Voters in the Portland area supported Kerry 56 percent to 38 percent

That 20 point lead is around the corner folks ...

Kerry edges Bush in poll of state voters
Democratic candidate has bigger lead in Portland: 56-38 percent
By DON HAMILTON Issue date: Tue, May 4, 2004
The Tribune
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Sen. John Kerry holds a slight lead over President George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential race among Oregon voters, according to a new poll conducted for the Portland Tribune and KOIN (6).
The poll showed the Massachusetts Democrat leading Bush 48 percent to 46 percent. Another 6 percent of the respondents described themselves as undecided.
The results confirm what both major parties have been saying in recent months: Oregon will be a battleground state in the Nov. 2 election.
“It’s good news-bad news for both candidates,” said Del Ali, whose company, Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., conducted the poll. “It’s good news for Kerry because he can say he’s still ahead after not getting very good press recently. And Bush can say he’s doing well in a traditionally Democratic state.”
The poll also showed Oregonians are uneasy about U.S. efforts in Iraq:
• Fifty-two percent said the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, while 45 percent said it was not worth it, and 3 percent were unsure.
• Forty-four percent of respondents said the Iraqi war made the United States safer from terrorism; 43 percent said the country is less safe.
• Fifty-six percent of Oregonians think that the war has damaged the nation’s image around the world.
• By 54 percent to 34 percent, Oregonians don’t think the war will lead to peace and a stable Iraqi government.

How is the president doing?
Uncertainty about the war seems to have affected the job ratings that Oregonians give the president and their feelings about the 2004 race.
• Forty-seven percent of Oregonians think Bush is doing an excellent or good job, while 51 percent graded him fair or poor. In the Portland area, 38 percent of respondents graded him good or excellent, while 61 percent considered him fair or poor.
• Bush led Kerry among statewide voters ages 44 and under, with Kerry leading among those 45 and older.
• Voters in the Portland area supported Kerry 56 percent to 38 percent.
• Unaffiliated Oregon voters support Kerry 51 percent to 39 percent, which Ali said could be bad news for the president.

“The good news for Kerry is that right now he not only leads among these voters but is over the 50 percent threshold,” Ali said. “If he maintains that, he’ll be hard to beat in Oregon. But these are voters who can change their minds.”

more ...http://www.portlandtribune.com/archview.cgi?id=24200

in the rest of the state. I hope Portland will be enough--especially if Nader is on the ballot.

My vote may not do much

61% in Portland rate * Fair or Poor, 56% of those support Kerry - I guess that accounts for the Naderites? Good to see that Kerry is doing well amongst Indie voters.

which I assume encompasses the tri-county area

Not sure about Lane County as a whole (given that we have to include Springtucky) ... but I can assure you that Eugene will open up a big ol' can of whoop-ass in November!

and could proof to be a bellwether.

I'm going to do what I can to deliver this side of the county. Where else are trouble spots? Sprintucky? I never would have guessed. DeFazio and Morrisette? What happened? Did they swing to a "tough on crime" thing after Thurston?

he always votes against gun control measures. That's why they vote for someone who is otherwise nearly a socialist.

city & country.

the message doesn't get out to subsidized-rancher country. their only source of news is cable.

I can see him doing very well on May 18th.

"Bush led Kerry among statewide voters ages 44 and under, with Kerry leading among those 45 and older."

No indication as to the size of these leads, but this is symptomatic of the centrist Democratic party's lack of appeal to young voters. There's a lot of apathy and malaise, and then there's the jingo-fed video warriors who think war is really cool as long as they don't have to pay taxes to support it.

Lots of ignorant assholes east of the Cascades, as ever. Personally, I favor ceding that part of the state to Idaho, but no one asked me.

They're brainwashed by the Reaganomic mantra they grew up with as well as the Reaganista attack on social programs. The younger, younger voters aren't buying it because they grew up on Clinton. It's keeping this current group of 30 somethings from brainwashing a new generation that's going to be the challenge. But we have to try to get them to listen first, by talking centrist and doing liberal.

Think about what welfare reform really did, for example. For years women had been complaining that they were trapped on welfare because of the way the system was set up. If they got a job, they lost medical benefits and sometimes housing and energy assistance as well. They had no day care to help and no job training either. They ended up worse off working than on welfare. The changes that were made in "ending welfare as we know it" were actually changes women had been screaming for. AND we all know that the vast majority of people spend around a year on welfare, so the 5 year cap doesn't really hurt them. But Republicans would never agree to give welfare recipients MORE help, but they would agree to "ending welfare as we know it". So Clinton pushed through the biggest ASSIST to moms in history, right under the noses of these right wingers. And, in my state at least, alot of people went to state funded jobs programs. They weren't just shoved off of welfare. So in alot of ways,this was using the words of centrism to get through a traditional Democratic program.

Not that I totally agree with it, just saying, we have to think about tactics when trying to put agendas together.