Kerry pulls ahead of Bush in new poll

with apologies to WillPitt, no sitting president has recovered from numbers like this to win re-election

to quote a fav DUer "Say goodbye WhistleAss"

If recent history is any indicator. The state of the union address usually produces a bounce--not this one, though. The trip to Iraq... zilch outside of FREEPland. Capture of Saddam... well, a brief uptick that quickly disappeared.

The convention's likely to be similar. Could be an outright disaster if the repression of protestors gets out of hand a la Chicago 1968, which could easily happen. No way in hell can Chimpy or any other Repuke address the issue of skulls being split on the sdiewalk outside, other than to smirk and toss out vapid accusations.

My fond hope? That the Repuke convention is such an ugly, unpleasant celebration of greed, bigotry, warmongering, lies, and stupidity that they never recover. I think that's distinctly possible... wouldn't be the first time.

:evilgrin:

It will be years before they will recover, and it won't be the same party that we know. * will make greed a dirty word once more.

It would be great to have a two-party system in which one of them, which will remain nameless (MR. SUBLIMINAL: Repukes!), doesn't stink like an overused, unserviced Port-a-John on a hot day.

:puke:

It is only just. Stealing Florida should have been enough in itself but Bush's 4 year performance clinches it.

... 6 months, in fact... and much could go awry in the meantime; but, as in any game, I'd prefer to be ahead than behind.

The election should be a Kerry landslide; it's his -- and ours -- to lose.

But it is indeed the Democrats' to lose.

And that, as recent history suggests, is a scary thought.

These polls are very encouraging but lets remember that it is a long time until the vote in November and that we can not let our guard down. Bush and Rove have not given up and there are some dirty tricks up their sleeves.

the political environment is very volatile given the possibility of significant events both overseas and domestically that could change people's attitudes about particular policies and personalities.

That's not a stable environment to make predictions unless you are also polling people on how they would choose given certain possible future scenarios. And its not clear that you can cover all the scenarios in their kinds and degrees of effect or that people can or will say how they really would react.

That said, I think the Kerry needs to start innoculating himself against certain possibilities - very delicately - so he doesnt have to bring them up if events occur and then be accused of political opportunism. For example, he needs to start pointing out how the administration has failed to properly fund the first responders and how there actions havent matched their rhetoric in this area.

to roost on the WH big time.

All Kerry has to do is not take anything for granted. During this period of uncertainty, Bush has had his minions mining the field so an unsuspecting John Kerry will do himself in, free and clear of any partakers of the Bush administration.

stay safe, Sen. Kerry!

I will sleep better tonight because of this

and will get more interesting as time goes on..

(That song:)

"No Where To Run"...

can do strange things to people who feel they are above the law.

We ain't seen nothing yet.

I'm sure they'll pull out all the dirty tricks in the book and some not invented yet. Of that, I have no doubt!

Be prepared. :scared:

I'd love to see the tension going on. Everyone telling rove he'd better come up with something that will turn it around. What a grand sight that woud be.

started babbling incoherently to paintings yet.

It's 51% to 46% without Nader. When you add Nader, Kerry and Bush both lose 2%. Before all Nader votes were were coming from Kerry.

To me it says Republicans are jumping ship and looking for any independent candidate. They don't want Bush!

Probably 'Real right' repubs who can't stomach voting for Shrub and Reichsmarshall Ashcroft again, but can't bring themselves to vote for the Dem. The right-wing libertarian set. (Contradiction in terms if you ask me, but no one did.)

And how many states are they on the ballot?

I think you are on to something. Bush is losing votes to Nader too. :think:

The news article made the point that this election may be more than about a particular battle ground state. The article made the point that the election may break across a number of states and that this was more of a "national election."

So, if that is true, who would be the best VP candidate under the circumstances of the news article? It seems to me that Clark and Edwards would be best for this kind of election. Any thoughts?

That's who I'm praying Kerry will pick.

. . . . but I'm hoping it's Edwards, based on comparative advantage.

Isn't it obvious?

I'm sorry but we need someone with foreign policy and military experience...and Edwards has none. If this was peacetime...Edwards would be good. But, we NEED the good General now.

...or near to zero. However, he might be a good VP candidate BUT wouldn't you want him in a major government post instead?

Now is not the time to "learn on the job"

Nadir isn't hurting Kerry at all. He's getting 2% from each candidate & 2% from the Undecideds. The Kerry-Bush percentage is the same with or without Nadir in the mix. I think that might mean that a lot of Repukes are disgusted with Bush but can't bring themselves all the way to Kerry, so they vote Nadir in protest. Works for me.

Want to win? Register 25 people to vote in Dem areas of your state. Then bring ten Dems to the polls with you on election day. It's that easy. We turn out, we win--and there's nothing Osama, WMD, Diebold, or Jeb can do about it.

So I will!

"Want to win? Register 25 people to vote in Dem areas of your state. Then bring ten Dems to the polls with you on election day. It's that easy. We turn out, we win--and there's nothing Osama, WMD, Diebold, or Jeb can do about it."

"Want to win? Register 25 people to vote in Dem areas of your state. Then bring ten Dems to the polls with you on election day. It's that easy. We turn out, we win--"


Not sure where I heard this, maybe O'Franken last week --

When polls report "likely voters," they are not talking about people who answered a question about whether they were likely to vote. The pollsters define "likely voters" as those who have voted in previous elections. Therefore, no matter how likely to vote a person actually is, it's her/his voting record, rather than intentions, that determines their status for polling purposes.

This means two very important things: First, many people have become so thoroughly disgusted with Boosh that they are registering for the first time just so they can vote against him. These newly-registered voters are not counted in the "likely" column. Second, if we Dems are going out there and registering new voters and doing our best to get them to the polls, we are not only boosting our numbers but doing so under the poll radar and keeping that info from the hands of the pukes.

(edited to fix typo in subject line)

Xian fundie exp. prefd. Blond/blue a plus. Must look squeaky clean, hate evildoers, have non-serving hand ready for salutes and pledges on short notice. Business attire only. Long hrs., lo pay, no bens. Refs. req'd. UnEOE. Ask for Kenny Boy or Tommy D at MSG servants' entrance.

:hi:

polls mean little, but I'm glad to see him ahead instead of behind. Lets hope Kerry can find a way to get nader to leave the race, from what I've heard he's not even trying.

Man ran a swift boat. Got himself and crew home alive. Let's not jiggle his elbow.

Good point!

Welcome to DU!