White House Derby: Bush's mysterious lead

The 2004 campaign mystery deepened this week: George W. Bush faces as perilous a foreign policy impasse as any president in the past 25 years, and yet presumptive Democratic candidate John Kerry still lags behind him in opinion polls.

Noting the frustration in the party’s ranks, some Democrats say Kerry should be ahead by 10 points. In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday, Kerry trailed Bush with 42 percent to the president’s 46 percent, with Ralph Nader at five percent.

This was despite the finding that 49 percent of those interviewed said that Bush does not deserve a second term as president and 60 percent said they think that the United States isn’t really in control of the situation in Iraq.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4917656/


The reason this is breaking news is becuase of everything we know to be a lie and the truth. From Bush Sr. snacking with Bin Laden's brother on 9/11 to the Arkansas Project. None of which 99% of Americans know about. OK, so I'm upset and over reacting. At least I could have still done a better job than Rumsfeld did. Which brings me to murder/Manslaughter. Part of what this story is about. The American media is guillty of Manslaughter. From our soldiers to the Afghan who were rounded up and stuffed into freight containers and some 3000 died. Yes, I'm guilty too of posting this in LBN. It's sort of like comparing me to Clinton.

ps. Bush never flew a jet solo. Let's get to that truth too. How a fighter pilot got his license without ever flying solo!!!!!!!!!!!

AMB. WILSON: Actually, I haven't asked Bob Novak to reveal his sources. And I think you can understand after you interviewed Mr. Woodward last week that when 75 people speak to Mr. Woodward with the authorization of the president and only two of them want to be identified, you can imagine that those who have other information but are fearful of what the White House might do, they also do not want to be identified. And I say that because, of course, I mention in the book that there are also reports from journalists back to me that they're fearful of writing these stories. One journalist said because he was afraid he would end up in Guantanamo, which is basically I think a metaphor for their being cut off. Another one said that, of course, they had two children in private schools and a mortgage. Now, I've since heard from other journalists that even the most mildly critical articles about this administration yield top-level phone calls back to their editors including phone calls from Mr. Libby himself to their editors.

I'm sure glad Wilson is saying these things and I bet there are many journalists who are secretly cheering him on.

They are so afraid of these a**holes. They have the money and the power to make someone disappear into thin air and they will do it without a second thought. They need to stay in power at any or all costs. I'm sure they wouldn't have second thoughts of taking out a family member if they got in their way. They are downright diabolical. The shame is that the people in this country are going to find out when it too late.

Bush Circles Wagons, But Cavalry Has Joined the Indians

by Jim Lobe

In the old Hollywood westerns, the white settlers circle the wagons to defend themselves against attacks by the Indians until the U.S. Cavalry can arrive to rescue them and chase off their assailants. But in Washington over the last few days it seems that the Cavalry has joined the Indians.

US President George W. Bush, backed by his vice president and national security adviser, have been circling the wagons around Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld since the White House told reporters that the president had given him a mild rebuke over the prisoner abuse scandal in Iraq.

But the embattled Pentagon chief may have made too many enemies – particularly within his armed forces – to be saved.

While Bush praised Rumsfeld for "doing a superb job" during a rare visit to the Pentagon Monday morning, his words were somehow unable to overcome the distinct sounds of knives being sharpened in the hallways just outside, as well as across town on Capitol Hill and at the State Department, where Secretary of State (and former army general) Colin Powell compared the possible impact on U.S. foreign policy of the abuse photographs to the 1969 disclosure of the infamous My Lai Massacre in Vietnam.
(snip)
http://www.antiwar.com/lobe/?articleid=2545

they were afraid to write anything bad, they could be just as effective by not writing anything good. Write about Barney, the twins, the WH track.

Not!

It's called propoganda and the pollsters are in on it. Make it look close enough to steal, then Diebold does the rest.

Bush's "real" numbers are around 30-35 percent..We see that over and over again in some of the polls, but the questions are convoluted and vague, and they keep coming up with the "likability" factor.. I have a son whom I love dearly, but I would NOT vote for him to be pres..A flake is a flake is a flake :)

The numbers are fake...just like the president.

Unfortunately, Diebold is REAL....Did you know that Jeb ordered more voter purges in Fla??? They have not even restored the ones they purged 3 years ago..:evilgrin:

A flake is a flake is a flake :)
This is strategy!! This is my sister saying "I was?????" and smiling coyly when she gets pulled over and the cop tells her she was speeding. No crime there if they didn't know any better.
There are HUGE numbers of people who will let people off the hook when they play dumb. That is what made him the ideal president for this criminal administration. Until the left catches on and makes him take responsibility, there will be people who will fall for it. As long as we're out there pushing the line that he's dumb we're hurting ourselves because we're giving him his out.

...$hrubco's positive ratings are no where near as high as reported. But THAT'S THE POINT.

meme A unit of cultural information, such as a cultural practice or idea, that is transmitted verbally or by repeated action from one mind to another.

If you keep repeating a meme long enough, it becomes a self-fulfilling statement, that's it goal. For example: "* is ahead in the polls..." Even though this statement may be patently false, if it's repeated enough, eventually it's accepted as fact. So it doesn't matter if it's true or not! Remember kkkarl rrrove telling gee-dubya to "stay on the message, stay on the message." That was his meme for gee-dubya.

I have never seen anything like this b4. Americans ARE outraged.
Although new to posting I have read this board for a long time. (Damn hotmail)
We are not in the minority!
You all know what is going on. EVERYTHING is a lie. All the media is culpable. Both parties have been overtaken and are run by the same people. America has "FREE SPEECH ZONES" so you won't see the outrage on TV. It is all very obvious to everybody. No amount of propaganda can change the facts.
What makes any of you trust any poll?
We should be talking about our plans once Bush/Kerry co win the election and we are still fighting two oil wars, still supporting IMF/WTO/WORLD Bank policies that oppress millions and destroy the environment, and still watching Media brought to you be Kellogg Brown and Root.

Remember 95 - 3 terra and mayhem was approved in Iraq When Negroponte was confirmed and Kerry failed to show.

Hmmmmmmm......

You mentioned:

From our soldiers to the Afghan who were rounded up and stuffed into freight containers and some 3000 died.

Bartcop has a link to the movie on that.

Go to http://bartcop.com - it's about 2/3rds down the page. It will really scare you when you see it.

... in November. I don't believe "it's a dead heat" polls for a second.

It is probably 42-45% of the likely voters. The thing is that Bush has been successful at cultivating this base of support. His father was not and so the prospect of his loss didn't concern them too much. The rightist base sees this as life and death--which it in fact is. Bush has a built-in advantage regardless of these events. We have to overcome it through hard work. Please remember that this was not supposed to be an election in doubt--post-9/11/01, Bush was supposed to be "invincible."

this election will not be won on anything important. it will be won on who has the best campaign, who has the best message. the folks on this board are into the facts, but the average joe blow (indies), well they just don't have time for facts. they have more important things to do, and places to be, then worrying about facts and truths. give it to them in easily digestible bites, and they will thank you for not bothering their TV time with votes.

kerry needs to hire some tv people who know how to put on a show, and he will get his 10 point lead with ease. but if he goes around like he is now, trying to do presidential stuff, and look presidential, well he's going to have a big plate of crow to eat. and we will get some nice new shinny supreme court justices.

"I'm just like Bush*, only better". He simply doesn't draw any real distinctions between himself and the current misadministration. He seems to be taking the base for granted and making the same mistake Gore did (despite Gore's win, it should have been by a wide margin) by anticipating a greater level of interest and factual understanding from the electorate. Catchy phrases (like "fuzzy math") and "likability" are what win elections these days.

I had lunch with a republican earlier this week who HATES Bush* but can't find any reason to vote for Kerry (other than that he's not Bush*). I told her about his environmental record (one of her big issues) but she said "I've never heard that about him before. Can you send me some links"? She just sees him as a wishy-washy, unlikable slimy politician who won't be a big enough improvement over * to warrant giving him her vote. She may in fact go for Nader (not if I can help it, of course). I do have to agree with her on some of her points; Kerry doesn't seem trustworthy, isn't charismatic, and I really don't know exactly where he stands on several big issues. it really does feel this time around that I'm supporting the lesser of two evils (it's just that the greater evil is MUCH more evil)!

I don't think the poll numbers are off. I live in a town that went for Gore last time around, and this time I'm seeing four times as many Bush* bumper stickers as Kerry stickers. I pray that he turns things around, and quickly!

A solid military career, an articulate anti-war protester (while still in his 20s), a prosecutor, and a multi-term senator...

And, if you must, you can find his position on the issues here

http://www.johnkerry.com/issues/

because he has these issues by the shorts hairs and has an unassailable position from which to break the stalemate of illusions and lies.

As Bush himself destroys all military options that would cause Kerry to get suckered in to continuing the PNAC agenda. all Kerry has to do is sweep in all the swing voters and let the media be dragged kicking and screaming to his position.

It ain't pretty. It does not satisfy people who have seen Lieberman and Daschle and others get snookered into being naive Bushistas, but it is potentially very very smart.

Remember Bush is hiding behind a smokescreen of doing the right thing for America. Byrd can state it is the wrong thing and the wrong time done the wrong way for the wrong motives. The people are getting there with regards to that. Kerry has to prove he can offer just the opposite and not let W lose and surrender all of America's role in the world. Further, W is handling things so badly, that Kerry's options will be much more limited and easier to reverse the immorality, the war and the occupation without being branded as an isolationist peacenik.

The weak attack on Kerry, backed on strident lies, is that they cannot smoke some controversial issue branding out of him to distract from the disaster that is Bush. As dramatic as one would wish things to be, the dogged suppression of the weak strategy and strongly countering the noisy lie machine will safeguard higher dividends as the weeks grind Bushco into dust.

Barring some strange dramatic prop the GOP will have to be sweating needles about going on with Bush before the convention.

By then it will be far too late.

Hopefully(I HAVE misplaced hope before) this is a gritty strong campaign strategy in face of unfair money and media odds, NOT a betrayal of ideals or a sellout. Close examination of Kerry, from character to stands and recent speeches would seem to lend real confidence that this is exactly on point what is going on.

There is a point in the battle(sometimes premature) when one side shouts victory and lunges for a rout. We who see the rout looming long for such a moment, but for now the polls, the media and the misinformed populace show that moment- however inevitable- has not arrived yet.

DUers or political junkies) have said. It's their impression, and impressions count. Very few in the electorate are going to read the articles we do, so the "vibe" and impression they get from a candidate is everything. Kerry needs to work on his message, I don't think there's any doubt about that.

He really doesn't offer any real alternatives, just this "I would do it better than they would" crap. He needs to cultivate real alternatives and real policies we can stand up and be proud of. I'm not proud of much of what comes out of Kerry's mouth, except when he bashes Bush.

Anyone who puts a democratic bumper sticker on is asking for vandalism.

I'm not saying it never happens the other way, but wingnuts ARE violent and destructive--it's what they do best.

From Grandpa Prescott Bush's Money Laundering Pals, the Nazis up through to the KKK of the 50s to the Busheviks of today these monsters rely on intimidation and fear to silence opposition.

Please do not be intimidated. I ahve Kerry Bumper Stickers on my car and have not experienced vandalism.

The times we live in are so crucial, with everything we Free Americans hold dear hanging off the edge of a precipice, that...

...if the Colonial Aremy can march down ice-clogged roads with their bare feet bleeding in the snow, if the prisoners could survive the Bataan Death March and fight dug-in troops fighting to their death...then I can risk some yahoo keying my car...and GOD HELP HIM if he is caught by me in the act

Please DON'T be intimidated and don't give up!

I live in a strong Republican stronghold. 4 military bases and the headquarters of "Focus on the Family" here...bet you can't guess where I live! My car has the following bumper stickers : Focus on your own damn family; Re-defeat Bush in 2004; Freethinker and I Vote. I just got my Kerry 2004 sticker and will be placing it in an area of prominence! Nothing has happened to my car yet (knock on wood) but, I believe in being loud and proud.

:hippie:

"I do have to agree with her on some of her points; Kerry doesn't seem trustworthy, isn't charismatic, and I really don't know exactly where he stands on several big issues."

People who are helping spread this lie are either secretly working for Bush or Nader or stupidly buying into Rove's plan to divide and conquer. Why is it that person after person comes to this forum after attending a Kerry event and reports the exact opposite? And why do people on this forum continue to ignore first hand reports of fellow DUers, and instead, rely on the media that we all know whores for Bush?

Never thought I'd have to convince supposed fellow Democrats to stop spreading Bush lies, but when it comes to Kerry, seems they just can't help themselves.

it means that I want my candidate to be a BETTER candidate who will WIN! Children love with blind devotion, adults understand that those they love are fallible, and may at times need a little criticism. Since I very rarely watch commercial television (I don't even have cable) or read the mainstream press beyond what is posted on DU, I'm not exposed to many Rove memes. I'm certainly not brainwashed and don't appreciate the implication. When Kerry speaks I do not feel inspired. I saw him at the democratic meeting here in Florida and simply wasn't impressed. I'm happy that you and others are excited and inspired by this candidate, but obviously there are many people who feel differently. He needs a better speech writer, a better message, and he needs to work on his delivery in my opinion. He SHOULD be thirty points ahead of Chimpy Mcdumbass by now. Sure, the media has played a part in his low numbers, but Kerry done a lot himself to piss off his base which could be one reason his numbers are WAY below what they should be. He's got plenty of ammo, he only has to use it.

Can Howard Dean give Kerry lessons on how to be fired up? I never would have chosen Kerry to be our nominee.. he has a nice record, etc... but in the age of sound bits and video quick cuts, Kerry comes off like a mortician most of the time. Get the man back on that Harley or something... He's too boring for the media to even cover... even Jon Stewart makes fun of him.

But recently I haven't seen much from Kerry for the media to be unfair about.

the media isn't doing much reporting on Kerry, by any chance? And if they actually decide to, it's something negative? I believe so.

There is no way anyone can blame Bush's support on ignorance, or media bias, or intimidation. It's fascism pure and simple.

from Dean's playbook. He told it like it was in words ordinary people related to. Even people who didn't like him liked his plain spokenness. Kerry seems to hymn and haw around. Jon Stewart hit it right on the head last night. bush's bush had a short sweet message and Kerry's went all the way around the bus and it wasn't succinct. Kerry's not been known for charisma and it seems like what he does talk about like Venezuela becoming a dictatorship and graduation requirements are either wrong or boring. I wish he'd pick Clark as a running mate-Clark could also tell it like it is. Maybe he is just biding his time and going to make a big splash later. I hope that is the case. I'm not sure he can win with just the ABBB crowd-we're plentiful but probably not the majority.

just asking.

not that Kerry copy Dean's policy book, but rather that he
adopt a direct approach so that when he opens his mouth, you
know right off the bat where he stands on the issue. Instead,
what we get is a tortuous medley of waffle words that end
up not saying much of anything except "I would do whatever
you think I should do to get your vote".

The truth is that Kerry won primaries because voters (as was documented in polls) were led to believe that Kerry was the safe bet. They were so afraid to take a chance, and Kerry and the DLC's message of supposed "electability" pushed him ahead.

If one could read back on my posts at the time, I argued vehemently that the issue of "electability" was a myth. There were polls surfacing showing Kerry leading Bush by a miraculous 30% in some places. Kerry offers nothing new.. nothing exciting.. We'll be lucky if he can squeak by in November. America fell for the DLC marketing ploy.. "electability", when in fact, Edwards or Dean could have done much better.. at least they wouldn't be boring the media and public to death. The reason Kerry isn't getting a ton of coverage is that he isn't doing anything interesting.

Kerry's corporate-politico handlers have once again produced a bland product. I imagine, as with Al Gore, the actual candidate is much, much more fun and more electable than the handlers make him out to be. They just have a way of adding milk to every recipe and turning it to mush. Howard Dean was exciting because he wasn't handled, he had energetic people around him, and he spoke what he felt. Kerry, bless his heart, has to check the committees.. the latest polls.. the consultants.. before he opens his mouth. Once again, the media will favor Bush because he's more interesting. Even though they KNOW he's a prick.

John Kerry would be in the polls today if the media treated him the way they treated Howard Dean. The media made Dean and they broke him down again. Not to mention that Kerry actually won primaries.

Sorry, I just never thought there was much to Dean, and still don't, and now I see it as counterproductive to say Kerry should be more like Dean Every candidate has some fired-up supporters in his camp and what we need is for all the people previously fired up about another guy to transfer their wonderful enthusiasm to John Kerry. I'll admit that my enthusiasm for Kerry is much less than my enthusiasm for Dennis Kucinich, BUT I can transfer my enthusiasm for Kucinich into enthusiasm for Kerry taking the reins away from Bush. Let's all get fired up about putting a Democrat in the White house!

Bush runs ads on kerry's flip flopping and the media reinforces them with bogus stories on Kerry's "flip flopping"

Kerry sits on the sidelines while Bush has his worst week ever.

Preloading their arguments for another otherwise highly suspect election 'win', the reupugs will point to these 'polls' and claim their little rat-bastard W was always in the lead. Believe nothing that is in any way assocciated with Wall Street is my rule.

Ronald Reagan dramatically changed the way the Repugnicans fight elections. He adhered to some very simple strategies: a) keep the message simple, b) use incendiary rhetoric, c) write off groups where you are unpopular so the rest will more than compensate, d) use religion as a theme, e) use patriotism as a theme and f) use low-risk wars against defenseless enemies (demonized to appear powerful).

The democratic answer to this with educated, articulate policy-masters like Mondale, Dukakis and Gore played into their hands.

An average Joe 6-pack looks at his country as his "team" and its successes and failures as sporting events. Every stupid war whether in Granada or in Iraq was cheered on by these crowds and thus cementing them into the repuglican domain. Ronald Reagan wore his anti-minority policies as a badge of honor -- which made droves of southern democrats vote for him.

Enter talk radio. Rush Limbaugh and the gang has spewed the vitriol so much for so long that some of these people have been brainwashed.

Thus, a formidable combined domain of evangelicals, hicks and subtly racist people has been created that votes en bloc republican.

Bill Clinton's genius was that he was able to keep the message simple, appear dumb enough not to terrify the hicks and coddle religion just enough to make the faithful happy. He was also helped by Ross Perot.

If Kerry wants to win this election, he needs to master (a) having a simple message, (b) deliver it so the hicks can understand it and (c) put his opposition to Bush in the context that would be incendiary to the trailer parks. 179 point plans and 700 page reports won't win him the election.

He also needs to take the initiative rather than reacting to Bush - it makes him appear non-presidential. For example, Kerry can WRITE OFF the Miami cuban vote and take a stand against the oppression of Cuba. If Gore had sided with Elian Gonzalez's return instead of waffling, he would have had the support of the rest of the nations. It is not like the Miami cubans were going to vote for him anyway. I'd like to see Kerry say "It is time for America to show it is not afraid of Fidel Castro. We should stop the economic embargo and the silly tricks to keep the Miami cubans happy. Let's begin trade with Cuba, create American jobs and influence cuban society with more contact rather than less. Let's also recognize that Fidel Castro won't be forever and let's create conditions so that his successor won't be anti-American." Surely this will piss off the Miami cubans but he won't lose any votes there. He will appear like a leader and will win votes in the rest of the country. It will also put the Chimp on the defensive.

Lastly, we DESPERATELY need competent liberal talk radio. I wish we had Bill Maher, Bill Clinton and Governor Dean on the radio daily to counter the Limbaugh/Savage/Hannity/O'Reilly poison.

I am sure everyone here at DU knows this but why are the democratic strategists not thinking?