Six weeks before hurricane season starts, forecasters monitoring system in Atlantic

Source: St. Pete Times

Six weeks before hurricane season starts, forecasters monitoring system in Atlantic

Times Staff
Posted: Apr 20, 2011 08:39 PM


It might be only April, but the National Hurricane Center is already monitoring a patch of bad weather in the Atlantic that forecasters say could become a tropical cyclone.

The system was about 460 miles northeast of Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon. Forecasters said there is a 20 percent chance the system will become a cyclone, which would make for an early start to the tropical weather season. Hurricane season starts June 1.

Tropical systems this early in the year are rare, but not unprecedented. Subtropical systems have formed as early as January — the last in 1978. The earliest hurricane to form was in March 1908.

Forecasters said the system that formed Wednesday was moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. It was packing winds of 39 to 54 mph.



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I noticed that Gulf temps were increasing faster than normal this year. We're already having record high temperatures.

I think it's going to be a long, long, hurricane season.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Thursday Morning Update On Invest 91-L Located To The Northeast of Puerto Rico
Rob Lightbown on April 21, 2011, 5:46 am

An area of low pressure, designated Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center, was located to the northeast of Puerto Rico near 23.2 North Latitude, 62.8 West Longitude. Satellite imagery early this morning show some shower and thunderstorm activity developing on the northern side of the circulation with gale force winds being reported north and northeast of the center.

A west-northwest track is forecast today into part of tonight before it turns to the west-southwest and southwest by Friday. At this time, this low pressure system is cold cored and non-tropical in nature and there is a slight chance that this system will become organized enough to be considered sub-tropical and somewhat warm cored in nature between later today and late Friday before environmental conditions become very unfavorable by this weekend and this system falls apart and dissipates as it nears the southeastern Bahamas. At this point, I suspect that this system will at most be a weak sub-tropical storm. It should be pointed out that the remnants or whatever is left of this system is forecast to track across south and central Florida during the early to middle part of next week bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

Even though this system is not a big deal, it is something that is of interest and I will keep you all updated on the latest.

I'm still freezing, Doc.

Pool temperatures are unusually warm for this time of year and bearable already in the "deep south", a month earlier than normal.

But that don't count, because I have solar heating panels.

However I took the dogs to the beach on Sunday to let them play for a while. I was in above my knees, and the Gulf was surprisingly warm for this time of year.

OP: "I think it's going to be a long, long, hurricane season."

It may be, but it may be a short one, too. The accuracy of forecasts of hurricanes in advance is low.

I could be full of shit. But, then again, it's just my opinion. We could have a blizzard in August for all I know.

rain estimate for the next two weeks-3 inches

april temps running 8 degrees below normal
april has 6 straight days of rain- 2.06 normal .78 inches

so far this spring 5.86 inches, 52% a head of normal


i guess we`d better start planting rice here in northern il...