest problem would be foreign investors, but I don't think they are going to bite this time...the Japanese made such fools of themselves in the 80's.

More likely, rich people will be buying to move here, as the rest of the world collapses in chaos, drought, starvation and radiation.

Working people already can't afford to buy, which is why sales are slumping in the first place.

As incomes continue to drop either through continued loss of jobs or declining wages as wage protections are destroyed (destruction of unions, removal of minimum wage, shift from "employee" to "independent contractor" status, etc.), individuals will consolidate to share living spaces and expenses. Vacant properties that remain unsold will accommodate squatters for a while, then be torn down after materials (copper, fixtures, etc) are scavenged. Cheaply made units will be the first to go; once the glut of "single family" units is sufficiently reduced, larger, more solidly built older structures will be subdivided into rentals.

Understand that I'm not saying this WILL happen, but it's a scenario that could be implemented if there's sufficient will on the right and sufficient complacency on the left.


TG

I just want to remind all tose that withheld their votes this past election that no matter what you think of the Dems, empowering the other side by not voting in 2010 has gotten you all kinds of shit. And pushed the party to the right. So probably not the outcome you wanted.

OK; Cue the usual flamey responses laden with profanity.

The kids who only came out in 2008 to vote for Obama.

Four nuclear power companies are preparing lawsuits against the German government in the wake of its decision to idle seven of the country’s 17 nuclear-power stations

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/J0VG55/HDMKMS/YGZ3O/V1S8ZT/5CLV5R/E4/t?a1=2011&a2=3&a3=28


I'M HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING THERE'S ANYONE THAT STUPID IN A POSITION OF RESPONSIBILITY--SUCH AS RUNNING NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS....:sarcasm:

LONDON (MarketWatch) — The dollar remained lower versus most major rivals Tuesday, but trimmed losses after a Federal Reserve official said policy makers may not be able to wait until global crises are resolved to begin withdrawing its ultra-accommodative monetary policy.

The dollar index (DXY 76.33, +0.20, +0.27%) which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of major rivals, traded at 76.185, up slightly from 76.169 in North American trading late Monday, and a rebound from below the 75.950 level seen ahead of remarks by St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard.

Speaking at a banking forum in Prague, Bullard said the question of normalizing U.S. monetary policy is likely to return as a key issue in 2011 and that policy makers may not be able to wait until a range of global macroeconomic uncertainties — including Mideast and North Africa turmoil, the impact of the Japanese earthquake, the U.S. fiscal situation and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis — are resolved to begin withdrawing stimulus.

The Federal Open Market Committee “may not be willing or able to wait until all global uncertainties are resolved to begin normalizing policy,” said Bullard, who isn’t an FOMC voting member this year. Read Market Pulse on Bullard's comments.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-boosted-by-fed-comments-2011-03-29?dist=beforebell

No QE3?

'normal' seems to be a mugged guy lying in a back alley some place.

not lending to zombies?

Who defines normal, these days? Abby Normal, I'm thinking.

The squid will make certain the chairsatan will do as he is told.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/24/pf/financial_crisis_outcome/index.htm

The average American family's household net worth declined 23% between 2007 and 2009, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.

A rare survey of U.S. households, first performed in 2007 but repeated in 2009 in order to gauge the effects of the recession, reveals the median net worth of households fell from $125,000 in 2007 to $96,000 in 2009...It is widely known that the 2008 financial crisis resulted in the vaporization of trillions of dollars in household wealth. But Federal Reserve officials said Thursday the new report offers a look at exactly how hard the recession hit families, and how they reacted.

The numbers paint a stark picture.

Families that owned stock saw their portfolios drop by more than a third to $12,000 from $18,500, on average. The value of primary real estate holdings decreased by an average of $18,700.

And families took on more debt, pushing median total debt levels to $75,600 from $70,300. They also made less money. Median household income dropped to $49,800 from $50,100....

for helping our family buck the trend.:applause:

so don't think it's confined to a short sharp shock.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27770.htm

In the Sovereign Fiscal Responsibility Index,

http://dzwired.com/testarea/cai/PDFs/032111_SFRI_Release_FINAL.pdf

the Comeback America Initiative ranked 34 countries according to their ability to meet their financial challenges, and the US finished 28th, said David Walker, head of the organization and former US comptroller general.

"We think it is important for the American people to understand where the United States is as compared to other countries with regard to fiscal responsibility and sustainability," Walker said in a CNBC interview. "Americans are used to rankings and they're used to ranking very high, but frankly in this area we rank very low."

While the news is bad, there is a bright side.

"Here's the good news: Some of the top countries had their own fiscal challenges, made reforms and now rank highly," Walker said. "If we adopt the recommendations of the National Fiscal Responsibility and Reform Commission or ones that have similar bottom-line impact, we move from 28 to 8."

As the US languishes near the bottom, these countries make up the top five: Australia, New Zealand, Estonia, Sweden, China and Luxembourg.


THIS IS MORE PETER J PETERSON PROPAGANDA--WALLPAPER FOR TEABAGGERS....BEWARE, BE WARNED!

For years, if not decades, prospective home buyers bought as quickly as their finances permitted. Prices were generally rising, offering them a means of boosting their wealth. And, it stands to reason that if they had hesitated, buyers would have had to pay a higher price later on.

But since the housing bubble burst a few years ago, buyer psychology has done a 180. Now, the home buyer’s mantra is buy later, when prices are lower.

But trees don’t grow to the sky and people don’t live forever. So as the late economist Herb Stein once said, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

Indeed, in my view, we may not be far from a bottoming out of housing prices — if not an actual rise.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-slide-but-the-end-may-be-in-sight-2011-03-28

LOLOLOLOL

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27772.htm

The housing market is now in full retreat. This week, the Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes plunged nearly 17 percent in February to a 250,000 annual pace. That's a record low. At the same time, the median price fell 8.9 percent from February of last year. The news comes on the heels of Monday's equally-dismal report that showed existing home sales dropped 9.6 percent in February. These are Depression era stats and builders know it which is why they're unloading homes as cheaply as possible. It's been 5 years since housing prices peaked in July 2006, and the market is still nowhere near the bottom. In fact, the rate of decline is accelerating. This is shaping up to be the worst spring in history.

If you want to know where the housing market is headed, keep an eye on inventory. That's the whole ball of wax. When inventory balloons, prices go down. At present, inventory is rising (8.9 month's supply) which means that prices have further to fall. But these figures don't include the vast shadow inventory that the banks are holding off-market. Many analysts think there could be another 5 to 6 years of inventory stacked up on bank's balance sheets. The Wall Street Journal's Mark Whitehouse takes an even grimmer view. He thinks the backlog could be in the vicinity of 9 years. Here's a clip from his article in the WSJ:

"Banks' vast pile of foreclosed homes doesn't appear to be diminishing. That's a troubling sign for the future of the housing market.

Back in April, this column tallied up all the foreclosed homes sitting in banks' inventory, as well as the "shadow" inventory of homes in the foreclosure process or on which owners had missed at least two mortgage payments. At the time, we reported that at the current rate of sales, it would take 103 months to unload it all.

Over the past six months, that number has actually risen. Banks managed to pare down the shadow inventory, but largely by taking possession of foreclosed homes. As of September, they owned nearly 994,000 foreclosed homes, up 21% from a year earlier. The shadow inventory stood at 5.2 million homes, down 7% from a year earlier. Grand total: 107 months of inventory....

BUT WAIT! THERE'S MORE! SEE LINK!

When one falls off a cliff in broad daylight, the end of the drop is in plain sight. The only variable is the height of the precipice.

Common knowledge: it ain't the fall that's the problem. It's that sudden stop..YMMV

Following today's Case Shiller confirmation that housing is due for many more month of pain, a press release from LPS confirms that the pain will be very prolonged, and home prices will declining for a long period of time. To wit: "The February Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. (NYSE: LPS) shows that while delinquencies continue to decline, an enormous backlog of foreclosures still exists with overhang at every level. As of the end of February, foreclosure inventory levels stand at more than 30 times monthly foreclosure sales volume, indicating this backlog will continue for quite some time. Ultimately, these foreclosures will most likely reenter the market as REO properties, putting even more downward pressure on U.S. home values." That is assuming Banks manage to bribe enough people to allow them to get back to foreclosing on tenants with improper loan docs (something we have no doubt will happen). And possibly far more troubling is that the Option-ARM trap is finally slamming shut: "February’s data also showed a 23 percent increase in Option ARM foreclosures over the last six months, far more than any other product type. In terms of absolute numbers, Option ARM foreclosures stand at 18.8 percent, a higher level than Subprime foreclosures ever reached. In addition, deterioration continues in the Non-Agency Prime segment. Both Jumbo and Conforming Non-Agency Prime loans showed increases in foreclosures and were the only product areas with increases in delinquencies."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/foreclosure-backlog-hits-30-months-option-arm-cliff-arrives-average-delinquency-period-537-d

http://crimeshouldntpay.com/countdown-to-march-29

jWarden7102

This week, the state Attorneys General will begin negotiations with the big banks on the terms of the settlement to their fraudulent practices. While the final details will take weeks to hammer out, the opening salvo will determine what stays on – or gets kicked off – the negotiating table.

The stakes couldn’t be higher.

On Tuesday March 29, thousands of Americans will participate in a nationwide call-in day, demanding that their Attorney General “stand with homeowners, not the big banks.”


For years, homeowners have been engaged in a lopsided fight with the nation’s largest banks to save their homes. The big banks have bullied and bribed their way towards ensuring that they don’t have to help homeowners, even if it means breaking the law. At every step along the way, the very people and institutions that are supposed to protect homeowners have instead given in to the big banks. Millions have lost their homes needlessly.

The state Attorneys General could change all of this. They can step up and do what nobody else has had the guts to do – stand firmly on the side of homeowners and go toe-to-toe with the big bankers.

We have begun to make this change, but we need to keep the momentum going.

To prepare for March 29, we need to build our forces. Tell your friends and family to join us as we enter the final stage of this struggle. You can like our Facebook page to spread the word about March 29, get the latest news on the settlement process, share your stories and opinions, and much more.

The Attorneys General need to pick a side – the millions of homeowners they’ve sworn to protect or the big banks that have bankrupted our communities and country. Let’s help them make the right decision.

FROM THE CRIME SHOULDN'T PAY WEBSITE

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-28/lenders-said-to-get-exemption-option-under-risk-retention-rule.html

U.S. regulators may exempt banks and bond issuers who meet higher underwriting standards from new rules requiring them to keep a stake in loans they securitize, according to a person involved in drafting the plan.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is scheduled to vote on the draft rule today before presenting it for public comment. Other agencies including the Securities and Exchange Commission are scheduled to consider the measure starting this week.

The risk-retention proposal offers a package of options tailored for business, auto, commercial real estate and home loans, which would be eligible for exemptions under certain conditions, according to the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the rules aren’t yet public.

Issuers of residential mortgage-backed securities would be exempt from having to retain risk if borrowers are credit-worthy and have made a down payment of at least 20 percent. The rules are mandated by the 2010 Dodd-Frank regulatory overhaul and were designed to prevent the kinds of underwriting practices that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis.

The 367-page draft rule, which took eight months to craft, presents a range of possibilities rather than a one-size-fits- all plan for regulating the $2.5 trillion private asset-backed securities market....

AND IT ONLY TOOK 60 YEARS AND A NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE...

WHERE IS AMERICA'S GREEN PARTY? NOWHERE

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2011/0328/How-Germany-s-Greens-rose-from-radical-fringe-to-ruling-power

Especially since Democrats don't exist as a functioning entity north of Miami.

...These and similar budget problems nationwide are symptoms of a larger condition, said Timothy J. Bartik, senior economist at the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in Kalamazoo, Mich. "If state and local taxes were at the same percentage of state personal income as they were 40 years ago, you wouldn't have all these budgetary problems," Bartik said.

Before California's Proposition 13 triggered a nationwide tax-cut revolt in the late 1970s, state and local taxes accounted for nearly 13 percent of personal income in 1972, Bartik said. By 2007, it was 11 percent. State corporate income taxes have fallen as well. Once nearly 10 percent of all state tax revenue in the late '70s, they accounted for only 5.4 percent in 2010...

Even now, as states struggle to provide basic services and ponder job cuts that threaten their economic recovery, at least seven governors in states with budget deficits have called for or enacted large tax reductions, mainly for businesses. Five are newly elected Republicans in Florida, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey and Wisconsin. The others are Republican Jan Brewer of Arizona and Democrat Beverly Perdue of North Carolina. Their willingness to forgo needed tax revenue is hard to fathom, as states face a collective $125 billion budget shortfall for the coming fiscal year, said Jon Shure, the deputy director of the State Fiscal Project at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a respected liberal research institute in Washington.


... After the nation recovered from the 1990-91 recession, 43 states made sizable tax cuts from 1994 to 2001 as the economy surged. Twenty-eight states, in fact, reduced their unemployment insurance payroll taxes after 1995. But states that cut taxes the most ended up with the largest budget shortfalls and higher job losses when the economy slowed again in 2001, according to research by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities....


Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/28/111161/states-broke-maybe-they-cut-taxes.html#ixzz1HzacBlzh

FIND MORE BY THIS HISTORIAN AT:

http://williamhogeland.wordpress.com/

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/03/william-hogeland-how-john-adams-and-thomas-paine-clashed-over-economic-equality.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29



...Things John Adams hated about “Common Sense” are revealing. One was the pamphlet’s widespread reputation as the tipping point for America’s declaration of independence from England. Adams thought that was nonsense. The only novel thing in “Common Sense,” Adams believed — and he meant it in a bad way — wasn’t what he cast as its belated, derivative call for American independence. It was what he blasted as Paine’s “democratical” plan for a new kind of American government, which flew in the face of the balanced republicanism that Adams loved. That part of the pamphlet was its only important part to John Adams, but it is often ignored or glossed over in favor of celebrating what Adams thought the pamphlet never did: persuade Americans to support independence.

In proposing a new American government, Paine scoffed caustically at the whole idea of balance and the covalence among branches that we’re taught to revere as exceptionally American, but were really derived from the post-Settlement English constitution. Where Adams saw checks and balances as key to liberty, Paine wanted an executive branch subordinated to a hyper-representative legislature (a single house, with no check from any elite “upper” house) and a judiciary directly elected by the people.

Most horrifying to Adams, Paine wanted citizens to have the vote regardless of property ownership. While in “Common Sense” Paine dialed back his thoughts on equality, arguing only for easy access to the franchise, in other works he promoted smashing the ancient equation that liberty-loving Whigs had always made between property and representation. Paine wanted the less propertied and — horrors! — even the unpropertied not only to vote in a free America, but also to hold office.

Paine’s goal in giving the lower sort and the poor access to political power was economic equality. When ordinary Americans held power, they would pass laws promoting the interests of ordinary Americans — and obstructing, not coincidentally, the interests of finance elites. And that’s just what happened in Pennsylvania beginning in 1776, when Paine’s friends wrote a constitution for that state, based largely on Paine’s ideas, removing the property qualification for the first meaningful time anywhere. Assemblies elected under that constitution passed anti-monopoly laws, worked to bring about government debt relief, and took away the charter of the bank founded by the high financier Robert Morris for the purpose of enriching himself and his friends...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ge-to-buy-automation-equipment-maker-converteam-2011-03-29?dist=beforebell

GE to buy automation-equipment maker Converteam

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- General Electric Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!ge/quotes/nls/ge (GE 19.73, -0.02, -0.10%) said Tuesday it would shell out about $3.2 billion for a 90% stake in Converteam, a provider of electrification and automation equipment. The Dow 30 component said it would purchase the remaining shares from Converteam's senior executives over the next two to five years, estimated be worth no more than $480 million.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-needs-a-deal-but-not-the-nyse-2011-03-29

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — They are the great business rivalries of our time: Coke versus Pepsi, Apple Inc. versus Microsoft Corp., plastic or paper and, of course, the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market.

They all share a common thread. Each competes after the same customer, after the same market share and ultimately the same profits.


But for the exchanges, the war over listings and equity trading has become moot. They’re a limited business with small margins.They’re as relevant as the traders on the floor of the NYSE.

You’d never know it by listening to Bob Greifeld, chief executive of the Nasdaq /quotes/comstock/15*!ndaq/quotes/nls/ndaq (NDAQ 25.28, -0.02, -0.08%) , who is still so hell-bent on destroying the NYSE he’s reportedly preparing a rival bid to disrupt the planned merger between NYSE Euronext Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!nyx/quotes/nls/nyx (NYX 35.74, +0.36, +1.02%) and the Deutsche Boerse.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-stay-higher-after-home-price-datadjia-up-24-2011-03-29

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures held onto its modest gains Tuesday after nationwide home prices fell again, though at a slower pace than feared.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 24 points at 12138 recently, while Standard & Poor's 500 futures rose two points to 1305 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained two points to 2297. Prior to the data, Dow futures had been up 24 points, while S&P 500 futures gained three points and Nasdaq futures added two points. Changes in stock futures do not always accurately predict early stock moves after the open.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-edge-down-before-5-year-auction-2011-03-29-922220

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices were mostly lower on Tuesday, pushing yields up for a ninth day, as traders balance an approaching auction of 5-year notes with U.S. economic data, Japan’s struggle to contain radiation from an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant, and comments from Federal Reserve officials focusing on normalizing their ultra-easy monetary policy.


well somebody seems to think they know what 'normalizing' would be.

It probably already has, and that's why Ben put the presses in hyperspeed. I do wish he'd get caught with his pants down in the next week or so.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/29/news/economy/swiss_re_disaster/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Worldwide economic losses from catastrophes soared last year, the deadliest year for disasters since 1976, according to an insurance company study unveiled Tuesday.

Economic losses from natural catastrophes and man-made disasters totaled $218 billion, according to reinsurer Swiss Re, based in Zurich, Switzerland. The company said the figure was more than triple the $68 billion damage of the prior year. Insured losses totaled $48 billion, up 60% from 2009.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/52027.html

By JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ | 3/28/11 5:24 AM EDT

I was asked to sign the letter from a bipartisan group of former chairmen and chairwomen of the Council of Economic Advisers that stresses the importance of deficit reduction and urges the use of the Bowles Simpson Deficit Commission’s recommendations as the basis for compromise.

The letter’s signatories believed that their support would show that there was a core to scientific economics that crosses ideological boundaries. While I agree there is a core set of principles to which all card-carrying economists would (or should) subscribe — resources are limited, incentives matter — I did not sign.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/52027.html#ixzz1HzwbFwta



my apologies if this has been posted here before.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471904576229003143739080.html?mod=WSJ_myyahoo_module

ANYTHING THAT KEEPS THE CAPITALIST VULTURES AWAY IS A GOOD THING....

so called pastor is coming to Dearborn.

Dearborn isn't the Dearborn of the 60's. or 80's or even 2000.

I wouldn't go there.

Who are the three gullible hedge fund managers in New York and San Francisco who just dropped $15 million in an alleged Ponzi scheme out in Utah?

The Securities and Exchange Commission won’t say, but it’s going to be embarrassing if John “Scott” Clark, the man behind the alleged swindle, ever goes to trial. We’ll find out then.

Expect some seriously red faces among the hedge funds involved. How naive are these people?

The alleged Ponzi scheme was a doozy. The SEC says that from 2006 through last year, Clark raised $47 million from investors for his firm, Impact Cash, an online payday lender making loans to the poor at Chili Palmer rates.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ponzi-scheme-hits-mystery-hedge-funds-2011-03-29?link=MW_story_popular

More imaginary value-added stock index gains backed by funny money.

http://www.yesmagazine.org/blogs/david-korten/phantom-wealth-and-false-expectations

David Korten: Think money can grow in perpetuity without real value? Welcome to the Alice in Wonderland world of phantom expectations.

It is a curious thing. Unless we stuff it in a mattress, we expect whatever money we don’t immediately spend to grow in perpetuity without effort. We do not expect the same of real wealth. Buildings must be maintained. Machinery must be replaced. Knowledge must be updated. The trust and caring of a community must be continuously renewed. Skills must be practiced. Even wild spaces must be protected from predators, particularly human ones. All of these require a real investment of our time and life energy.

Only phantom financial assets, the product of financial bubbles and fancy accounting tricks unrelated to the production of anything of real use, can grow effortlessly and perpetually—producing phantom expectations that, in the aggregate, can never be fulfilled.

Financial planner Thornton Parker has pointed out phantom wealth expectations are likely to be an issue for baby boomers who built up financial assets during the stock market boom in anticipation of a comfortable retirement. Just as their collective decision to put money into the stock market during their working years helped inflate share prices, so their collective decision to take it out during their retirement deflates those prices, leaving them in potentially desperate straits...

(Good day.)
Small good dinner.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,589,726,447,637.34 + 4,621,807,104,003.63
DOWN 34,574,737.25 + UP 1,496,277,525.12

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 312-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,208.77 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.63, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,645,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,601.56.
A family of three owes $136,804.67. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 3,523,450,131.82.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,466,415,092.27.
The average for the last 28 days would be 2,642,587,598.86.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 122 reports in 176 days of FY2011 averaging 5.33B$ per report, 3.69B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 667 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/25/2011 14,211,533,551,640.97 BHO (UP 3,584,656,502,727.89 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,649,910,520,749.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,347,825,795,871.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/07/2011 +000,111,602,744.60 ------------******** Mon
03/08/2011 +000,276,984,022.19 ------------********
03/09/2011 +000,555,472,651.94 ------------********
03/10/2011 -020,814,859,511.27 -
03/11/2011 +000,832,058,508.78 ------------********
03/14/2011 +000,380,093,829.66 ------------******** Mon
03/15/2011 +066,006,214,426.70 ------------**********
03/16/2011 +001,148,655,957.01 ------------*********
03/17/2011 -014,916,428,437.31 -
03/18/2011 +000,616,236,061.23 ------------********
03/21/2011 -000,100,873,734.64 --- Mon
03/22/2011 +000,366,066,174.28 ------------********
03/23/2011 -000,063,255,741.95 ----
03/24/2011 -015,763,143,549.40 -
03/25/2011 -000,034,574,737.25 ----

18,600,248,664.57 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4790052&mesg_id=4790329

(Good day.)
Long day, sleepy. A bike next door. Good night.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,589,953,849,874.55 + 4,621,613,813,056.68
UP 227,402,237.21 + DOWN 193,290,946.95

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 312-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,208.55 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.63, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,667,392 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,598.51.
A family of three owes $136,795.52. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 800,158,260.41.
The average for the last 30 days would be 560,110,782.29.
The average for the last 28 days would be 600,118,695.31.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 123 reports in 179 days of FY2011 averaging 5.28B$ per report, 3.63B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 664 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/28/2011 14,211,567,662,931.23 BHO (UP 3,584,690,614,018.15 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,649,944,632,039.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,325,306,093,264.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/08/2011 +000,276,984,022.19 ------------********
03/09/2011 +000,555,472,651.94 ------------********
03/10/2011 -020,814,859,511.27 -
03/11/2011 +000,832,058,508.78 ------------********
03/14/2011 +000,380,093,829.66 ------------******** Mon
03/15/2011 +066,006,214,426.70 ------------**********
03/16/2011 +001,148,655,957.01 ------------*********
03/17/2011 -014,916,428,437.31 -
03/18/2011 +000,616,236,061.23 ------------********
03/21/2011 -000,100,873,734.64 --- Mon
03/22/2011 +000,366,066,174.28 ------------********
03/23/2011 -000,063,255,741.95 ----
03/24/2011 -015,763,143,549.40 -
03/25/2011 -000,034,574,737.25 ----
03/28/2011 +000,227,402,237.21 ------------******** Mon

18,716,048,157.18 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4791662&mesg_id=4792046

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/29/us-japan-quake-mitsui-idUSTRE72S0P520110329

STOLEN FROM ROBBIEN

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines has not yet decided what it will do with its container ship when it returns to Japan this week, a company official said on Tuesday, after China rejected the vessel for "abnormal" radiation levels.

....

If radiation levels are confirmed to be too high on the vessel, MOL may be forced to dispose of the machinery, furniture and other cargo on the ship and reimburse its clients since insurance companies do not cover radiation exposure linked to nuclear accidents, industry experts said. The vessel would also need to be thoroughly cleaned before it can set sail again.

Chinese authorities detected a maximum of 3.5 microsieverts per hour on MOL's ship when it arrived at the port of Xiamen in eastern Fujian province last week, the company spokeswoman said.

. . .

The MOL Presence originated in California, stopping in Tokyo for only a few hours on March 17 before arriving in China four days later, port authorities said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/29/us-japan-quake-mitsui-idUSTRE72S0P520110329

ROBBIEN COMMENTS:


All along Japan and nuclear officials sources keep saying everything is safe, don't worry, be happy and stay calm.

Then there is this. In this instance when given a choice to hurt profits or accept this ship, the port chose to hurt profits. This ship was only in Tokyo port for a few hours. A port which is 150 miles away from the busted nuclear reactors.

Everything is safe, be happy.

DEMETER ADDS:

If the radiation is just on the surface, it could be scrubbed (and probably dumped in the ocean then) and the ship and cargo salvaged. If they loaded cargo at Tokyo, and it contaminated everything else, all bets are off.

http://dirtyhippies.org/2011/03/29/on-the-uselessness-of-the-dow-jones-index/

Yes, God forbid we do anything that’s “bad for business.” Never mind that doing nothing allows the stock market to be turned into a fiscal circus, a total fantasy — that’s not bad for business at all, apparently.

Put another way: If we can’t even trust the Dow Jones to tell us anything other than who’s hosting the Oscars this year, then how can we tell how the economy is doing? How do we get out of this mess even if we can’t even tell when we’ve gotten out of this mess?

As long as there have been computers these types of programs have been written. A particularly popular kind in the 90s used to be referred to as "SOES bandits", and involved buying a "lot" of stocks seconds before a larger entity was about to buy "at market" skimming an eight or a teenth off the top.

In 87, I worked for Merrill and they literally were pulling the plugs out of the walls to stop the market meltdown on the floor.The '87 crash was essentially a computer program trading generated crash. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

DOW 12279.01 UP 81.13 +0.67%
NASDAQ 2756.89 UP 26.21 +0.96%
S&P 500 1319.44 UP 9.25 +0.71%


WTF is happening you ask? Nothing but bad news , huh? Well yes, but there's still a bunch of people who are going to be buying stocks next week and easing out of Treasuries. So That's a macro bull sign. In case you're wondering. Well, here's the deal Market Watchketeers. The Market is driven by lots and lots of small traders and trading companies who are looking at things trying to see what they should buy, not to hold forever, but to buy hoping to garner a gain of a few points. The little guys have undue influence on the markets when the big guys are not buying, which is the case of late. Still no volume.

Technically, it looks like mini-bull flags have been formed on both the S&P and Nasdaq;remember, the bigs are buying techs and selling financials and this mrottaional move is reflected in these two markets. We saw support was tested briefly today and held, that was very impressive. Its from all the smart guys buying on the dips. I know this sounds crazy, but it could very well be that we see new highs within the next few weeks. Technically, that makes the recent lows the new floor. The bulls seem to be back in charge of things. But its a wispy mirage. The second the big volume returns will tell the REAL tale. Any traders left here, or is it all conspiratorial editorialists telling us where various illuminati "want" things?