Zogby Poll Presidential Matchup 7/26-29/04

Summary: KE leading BC in All, Men, Women, East, South, West -- but not Midwest.

I'm a little leery of that one. Is this a regular poll or the interactive one?

... here's a Reuter's article which looks like it might be discussing the same data:

Zogby Poll Shows Democratic Ticket Up 5 Points

BOSTON (Reuters) - While the Democratic National Convention was under way, the Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney lost some ground to John Kerry and John Edwards, a poll showed Thursday.

The poll by Zogby America showed that though the Democratic ticket didn't gain points during the four-day convention, the Republicans lost three percentage points to the undecided category.

The poll of 1,001 likely voters conducted from Monday through Thursday found Kerry-Edwards leading Bush-Cheney 48 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent undecided ...

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=5822627

:kick:

LAT interactive map: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,1,2794139.flash

Another map with data: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Places that have people are in favor of Kerry..

(no offense to DUers who are midwesterners....but you gotta admit that people are a minority in some midwestern/mountain states):)

we're so desperate we even try to claim Cheney as a person!

It's very encouraging to see these numbers coming out of the South- can you imagine Kerry taking 3, 4 red, Southern states?
Rove's head would explode.

Bush Keeps Commanding Lead In Kentucky
(CPOD) Jul. 30, 2004 – George W. Bush would carry the state of Kentucky in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Survey USA released by WHAS-TV. 52 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbent, while 42 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry. Five per cent of respondents are undecided or will choose another candidate ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3600

Nevada Remains Too Close To Call
(CPOD) Jul. 30, 2004 – The state of Nevada has no clear frontrunner in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 46.8 per cent of respondents would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, while 46.2 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 0.6 per cent of respondents ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3596

Bush Up, But Kerry Leads In Pennsylvania
(CPOD) Jul. 30, 2004 – Massachusetts senator John Kerry could carry the state of Pennsylvania in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 51.8 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic nominee, while 45.3 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 0.9 per cent of respondents ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3598

Kerry Keeps The Pace In West Virginia
(CPOD) Jul. 29, 2004 – Massachusetts senator John Kerry is the top presidential hopeful in West Virginia, according to a poll by American Research Group. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee in the 2004 United States presidential election, while 44 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of three per cent of respondents, while six per cent remain undecided ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3593

Bush Gains, Kerry Still Leads In New Hampshire
(CPOD) Jul. 29, 2004 – Massachusetts senator John Kerry could carry the state of New Hampshire in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 47.3 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee, while 42.7 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 3.1 per cent of respondents ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3592

Bush, Kerry Remain Even In Florida
(CPOD) Jul. 29, 2004 – The key battleground state of Florida remains too close to call in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 48.5 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbent George W. Bush, while 48.4 per cent would support prospective Democratic nominee John Kerry. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 0.9 per cent of respondents ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3584

Presidential Race Tied In Minnesota
(CPOD) Jul. 29, 2004 – The state of Minnesota has no clear frontrunner in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Strategic Vision. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, while 47 per cent would support Democratic challengers John Kerry and John Edwards. Independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo garner the support of two per cent of respondents, while four per cent remain undecided ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3581

Kerry Breaks Deadlock In Tennessee
(CPOD) Jul. 28, 2004 – Massachusetts senator John Kerry holds a slight advantage in the state of Tennessee, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 49.1 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee in the 2004 United States presidential election, while 46.9 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 0.6 per cent of respondents ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3579

Kerry Barely Over Bush In New Jersey
(CPOD) Jul. 28, 2004 – The state of New Jersey has no clear frontrunner in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind poll. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for prospective Democratic nominee John Kerry in the election, while 41 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of six per cent of respondents ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3575

Missouri Finds Kerry, Bush In Close Contest
(CPOD) Jul. 28, 2004 – The state of Missouri is too close to call in the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 48.8 per cent of respondents would vote for prospective Democratic nominee John Kerry, while 48.1 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 1.5 per cent of respondents ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3570

Bigger Lead For Bush In Arkansas
(CPOD) Jul. 28, 2004 – George W. Bush could carry the state of Arkansas in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 47.4 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbent, while 44.6 per cent would support prospective Democratic nominee John Kerry. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of two per cent of respondents ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3566

Kerry/Edwards Keep The Pace In California
(CPOD) Jul. 28, 2004 – The Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards could carry the state of California in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic challengers, while 38 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. Independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo garner the support of five per cent of respondents, while two per cent would vote for other candidates and six per cent are undecided ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3568

Minnesota With Kerry In 2004
(CPOD) Jul. 27, 2004 – Massachusetts senator John Kerry is the top presidential hopeful in the state of Minnesota, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 50.6 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee in the 2004 United States presidential election, while 44.2 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 1.7 per cent of respondents ...
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3561

Kerry should be up double digits there but he only leads by ONE POINT?? Can someone from there explain what's going on -- some local scandal in the Dem party or something?

My only conclusion is they wish to measure the rise in support for Kerry before his speech on the closing night. Expect several polls to be released shortly that show Kerry leading Bush by anywhere from 10-20 points.

realistic. Anything more than that this year would be extraordinary. Clinton is only challenger ever to receive a 16 pt bounce. That was largely due to Ross Perot's dropping out of race two days in to the Dem convention.
The Repukes are attempting the sway the media in to believing that a 15 pt bounce is to be expected, knowing that it is very unlikely this year they are hedging that the media will be dumb enough to take that bait.

astute comments fearno
I remember that 15-pointer from Clinton's convention. Pure Ether! Love to see it again... but alas...

I predict an 8 point bounce from convention

Kerry wins Nov 2 by 3 - 5 percent popular; don't have an electoral college prediction yet but I think it will be significant... 100 EV at least.

PHN

:bounce:

I've been keeping track of their polls and they've been way off.

I heard NJ is a difficult state to poll. I heard polls showed it close in '00, but Gore won it by 15 points.

I have no doubt that Kerry will do about as well in NJ.

It's not in play.

One has a tie, one has Kerry/Edwards ahead.

McGreevy has some scandals tied to him, so I think that might hurt Kerry a bit. I can tell you when I drive on the GSP everyday, I see at least a 2:1 ratio between Kerry and Bush* bumper stickers. I think by the time the base here is activated, Kerry will pull way ahead.

However, I do get a little annoyed that our state and others in the NE are basically taken for granted.

NJ has consistlenty voted for Dems by comfortable margins in recent presidential elections. It will be there for Kerry. I am more worried about why Minnesota is still tied.

has been a good 7 points off the mark from other state polls. Also NJ is traditionally a difficult state for polling. Scandals with Dem Gov. McGreevy are continuous - could be a factor.

...the place where I live. :)

Oh well, I will continue to be a voice crying out in the wilderness, I guess.

And isn't it amazing that he leads among men and in the south. Rove's head must be ready to explode.

when all the media were talking about how * would carry all 50 states. I remember reading that and thinking the Repugs would have to eat those words.

I don't even know the last time a Democratic candidate was preferred by male voters. I don't think it's been at any time in my 43-year lifetime. And I assume that this poll was completed before last night's prime-time testosterone-fest.

So that might be accurate.

They say my state(N.C.) is a Bush state, but i don't see it. Almost everyone i know is all for removing Bush. Most of these folks are people who normally don't vote, but will this yr. Even if i gotta drag'em to the polls lol!

:hi: From another NCer! Hope you enjoy DU. It's addictive.

When you get a chance, visit the NC forum.

very slanted questions. They asked 20+ questions and then wanted to know my race, religion and NAME. Obviously, I refused to answer the last 3 expressing my concern over the election being stolen in Florida.

At least his polls I can half-believe.

Good News!

Just keeping my end of the bargain up.I thought it was a bit strange that I was being polled before Kerry's big speech. Thanks for clearing that up.

We'll keep plugging away out here...