Slight Bounce: ABC Poll

--snip--
The Massachusetts senator gained five to eight points among registered voters on issues and attributes alike, while Bush lost about as many. And after a convention that focused heavily on his military experience in Vietnam, Kerry leads Bush as "better qualified to be commander-in-chief," by 52 percent to 44 percent.
--snip--

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_bounce_poll_040802.html

--snip--
Among registered voters, 50 percent support Kerry in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, 44 percent Bush and 2 percent Ralph Nader — a gain of four points for Kerry and a loss of four for Bush from the pre-convention ABC/Post poll.
--snip--

.jc.

Trust Candidate on These Areas:
Trust to Handle Now Pre-convention Net Change
Health care Kerry +19 Kerry +3 Kerry +16
Terrorism Bush +3 Bush +18 Kerry +15
Iraq Kerry +2 Bush +12 Kerry +14
Taxes Kerry +6 Bush +6 Kerry +12
Education Kerry +13 Kerry +1 Kerry +12
Economy Kerry +11 Bush +1 Kerry +12
Health care Kerry +19 Kerry +3 Kerry +16
Int'l relations Kerry +9 NA NA
Intelligence Kerry +5 NA NA

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

The percent of Democrats polled in the sample is 8% higher than in their last poll. The results are more caused by changing poll sampling than anything else.

Almost every other polling firm adjusts totals to a consistent R/D/I total.

Re-weight either poll (either so they both show a 39/29/26 weight, or a 34/33/29 weight) and the bounce is around zero to -1%.

More people are IDENTIFYING themselves as Dems in this poll, there's a difference...

"There was some movement in political party identification in this poll: Among registered voters, 39 percent say they're Democrats, 29 percent Republicans and 26 percent independents (among likely voters, who account for 55 percent of adults in this poll, it's 40 percent-32 percent-24 percent). That's more Democratic, and less Republican, than usual; it was 34 percent-33 percent-29 percent among registered voters in the last ABC/Post poll. Moving loyalty, of course, is precisely what conventions are all about."

They didn't go out and sample more Dems, more people IDENTIFIED THEMSELVES as Dems. That's a big difference and probably has to do w/ what they wrote in their last sentence and is significant in and of itself. If more people in a supposedly random sample are identifying themselves as Dems, that's GOOD news for the Dems in general...It's also to be somewhat expected after the convention...We'll probably see a shift in those numbers again in favor of the Repubs after their convention, though I suspect it won't be as significant...

Which is why other polling firms balance for that.

There's no way that 8% of people just switched from one party to the other.

People who once considered themselves independent, who may now, after watching the convention and deciding to vote for Kerry, consider themselves Dems. And people who once considered themselves Repubs, who are upset w/ Bush, may now consider themselves independent (I know several people who have done just that)...And, believe it or not, there are some who considered themselves Repub and are now voting for Kerry and would consider themselves Dem.

Don't argue w/ me, argue w/ ABC because that's essentially what THEY are saying in the paragraph.

"Moving loyalty, of course, is precisely what conventions are all about."

It certainly seems according to this poll, that some loyalties have moved. That's not hard to believe as far as I'm concerned.

The WashPost poll had a 46/46 tie a little less than a month ago and moved to a 48/46 lead for Bush right before the election. Was this evidence of the Edwards pick having a negative bounce? No, they changed the number of Republicans and Democrats in the poll to relatively overweight Republicans. There was very little movement of how many republicans liked Bush or how many Democrats like Kerry or the relative balance of independents. (Note - Are you really suggesting that 8% moved to calling themselves Republicans right after the Edwards pick???)

NOW they have gone back to roughly the weighting they had a month ago. The results? Over the last month, the combined "bounce" for picking a VP plus the convention totaled 2 points.

This is not the stuff of celebration.

Nor is it cause for great fear. I have said polls matter little at this point for the last couple months. Consistently whether Bush is moving several points ahead or Kerry is.

Wait for the debates. The foils are barely crossed at this point.


What nobody talks about is that the convention "bounces" are really only relevant in relation to each other. The test of the "everyone had already made up their mind" theory (which I share) will be what (if any) "bounce" Bush gets.

And that's what I'm talking about...The Pollsters who took the poll think differently, that's why they wrote what they did, that they chalk it up to a result of the convention and a switching of allegiances, as it were.

I'm not making any judgements about the size of the bounce so I don't know why you're arguing w/ me about it. I'm commenting on the shift in voter identification. It's evident and the reasons for it might vary, but the pollsters have their idea and I'll take their idea over yours any day; that it's a result of the convention and that more voters are identifying themselves as Dem. Period. And that would make sense to me following the Dem convention. They didn't ADD more Dems through a sample bias, or at least they don't say they do, they chalk it up to the convention. You may think they're full of shit and they changed their sample and biased it or weighted if differently and are lying about it or at least implying differently, and that's possible and I'm the last one to think any organization is incapable of this, but I doubt it considering their pro-Bush bias in the past. It would be odd for them to all of a sudden swing their sample to pro-Kerry/Dem.

You have no evidence that the shift in party affiliation is due to a difference in their weighting technique or a sampling bias. If you do, then present it. I haven't seen their methodology in that detail though...

But more people are reporting themselves as Democrats... this makes sense...

Wow.

It <i>is</i> a bounce.

Look folks, millions protested the war- in America. Millions went to see F9/11. What do you expect?

As a candidate and a party get more popular, people become more
likely to identify themselves as members of that party, regardless of their true political alignment.

Reweighting the internals of the poll is a voodoo solution, and speaking as a mathematician, it's no substitute for a good random sample.

Let the data be the data.

People don't identify themselves automatically with the party of their chosen candidate ("Reagan Democrats" were still Democrats and proved it by electing dozens more Democrats to the House than Republicans in 1980). Exit polls show nothing CLOSE to the shift in party affiliation your theory implies.

Heck, you can disprive it right from the poll itself. Say Kerry got 89% of Democrats in the poll and Bush got 9% (not far off from the current polling) Those 9% aren't calling themselvesd "republicans" are they?

The "non voodoo" polling data (which you will hardly ever see) would simply give % support among self-described Democrats etc. You can then determine who is "leading" by what turnout expectations you have. Political scientists talk about it all the time - "Johnson needs a 3% better turnout among his base to compensate for Roberts' lead among independants" etc.

These telephone polls, especially weekend polls are ALL crap. You want a valid poll, you pound pavement. I did that back in the early eighties and our results were vastly superior. Trouble is, it costs like a mother. ABC, CNN, and the like are not going to pay shit for these so you get what you pay for. And then I get to read all the jabber about it.

Movement...Kerry is ahead in just about EVERY category!!

:-)

group of voters. WOOHOO! Kerry is kicking bush ass!

THAT is the bottom line for November.

Historically, the ABC/WP has been one of the worst in terms of a pro-Bush bias...Not as bad as Gallup, but close, so this poll is GREAT news!

which has the race closer.

I'm SURE they will want to report this. :eyes:

This is a terrific bump!

Trust to Handle... Now... Pre-convention... Net Change
Health care....... Kerry +19... Kerry +3... Kerry +16
Terrorism......... Bush +3... Bush +18... Kerry +15
Iraq.............. Kerry +2... Bush +12... Kerry +14
Taxes............. Kerry +6... Bush +6... Kerry +12
Education......... Kerry +13... Kerry +1... Kerry +12
Economy........... Kerry +11... Bush +1... Kerry +12
Health care....... Kerry +19... Kerry +3... Kerry +16
Int'l relations... Kerry +9... NA... NA
Intelligence...... Kerry +5... NA... NA

BTW - Those are Damned good 'net changes', no???

:shrug:

Kerry's bounce is NOT slight, it's SOLID...

:toast:

:toast:

... to get a fixed-width table. Space compression is still a problem, though. (I wish the <code> </code> tags worked.)

:hi:

... and really missing protest marches with extraordinary folks like on that fine day in October 2002! :hi:

That helps a lot! :toast:

As of now, Bush has only a narrow lead on terrorism. We need ot hit on that, since the truth is that Bush has bungled the war against al Qaida by going into Iraq.

I think most of us have already committed and the boost for Kerry, shows that. Only few in the middle seem uncommitted and those are the ones who will probably swing to Kerry.

n/t

only says "Slight Bounce"

when Poll Shows Kerry Gained (4% RV, and 6% LV)


http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_...

Slight Bounce Poll Shows Kerry Gained Limited Support After DNC

.... registered voters, 50, 44, 2 Kerry — a gain of four points for Kerry and a loss of four for Bush from the pre-convention ABC/Post poll.

... likely voters, 49, 47, 2 kerry - six-point shift toward Kerry

Bush's overall job approval rating (all Americans)- 47 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove


Trust Candidate on These Areas:
Trust to Handle... Now............. Pre-convention.... Net Change
Health care....... Kerry +19......... Kerry +3........ Kerry +16
Terrorism......... Bush +3........... Bush +18........ Kerry +15
Iraq.............. Kerry +2.......... Bush +12........ Kerry +14
Taxes............. Kerry +6.......... Bush +6......... Kerry +12
Education......... Kerry +13......... Kerry +1........ Kerry +12
Economy........... Kerry +11......... Bush +1......... Kerry +12
Int'l relations... Kerry +9.......... NA.............. NA
Intelligence...... Kerry +5.......... NA.............. NA

Main Issues
Now Pre-convention Net Change
Economy voters Kerry +27 Kerry +1 Kerry +26
Iraq voters Kerry +46 Kerry +33 Kerry +13
Terrorism voters Bush +68 Bush +62 Bush +6


Opinions About the Candidates
Personal attributes Now Pre-convention Net change
Leadership Bush +6 Bush +19 Kerry +13
Security Bush +3 Bush +16 Kerry +13
Values Kerry +6 Bush +6 Kerry +12
Honesty Kerry +6 Bush +6 Kerry +12
Consistency Bush +29 Bush +40 Kerry +11
Empathy Kerry +14 Kerry +4 Kerry +10
Vision Kerry +13 NA NA
Complexity Kerry +8 NA NA

With the debacle in Florida it has solidified the base like nothing else could. Most of those who voted for Nader now relies that it ended up as a vote for Bush. Unemployment in key states does not bode well for Bush with outsourcing its twin issue. The war debacle has done the same thing especially with women and young people. Look at what Dean did on this subject. Then there is stem cell research. This crosses ALL boundaries. I say once again where can Bush pickup voters?

Slight my This bounce is huge.

Wonder what the secret is to Bush's apparent lock on this category. Any ideas?

Kerry got a 12 pt bump on both of these

Bush-Cheney Campaign Headquarters:
What They Don't Want You To Know

by
Wayne Madsen

JULY 27, 2004: 1000 PDT (FTW) -- Amid a towering cluster of office buildings in northern Virginia stands a 10-story red brick and glass edifice. One of many new office buildings rising along Arlington County's growing Rosslyn-Ballston business corridor, the structure nestled at the end of a cul-de-sac at 2107 Wilson Boulevard has a special mission this year: to ensure that the Bush-Cheney administration is guaranteed another term in office.

One of three buildings in the Colonial Place office complex, Bush-Cheney headquarters has some special features that its two neighboring buildings lack: 360 degree pan and zoom cameras that resemble street lamps and roving private security guards. The reasons for the added security are quite understandable: working at the building full time are Bush-Cheney campaign chairman Marc Racicot; Ken Mehlman, Bush-Cheney '04 campaign manager and former White House assistant to presidential counselor Karl Rove; and a host of other GOP politicos who share the building. Common sights in the driveway are the parked black SUVs and sedans, drivers always waiting at the wheel. Sporting U.S. government license plates and darkened windows, the vehicles are a sign that 2107 Wilson receives a number of high-level government officials along with their Secret Service security details.




snip>>



Absent from the building are any campaign banners or signage indicating that this is the central hub of the national Bush-Cheney campaign. But there are telltale signs that a political campaign is being waged here. Above the maze of cubicles are televisions tuned into CNN (apparently even the Bush-Cheney campaign doesn't put much faith in Fox News and its politically biased, sensationalistic reports). Tacked to the occasional cubicle is a Bush-Cheney '04 bumper sticker or sign.

Yet the Bush-Cheney operation, with all of its security cameras and guards, does not fully appreciate the importance of operational security. While recently walking past the building on a well-traveled pedestrian sidewalk that leads to the Court House Metro station, I noticed that on the first floor, in clear view of anyone who wanted to look, were two 25-inch plasma computer screens. Both had color-coded maps of the United States. Stopping to marvel at the data being represented on the screens, I realized that one of the screens represented GOP tracking polls. In many cases, such internal political party polls - which are always highly classified - represent truer numbers than what is being reported by the national media organizations.

snip>



http://fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/072704_bush_headq...

http://fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/072704_bush_headquarters.shtml

edited to add


sorry, mine came up exactly the same as yours.

I dunno?

Even if you nudge Kerry's lead down and say Bush and Kerry are tied, how much of a bonce could Kerry or ANY candidate really get?

Would a 10 point bounce put the race at Kerry 55 / Bush 35?

1.)Main Issues

.................... Now - Pre-convention - Net Change
Economy voters..... Kerry +27.. Kerry +1... Kerry +26
Iraq voters........ Kerry +46.. Kerry +33.. Kerry +13
Terrorism voters... Bush +68....Bush +62....Bush +6

And...

2.)Opinions About the Candidates
Personal attributes
................Now - Pre-convention - Net change

Leadership... Bush +6... Bush +19... Kerry +13
Security..... Bush +3... Bush +16... Kerry +13
Values....... Kerry +6.. Bush +6.... Kerry +12
Honesty...... Kerry +6.. Bush +6.... Kerry +12
Consistency.. Bush +29.. Bush +40... Kerry +11
Empathy...... Kerry +14. Kerry +4... Kerry +10
Vision....... Kerry +13. NA......... NA
Complexity... Kerry +8.. NA......... NA

Well... I'm gettin a little better at this, LOL!!!

It's wine time now!!!

:toast:

Oh yeah: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_bounce_poll_040802.html

She was on message for the republicans this morning. "The polls show no bounce whatsoever for Kerry." Ass

If the Republicans have such control of the media (remember the coordinated attacks on Dean, and the play pretend Reagan national mourning) why wouldn't they also control the polling process?

Believe the numbers that show up to see the candidates. Trust your instincts. In any honest accounting Bush cannot possibly have a chance.

THE MEDIA IS THE ENEMY