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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 06:34 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 5 May
Wednesday May 5, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 264
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 145 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 198 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 412
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 894
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Jeff Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 4, 2004

Dow... 10,317.20 +3.20 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq... 1,950.48 +11.76 (+0.61%)
S&P 500... 1,119.55 +2.06 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.54% +0.04 (+0.96%)
Gold future... 391.80 +4.30 (+1.11%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P


||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact actionpost@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 06:41 AM
Response to Original message
1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif "Weekly Charts"
-cut- past lotsa charts

The week of 4-23-04 I said, "Last week's price action turned those indicators that are "price-centric" positive. Consequently, if we only look at price action in a vacuum, we have to conclude that we ought to see continuation this week. Having said that, there are two other developments that ought to be paid attention to. First of all, the McClellan Oscillators indicate a dichotomy between advancing issues and up volume. The A/D Oscillator is still negative at -105.46; on the other hand, the Volume Oscillator is clearly above zero, which means most of the up volume has gone to a handful of stocks. The indices have advanced due to advances in high capitalization stocks, however, the rest of the stocks have not received proportionate up volume, which makes the rally vulnerable. Second, the SPX/VIX, and NDX/VXN ratios are back near the top of their range. Every time--with the exception of August 2000-- the ratios have reached these levels, the markets have turned down in a rather violent way. So, unless we are about to witness a total collapse in volatility premiums, something will have to give. In summary, the price action is favorable, and suggests continuation. However, the quality of the rally has been poor and makes it vulnerable to an abrupt end. For next week, pay attention to resistance (see table below). If the indices can't close above resistance while breadth remains poor and volatility premiums continue to contract, then in all likelihood the rally will come to and end. If the indices do close above resistance while breadth expands, we ought to expect further gains at least up to the first upside targets."

Summary (4-30-04)

The poor quality of last week's rally overtook the artificial favorable price action, and the rally came to an abrupt and unceremonious end. In the process, all of the indicators that measure oversold/overbought conditions are in oversold territory suggesting that another bounce ought to start, expected in the first 1-2 trading days. However, the real question is this: what if we get another bounce;, we have gotten, for example, six from the -200 area in the McClellan Oscillators since January, but the indices are lower now than they were in January, February, and March! The point is so far, bounces have proven to be opportunities to short, not opportunities to buy, and frankly, we do not see any upcoming bounce to be any different.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 07:00 AM
Response to Original message
2. Good morning Ozy and all. Wonder what that strange canyon in the
future charts is all about. :shrug:
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 08:20 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. Good morning 54anickel and all.
I see that canyon graph from time to time. Always dramatic. I have often suspected that either the wee hours of the morning see little "put" or trading activity or the prices offered are ridiculously low.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 07:01 AM
Response to Original message
3. daily dollar watch
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.43 Change -0.38 (-0.42%)

related articles:

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/103770/content.asp?menu=technicalanalysis&dia=552004

The dollar fell sharply on Tuesday

The dollar fell sharply on Tuesday amid speculation that its recovery is over. The decline accelerated late in the day after the FOMC kept rates on hold as widely expected, but prepared the markets for a rate hike. The selling pressure should continue. Keep an eye on the U non-manufacturing ISM.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar made an explosive rally on Tuesday that obliterated the top of its

declining channel. This makes it clear that the pair has more room on the upside.

Above the four-week high of 1.2115, the euro/dollar has immediate resistance at 1.2146. A break higher would signal an upmove to 1.2174. Further resistance comes at 1.2217 and 1.2233. The 100-day moving average provides resistance at 1.2373.

<snip>

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen finally broke out from an inside range on Tuesday again and snapped the bottom of its rising channel. This selling pressure should continue.

Then dollar/yen will now likely test the 50-point pivot at 109.15, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. If this decline accelerates, then look for further support is at 108.29 but this is unlikely to be seen on Wednesday.

<snip>

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar broke out from an inside range of 1.7580 to 1.7810 to reach a two-week high. It should retain a bullish bias ahead of the expected rate hike on Thursday.

Initial resistance comes at 1.8082 and a break higher would target 1.8143. A close higher would signal an upmove to 1.8171 and even 1.8216.

...more...


http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5044502

Dollar Slips After Fed, Focus on Payrolls

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar slipped to four-week lows against the euro on Wednesday, remaining weak after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled a it could take a gradual approach to interest rate rises expected to start this year.

Though futures markets expect the Fed to hike interest rates for the first time in four years by September, the "measured" approach it announced on Tuesday toward removing accommodative monetary policy sounded less aggressive than some had expected.

This left markets awaiting Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report as the biggest event on the horizon affecting interest rate expectations, which acted as a key support for the dollar during its rally of nearly 12 cents from February to April.

"Expectations for a contraction in interest rate differentials between Europe and the U.S. are being somewhat downgraded," said Shahab Jalinoos, senior currency strategist at ABN AMRO.

"And because the dollar's fortunes have been quite tightly linked in a cyclical sense to these expectations that is leading the dollar to weaken against the euro."

<snip>

At 10 a.m. EDT, analysts expect the U.S. Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing activity to fall to 64.0 for April compared with 65.8 in March.

Also at 10 a.m. EDT U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow testifies before a House Appropriations Committee's transportation, treasury and independent agencies subcommittee hearing.

...more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 07:42 AM
Response to Original message
4. Patient No Longer, Fed Still Measures Its Words
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&cid=baum&sid=abANCtjGgJi0

snip>
What It's Not

The Shadow said it had no idea what the neutral funds rate is -- the rate that keeps the economy growing forever at its non- inflationary potential -- ``but that neutral real rate is clearly not negative.''

The Treasury market didn't know what to make of the statement, which featured an upbeat assessment of labor market conditions (``hiring appears to have picked up''), an acknowledgement of the changing inflation outlook (``incoming inflation data,'' not inflation, ``have moved somewhat higher''), and a risk assessment balanced with respect to growth and inflation.

First Treasury prices went up. Then they fell. At the end of the day, prices were lower and the yield curve was steeper.

``Yet another Fed triumph -- steepen the curve by suggesting you're going to tighten slowly, no matter what,'' said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

From Theory to Practice

snip>

To delineate a path for policy, instead of a goal (such as an inflation target), when policy makers don't know what the future holds is something of a confidence game.

What happens when confidence gets shaken? As the future looks increasingly inhospitable to a 1 percent funds rate and a ``measured'' policy response, the game is up.

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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 07:46 AM
Response to Original message
5. UPDATE 1-IMF's Rato sees no inflation risks in US
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5045285

MADRID, May 5 (Reuters) - New International Monetary Fund chief Rodrigo Rato said on Wednesday that U.S. economic growth had no inflation risks, but added that the U.S. government needed to work on its budget and trade deficits.

"The US economy ... is in a phase of very strong sustained growth ... and clearly it is growth that doesn't include inflation risks," Rato told reporters.

"There are two deficits .. which clearly should be corrected, one is the budget deficit ... and the other is the trade deficit, and in that (latter) correction other economic recoveries, particularly that of Europe, will play a role," he added.

snip>

"The position of the (IMF) is clearly that the performance of currencies must reflect the reality of economies...but also that corrections should be in an orderly manner, not in a brusque fashion that can affect market confidence," Rato told a news conference.

"... Thus any policy which tries to distort that situation is not positive in the medium term," he added.

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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 07:57 AM
Response to Original message
6. From Forex news and analysis
http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

Dollar Adds to Losses, Oil Nears All Time High by Jes Black

The dollar extended its loses on Wednesday following a sharp decline overnight through key technical support levels. The euro broke above downtrend resistance from its all time high of 1.2925 to last week’s 4-month low of 1.1760, rallying 4 cents to a session peak of 1.2179 as it nears its first key resistance mark at 1.22. Last week we warned of an impending top in the dollar and the steep across the board selloff took its toll on dollar/yen this morning after a three day topping process above 110 finally gave way. This happend despite a steep 2% drop in the Nikkei to back below the 12,000 mark, which has proved to be strong resistance. The only currency to not make any headway is the Canadian dollar, as the US dollar only recently broke above a six month long resistance barrier at 1.3450 and continues to trade near last week’s 8-month high of 1.3792.

But the dollar’s recent losses may abate in the coming days as traders take to the sidelines ahead of the much-anticipated US payrolls data for April. Expectations are for 170,000 jobs after 308,000 in March. Again, the whisper number is much higher with some estimates topping 250,000.

snip>

Oil Hits New Highs, Nears Critical $40 Level

WTI Oil rose above $39 per barrel on Tuesday, less than one dollar from its pre-Iraq war high of $39.99 and two dollars away from Gulf War I high of $41.15. Momentum remains bullish and OPEC’s decision to keep supply tight to push prices higher to account for a weaker dollar has added to fears of a growing insurgency in Iraq and the possibility of shortages this summer. This could push prices to a new all time high in the WTI grade. However, the steep selloff in silver last month is often a harbinger of danger for commodity prices in general and could signal a potential intermediate top in oil in the near future.


Fed Statement Whipsaws Bonds, But Not the Dollar

The media was quick to attribute the dollar’s decline to the Fed, as its policy statement gave no indication of an immediate increase in rates. But the market had already priced in higher rates, with the 10-year yield rising from 3.67% to an 8-month high of 4.63% in just over one month. The dollar added to its gains from February and March as rising yields forced some of the most favorite carry trades to come unwound. But the dollar’s recent move appears more technical in nature as the corrective rally stopped right at its two-year old downtrend resistance at 91.50 in the dollar index and 1.1760 against the euro nearly two weeks ago. A selloff in the dollar from here was nearly certain, which is why we argued on April 22 that the euro’s “trio of support” trendlines would likely hold, and that a break above downtrend resistance would see strong follow through buying targeting 1.22 ahead of 1.2350 (Apr 22, Euro Finds Trio of Support).

Bonds were less sanguine about the Fed’s decision, showing a sharp whipsaw move on the wording of the announcement. The Fed dropped ``patient'' and said rates can be raised at a ``measured'' pace because of ``low'' inflation and ``slack'' resource use. 10 year yields first fell then rallied to regain rising trendline support from its March lows. But key resistance at last year’s peak of 4.7% in the 10-year yield has so far capped its gains. The 30 year yield reached a new 8-month high of 5.35%. Therefore it will be interesting to see in the coming sessions if the 10-year yield can confirm the 30-year yields new high. Failure may mark the first sign of an impending short term correction in yields which would be a bearish development for the dollar.

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 08:27 AM
Response to Original message
8. Stocks edge up as Fed paves way for rate rise
US stock indices took in their stride the announcement from the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) on Tuesday that it would leave interest rates unchanged but would be "measured" in making any future increases.

Having spent much of the day locked in a tight range, the indices jerked upward immediately after the central bank declared victory over deflation and said it would be cautious in lifting borrowing costs from their 46-year lows.

-cut-

Even though the Fed said price stability had been achieved, several economic indicators have hinted at increasing inflationary pressures. As such, traders and investors are only concerned with and have struggled to prepare for the timing of an interest rate increase and its consequences for the economy and profits.

Prompted by the amount of talk about monetary policy, Ned Riley, the chief investment officer at State Street Global Advisors, wrote to clients: "We must end this mindless and useless speculation about which FOMC meeting will mark the beginning of the end. We all know it will happen. . . . What's the big deal?"

story
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 08:48 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. HA! What's the big deal? It's already priced in! A little slowdown in
Edited on Wed May-05-04 08:48 AM by 54anickel
economic growth might be a good thing.

Sounds like they are almost begging investors to dive in, doesn't it?

Sounds like a pubescent invitation to get screwed! :evilgrin:
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 08:53 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. "There's value in the market."
As President Stupid was saying when the Dow fell below 8,000. The rallying cry we hear in the article echoes those comments. While it is true that buying low and selling high will yield profits, this rhetoric does not address the issue of a potentially oversold market.
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 09:14 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. Yes, today's wrap up does a great job of explaining that again. It's
hard to look at the current markets and economy overall as "healthy". Seems like only the symptoms, rather than the disease have been treated for so many years.

Have we progressed from a chronic disease to a terminal one? Was the emergency fund rates simply palliative care?

Perhaps it is time to prepare the US$ to meet its maker?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 08:46 AM
Response to Original message
9. Dow opens flat and gets flatter
9:45
Dow 10,301.58 -15.62 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,950.87 +0.39 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 1,118.52 -1.03 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.509% -0.035

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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
12. ISM reports
Edited on Wed May-05-04 09:09 AM by UpInArms
U.S. APRIL ISM NONMANUFACTURING INDEX 68.4 % VS. 65.8%

U.S. APRIL ISM SERVICES JOBS INDEX 54.5% VS 53.9% MARCH

will post a news link as soon as one comes out

{edit to add link and blurb)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38112.420150463-814263961&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. April services index sets record high By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Activity in the nonmanufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy expanded to a new record high in April, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. The ISM's nonmanufacturing index rose to 68.4 percent from the previous record of 65.8 set last month, indicating more strength in the services sector. The increase was larger than expected. Economists expected the index to slip to 64.5 percent. Sixteen of 17 industries grew in April. New orders rose to 65.6 percent from 62.8 percent. The employment index rose to 54.5 percent from 53.9 percent. The prices paid index rose to 68.6 percent from 65.7 percent.

...a bit more...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 09:15 AM
Response to Original message
14. U.S. Treasury to sell two new indexed securities
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5047076

WASHINGTON, May 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department renewed its commitment to issuing inflation-indexed debt, saying on Wednesday it will start selling a new, 20-year indexed bond in July and a five-year indexed note in October.

In its quarterly statement on debt policy, the Treasury said it was also mulling doing away with its policy of regularly offering additional amounts of, or "reopening," its conventional 10-year notes to make room for the indexed securities.

The Treasury also said it will sell a slightly smaller-than-expected $54 billion in conventional securities next week, including $24 billion three-year notes, $15 billion five-year notes and $15 billion 10-year notes.

"The introduction of two new TIP securities accompanied with smaller than anticipated borrowing needs for this year and forecasts for declining deficits going forward has led Treasury to reconsider its nominal 10- year note re-opening policy," Tim Bitsberger, Treasury's deputy assistant secretary for federal finance, said in the quarterly statement.

Currently, nominal 10-year notes are sold quarterly, and then re-opened a month later. The new indexed securities will be sold semiannually.

...more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
15. 11:22 numbers
Dow 10,316.20 -1.00 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,960.31 +9.83 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 1,121.53 +1.98 (+0.18%)
10-yr Bond 4.535% -0.009
30-yr Bond 5.319% -0.010


NYSE Volume 517,175,000
Nasdaq Volume 598,243,000

11:00AM: Off their earlier highs, the major averages are able to maintain their stance in positive territory, with the Dow right at the flat line... As expected, the Fed left the fed funds rate at its 46-year low of 1.0% in yesterday's meeting, but altered the wording of the directive to say that the policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured... Currently, federal funds futures are predicting a 48% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate hike at the June FOMC meeting or a 100% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate hike at the August meeting...
Probability of a 50 basis point increase at the August meeting is at 54%... Briefing.com, for its part, looks for a tightening bias in June and a 25 basis point rate hike at the August meeting, presuming payroll growth remains on track...NYSE Adv/Dec 1753/1208, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1698/1005

10:30AM: The market found its legs on the heels of the better than expected ISM Services report for April, which checked in at 68.4 (consensus 65.0)... Although normally not a market-mover due to its short history dating back to only July of 1997, today's report checked in at a very high level, telling of a booming economy... Remember, that on Monday the ISM Index was reported at 62.4 - a very bullish reading given that anything above 50 is reflective of growth in the economy...

Currently, all of the major averages are trading in the green, with the Nasdaq spearheading the advance, supported by the influential hardware, networking, and semiconductor groups, all of which are sporting gains of over 1%...

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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
16. ANALYSIS-Fed seen keen to avoid 1994 rerun but risks remain
(This time it will be different)

http://www.forbes.com/home/newswire/2004/05/05/rtr1359957.html

snip>
"It's not going to be a repetition of 1994. That has been the roadmap for a lot of market participants," said Peter Fertig, chief fixed income strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Frankfurt.

"This is indicating that (tightening) will be at a far lower pace and to a lower extent than the market has previously assumed," he added.

The fear of a repetition of 1994 stems from the parallels between then and now in that U.S. interest rates were low, the economy was picking up and the dollar was weak.

One big difference this time round is that most analysts see little current risk of inflation. Bond investors fear inflation as it erodes the value of their income streams.

snip>
With capacity to spare in the labour market, economists see even the recent surge in oil prices to 13-year highs having little impact on wage inflation and worrying central bankers.

snip>
Calverly said he foresaw two possible tightening phases. He said the fed funds rate could rise to about 4.00 percent over the next two years in a "normalisation" but that if inflation did take off, rates could hit 5.5 or 6.00 percent.

more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
17. Downfall of the dotcom deal-maker
http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1210034,00.html

Frank Quattrone, the former Wall Street high-flyer who was found guilty of obstruction of justice earlier this week, wielded enormous power during the dotcom mania of the 1990s.

The most senior banker so far to be prosecuted in connection with the excesses of the internet era, Quattrone was accused of interfering with a government investigation into the allocation of shares in hotly demanded initial public offerings (IPOs) in late 2000.

It was the second time the US government had tried to convict Quattrone. The first trial ended in a hung jury.

Over the years, Quattrone helped to raise $65bn (£36.2bn) for technology companies. Between 1998 and 2000 alone, he and his team at Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) led 138 hi-tech IPOs - as many flotations as were handled by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley combined.

more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 12:04 PM
Response to Original message
18. U.S. stocks waver as session wanes
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040505/f47e874ee25fc811bbd635a2d460ad31_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks were mixed in afternoon action Wednesday as a record reading on the economy's services sector, and a $10.5 billion merger in the banking industry failed to keep the Dow above the flat line.

The Nasdaq, however, was clinging to a slight gain, helped by an upgrade of tech bellwether Dell Computer. Investors also continue to digest the latest missive from the Federal Reserve, which left rates intact late in Tuesday's session but tweaked the language of its statement to prepare Wall Street for an eventual hike.

snip>
Breadth within the Dow turned negative with losers ahead of winners, 21 to 9. The leading declinerrs were J&J, JP Morgan Chase, and Caterpillar.

snip>
Volume reached 749 million on the New York Stock Exchange, and 844 million on the Nasdaq. Advancers were well still slightly ahead of decliners on both exchanges, 16 to 15 on the Big Board, and 16 to 13 on the Nasdaq.

more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 02:02 PM
Response to Original message
19. Merits of currency basket arrangements
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,115652,00.html

In a world of generalised flexible exchange rates among the major currencies, pegging to a basket of currencies is a feasible and attractive choice

FOLLOWING the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest consultation with Malaysia, the institution's executive directors acknowledged the overall good macroeconomic performance of the country since emerging from the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

As in previous years, they also noted there were no pressing reasons for Malaysia to forsake its rigid US dollar peg (that is, the ringgit did not appear obviously misaligned), but went on to suggest that the Malaysian authorities may want to think about introducing greater exchange rate flexibility at some stage in the future.

According to the IMF, 'such flexibility would help to manage risks associated with capital flows, alleviate the burden of adjustment on fiscal policy to deal with shocks, and facilitate adjustment to structural changes in the economy'.

more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 02:04 PM
Response to Original message
20. 3:03 update
Dow 10,322.02 +4.82 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,963.02 +12.54 (+0.64%)
S&P 500 1,122.88 +3.33 (+0.30%)
10-yr Bond 4.569% +0.025
30-yr Bond 5.344% +0.015


NYSE Volume 1,135,382,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,238,487,000

3:00PM: Volatility is the story of the day, as the major averages keep with their trendless trade... The Dow is currently hugging the flat line and continues to underperform the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq on a relative basis... 17 of its 30 components are in the green, with leaders to the upside including Coca-Cola (KO 51.02 +0.75), Boeing (BA 44.02 +0.74), and Procter & Gamble (PG 106.72 +0.47)... KO is higher after naming Neville Isdell, a former top official for one of its bottlers, as the new chairman and CEO...
Laggards of note include Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 54.27 -0.53), General Motors (GM 47.61 -0.33), and Caterpillar (CAT 78.81 -0.20)... GM is struggling in the aftermath of a Wall Street Journal article pointing out that the company's finance arm contributed most of GM's earnings...NYSE Adv/Dec 1812/1425, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1801/1275

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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 02:30 PM
Response to Original message
21. US rates to rise gradually
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/102670/content.asp?menu=market&dia=552004

We did not get our favoured rate hike. Apology. We still forecast a series of 25 point hikes at 3 monthly intervals, albeit commencing in June rather than May.

We did get the expected market calming attempt by way of the statement. The key word was clearly “measured”. The Fed will be raising rates in a measured fashion. This signal to the market would we suggest have been more powerful and in fact calming if rates had been hiked by 25 points. The Fed is being amazingly gentle, but it leaves the market still worried about how much the hikes will be, 25, 50 or 100 point hits.

What it means is that the US economy will be allowed to run as strong as it likes. The Fed is ignoring the risks of an over heating economy. Longer term this could mean a return to the 70s and 80s style boom bust cycles. Medium terms it confirms US economic out-performance will be with us for some time.

If the market chooses to focus on relative economic performance then the USD will again be well supported for a period. If however the market chooses to focus on the inadequacy of coming rate hikes to draw in additional capital flow, then the long term down-trend train may have already left the station.

Having always argued that this was the case, that Fed hikes would not be enough to change the long term down-trend of the US dollar, it may be that we just missed our own train. My apology if this is the case. Yet there is still something about the price action of the last few weeks that suggests we may yet get the favoured fresh USD high before down-trend resumption.

more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
22. Daily FX Weekly Market Report
A few interesting charts in this one

http://www.dailyfx.com/article_rr_037_050504.html

With the culmination of the FOMC monetary policy meeting, the next major event risk for the US dollar is Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Although the market is not anticipating a repeat of the exceptionally strong +300k payrolls growth that we saw last month, it is expecting payrolls to increase by the second largest amount in three years. For the time being, the market will be relying on data to get an updated assessment of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Payrolls will be pivotal in helping to determine the next direction for the dollar. In the Eurozone, there are early signs that domestic data in the region has been improving. Encouraging gains were seen in recent PMI surveys. Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are scheduled to announce monetary policy on Thursday. Although the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged, there is a general consensus that the BoE will be raising rates by 25bp. UK economic data, particularly that of consumer spending and housing continue to be supportive of higher rates. Recent comments from BoE officials are equally hawkish. The only impediment is low inflation, however BoE Tucker does not believe it should inhibit further tightening. Japanese investors will be returning from holiday on Wednesday. Although USDJPY continues to be driven by news from China, the rally appears to be losing steam and Japanese fundamentals continue to favor an eventual resumption of the downtrend.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (based upon weekly charts)

EUR/USD At the close of last week’s trading bar, little change occurred on the surface, however this does not mean that it did not leave clues to the future. This week’s low of 1.1758 rests just below the weekly SMAs & EMAs respectively at 1.1851/1.1782. Over the course of last week’s trading session, we rallied past our 40 SMAs & EMAs at 1.1987 and 1.1978. Notice in both cases that the simple moving averages are still trading above the exponential moving averages. Bulls may wait for a crossover before initiating any longs with conviction. On the other hand, bears may have little metal in their fight, since we cannot seem to break below our long term support, which at one time acted as resistance, in a classic ”resistance becomes support”. This support may have further weight since it also (coincidentally) lies on the 50% retracement fibs, and the lower Bollinger band. So, for the time being, both camps seem to be in a stalemate until our downward triangle can be broken in one direction or the other. A weekly break and close above our 40 moving averages, or a break and close below this clear support could be the signal for a change or continuation in the trend. Pay special attention to our indicators such as the slow stochastic, currently registering an oversold state. A crossover here may forecast the storm to come.

more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 04:10 PM
Response to Original message
23. Closing numbers.....Helloooo, anybody out there?
Dow 10,310.95 -6.25 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,957.26 +6.78 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1,121.53 +1.98 (+0.18%)
10-yr Bond 4.570% +0.026
30-yr Bond 5.348% +0.019


NYSE Volume 1,469,226,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,586,484,000

Close Dow -6.25 at 10,310.95, S&P +2.03 at 1,121.58, Nasdaq +6.78 at 1,957.26: Behind today's relatively flat to slightly higher close lies a volatile session in which traders exhibited little conviction, as reflected by the anemic volume totals... The market's malaise occurred in the face of generally upbeat corporate and economic developments... Specifically, Banc of America raised its rating on Dell (DELL 35.80 +0.49) to Buy from Neutral, while Cypress Semi (CY 14.93 +0.88) increased its Q2 guidance... The ISM Services report came in at 68.4 (consensus 65.0) and was telling of a booming economy...

Accordingly, the major averages spent the bulk of the session trading in positive territory... Nevertheless, participants were hesitant ahead of Friday's Employment report, which could prove to be market-moving, particularly on the heels of last month's report... The latter caused a re-evaluation of expectations for interest rates and led to a spike in the 10-year note yield, which increased from 3.9% prior to the report to over 4.1% at close of trading on April 2 and to 4.59% currently (10-year note down 5/32)...

Looking at sector action, the bulk of the groups closed the session in the green, with leaders to the upside including the hardware, semiconductor, computer storage, biotech, healthcare, regional bank, and casino & gaming sectors... Among the laggards of note were the REIT, gold, insurance, auto manufacturing, forest & paper product, and oil services sectors... The latter declined on a sector downgrade from Banc of America to Underweight from Underweight (see Briefing.com's Upgade/Downgrade Briefing for more details), despite an uptick in the price of crude oil to a new 13-year high of $39.57/bbl...NYSE Adv/Dec 1639/1645, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1696/1429

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DoBotherMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 06:30 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. I check this thread everyday
Please keep up the great work ... the info is important to those of us who are neophytes. Dana ; )
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 08:15 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. "54, Oz, UIA, Frodo, Julie, and the rest who stop in...you do a great job!
Edited on Wed May-05-04 08:17 PM by KoKo01
I always read and imagine many "lurkers" do also. I even "bookmark" for weekend reading when I can't get to all the information.

I know sometimes it's quiet..but please keep this up! Thanks are not always in great supply here lately, but some of us can cough it out and hope you know how much you are appreciated!

:-)'s to all of you. Great toons...I send them to folks and the info is better than all day with CNBC/Bloomberg and the rest of the "Pushers."

Again....thanks...MUCHO THANKS!

AND a HUGE HUG to "54aNickle" who slaves away finding just the right news for the day here and is helping us hold on to our "nickles and dimes and maybe some of that "fiat money." :D "54" and "Ozy" are DU treasures!
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Merlin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-05-04 08:18 PM
Response to Original message
26. Thanks, guys. I check this thread about a half dozen times every day.
I really appreciate what you guys do here.
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