Martin wins minority government

TORONTO - Paul Martin's Liberals have survived a near-death experience to win a minority government ? Canada's first in 25 years.
The CBC decision desk predicted a Liberal minority victory at 10:22 p.m. EDT.
A Liberal minority government means nothing about the country's immediate political future is certain except the prospect of more uncertainty.


http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2004/06/28/canada/elxn_call040628

And I think that may be the best case scenario for progressives!

and BQ is up from 33 to 54

and 9 independents are now 1

Other than increasing the size of Parliament from 301 to 308, it does not seem to be a "major" swing - except in Quebec.

So isn't it safe to say that they'd side more with the liberals than the conservatives?

So really they're not in the typical minority....

So this looks like very good news for progressives

Forever and always.

?

It looks like the Liberals will be somewhere between 8-12 seats short of that. So, in order to form a government, the Liberals need to make a deal with another party, in order to create a coalition government. The leftist NDP is the obvious candidate. Most likely, the Liberals will agree to back certain NDP positions and appoint some NDP members to Cabinet posts. It also gives the NDP a virtual veto over anything the Liberals do, since if they pull out of the coalition, the government will collapse, and there will be another election. On the other hand, if the Liberals feel stronger at some point, they can call another election, hoping to do better. (I believe they have to wait at least 6 months, but I'm not sure about that.)

We hardly ever do coalitions in Canada. What there will be is sort of a gentleman's agreement to work together in Parliament; there will be no NDPs in Cabinet. For more, check here:

http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/politicalcanada/minoritygovernment.html

The NDP will be in no hurry to bring down the Government, when a party does that they frequently get punished in the resulting election. The Creditistes did that to Joe Clark's PC's in 1979 and were subsequently wiped off the map.

But I was watching CBC earlier, and one of the analysts said that the NDP would expect at least a couple of appointments.

I'm no expert though, I may have misunderstood.

The Liberals will have to form a coalition with the NDP so they will have to lean more left than they would if they had won a majority. The bonus to this is that Harper didn't deliver the minority government he so arrogantly boasted he would and he will have to answer to the fact he did not break into Ontario as he was supposed to.

I always felt that no matter what they were telling the pollsters, Canadians would not vote in a right wing government, no matter how mad they were at the Liberals.....These two parties have worked together before to good effect....Hurray for Canada!!!!

I predict he will never be PM.

That would make a larger government.

The NDP would be much easier to work with than the Bloc who would force the Liberals to give Quebec more independence which would not be popular in the rest of Canada. Everyone in Canada, outside Quebec at least, is happy that nobody will have to ally themselves with the Bloc.

Also, I believe that this will be a minority government which is different from a coalition governement. In a minority government other parties support the government but are not a part of it while a coalition involves two or more parties being part of the government. I assume that the NDP will not take part in the government, but I'm not entirely sure.

The BQ would probably want another independence referendum in exchange, and the Liberals won't likely go for that.

I think there is a lot more room for them to compromise with the NDP.

The rest of Canada is probably very tired of Quebec and its positions.

Liberals134,CPC93,BQ56,NDP24:hi:

i2lovenicepeople. Welcome to DU. :bounce:

Unless - they wouldn't form a coalition with the conservatives would they? That's the problem with centrists, they can go either way.
Is it likely?

Minority pushes Canada left
OTTAWA (CP) - In case of parliamentary gridlock, turn left.

Canadians will awake to their first minority government in 25 years, a Commons presided over by Paul Martin's chastened Liberals with the NDP as co-pilot. It seems a stunning turnabout for an election that 10 days ago projected the possibility of the most conservative federal government in national memory.

More stunning still is that Martin could actually celebrate the modest victory, given widespread predictions only months ago that the Liberals were en route to an historic majority of more than 200 seats.

In a campaign that was all about fear and loathing - fear of Stephen Harper's Conservatives, loathing for the lackadaisical Liberals - the fear factor apparently won out.

It's safe to say no party captured the imagination of the electorate.

snip


"The fact is we're really not going to pay much attention to what they're saying," Martin said in one December interview shortly after becoming prime minister.

Now, Martin will have to pay a great deal of attention.

Layton raised the NDP's popular vote dramatically, which bodes well for the party under new election financing rules that base public subsidies on vote counts.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/CanadaVotes/2004/06/28/518044-cp.html

In the end, that's all that really matters.

The NDP did just fine. They've got the balance of power.

It's one short. Irony is a bitter mistress, eh? Still our popular vote is good (16%) and I am happy for Canada. Incidentally, congratulations on McLellan's victory.

You do.

And I was right when I told you that the Conservative slide was to the Liberals benefit, but no you had to insist it was to the NDP's favor.

Thoughts?

Rather selective memory there.

Layton took more jabs at Martin than he did on Harper hoping to siphon some Liberal support and i'm talking about waaaaay before the election campaign even started.

Didn't happen.

But in this belief, I think they are sadly mistaken.

On a more serious note, I hope the NDP pushes the proportional representation notion.

HA!! SNORT!

in his address tonight, and quite forcefully. Something like, "We'll expect Paul Martin to take a good long look at proportional representation" as a condition of any cooperative endeavors.

This morning's paper mentioned that Martin belatedly promised to end the equalization funding/offshore oil royalties clawback for Nova Scotia. If he breaks that promise, the Liberals are toast in this province. Without those six seats, he wouldn't have a viable minority government, so he'd better not change his mind.

Big winner tonight was the Bloc. They won big. Second: NDP--they (well, we as far as I'm concerned) made impressive gains in total votes.

Just projected to win her seat in Alberta.
http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/riding/253/

And the only non-NeoCon seat in the whole province. As Marg Delahunty observed, "What is it with these Alberta voters?????"

:silly:

He is a Liberal, in Edmonton as well. Edmonton actually elects non-conservatives fairly regularly, in provincial and federal politics. As to the rest of the province, well that's a mystery to me too.

Edmonton Strathcona voted about 60% Liberal/NDP, but the conservative got the nod due to the vote splitting, as I had feared. Both candidates were high quality, so it was hard to know who to throw your support behind in an attempt to vote strategically.

I really had expected the NDP to gain more seats but I think people voted Liberal at the last minute to keep the neocons out. Thankfully. And Jack Layton won his seat and we have Ed Broadbent back too! Yay!!

It could have been far worse. I shudder to think of the possibilities but that is all behind us until the next time...

The Liberals only got 135 seats and the NDP got only 19 which leaves them one short of the necessary 155 to reach a majority. However, the independent just elected from British Columbia lost the Conservative party's nomination and ran as an independent and won easily. He said he will let his constituents decide in a scientific poll which party he should join. So, this entire situation could become very complicated unless he joins the Liberals or a recount turns around one seat and there are a few that are very close. In New Westminster-Coquitlam the Conservative Paul Forseth leads New Democrat Steve McClurg by only 45 votes with all precincts counted. I assume an automatic recount will be ordered. Hopefully, there aren't any hanging chads out there in British Columbia.

The BQ are pretty liberal are they not? Did the PCs win any seats, or are they part of the Conservatives now?

Best result would have been Liberal + NDP with more than 155 seats - and it looked like that when I went to bed last night.

Maybe the independant in BC will join the Liberals.

Sid

although it will be intriguing to see how legislation is crafted to get 155 votes out of 157 seats, ouch.

You know, that's what the U.S. Greens could have done in 2000 rather than spending all their money and effort on Ralph Nader. Can you imagine what six Green congressmen could have done in the previous Congress?

From the BBC Online
Dated Tuesday June 29 10:03 GMT (3:03 am PDT)

Bittersweet victory for Canada's Liberals

The leftist New Democrat Party doubled its representation in parliament and looks set to hold the balance of power.

I really like Canada's New Democrats a lot better than America's New Democrats. They are more than just better than Bush and the neocons.

CALGARY - Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is not ruling out quitting after winning fewer than expected seats in Monday's election.

Reynolds says the party can recover, after it holds a policy convention and Canadians see what the Conservatives stand for. But he says not having any policies on paper before the election was the party's ultimate failure.

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2004/06/29/canada/electionharper040629


Brilliant idea.
Why didn't they think of this before the hijacking!

They are going to have to put into words their positions on choice, universal healthcare, all the hot-button issues Harper did his best to avoid during this election. I hope they do it soon so there is more ammunition in preparation for the next election!

Need.
They took over the PC's, and I mean it was a take over, and then tried to walk in as a right of center party.
I think that Harper sees the slow grind from the PC's and is wondering if after the dust settles between the PC's and reform if there will be anything to his liking.
If the PC's could come back as a right of center party with the reform rump to their right, then I don't think that the Liberals could use the scare tactic for a third time.
I think everyone is waiting to see what the new Conservatives' policy is now.

The NDP and the Liberals were the majority in most of Canada with the exception of rural parts of BC and all of Alberta (except for Edmonton). I saw a lot of seats grabbed by the Tories with just 35 or so percent of the vote, meanwhile, the Liberals and NDP would garner nearly all of the rest of the vote.

Also, interesting to me (I'm from Northern California though). The NDP seems to be strongest in Winnipeg, Vancouver and the Northern Provinces (Yukon Terr., NWT and Nunuvat).

What's happening here? Had the NDP and Liberals agreed on some of their candidates, they could have done a number on Tories that won by eeking out a narrow plurality in the face of a left leaning vote. Seems like the Tories are on the long downslide.

What's a Canadian take on this?