Electoral Vote predictor 2004: Kerry 307 Bush 231

Read it here folks!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The fix is in there.

There is not a single honest or honorable person connected with the mechanism of FL elections at the higher levels.

Ohio & Pennsylvania seem to me, to be the KEY states.If he gets those two, he does not NEED as many of the others.:)


click map to create your own electoral map

Don't count on Florida. All Kerry needs is all of the Gore states plus New Hampshire or West Virginia or Missouri or Ohio....

Hasn't he?

Count on it. Pima County will take it for Kerry like we did for Napalitano.

and I notice that in this scenario if we lose Florida and Missouri we lose 271 to 269.

if we get the Gore states plus NH and WV. Just one more will win it. I'm confident we can win if the game is played fairly.

I'm worried about Ohio and Florida.

But they seem to rely heavily on Zogby's interactive polls. I don't trust that methodology. Zogby may be an ace when it comes to phone polling, but you have to sign up for an interactive poll. That's not scientific. I honestly don't know why Zogby is doing it. Accurate polling relies on randomness. Only the extremely partisan will sign up to take a poll.

on "previous" you will note that not all states are updated at the same time. For example, Ohio shows 7/30 for todays results as well as the prior results. In general I don't know how accurate polls are at all. What about all the people who don't have landlines anymore? What about the ones who have caller ID and don't pick up calls they don't recognize?

... election day is to WORK on the elections. Hoping and dreaming alone won't get votes cast for our ticket.

is it shows that Kerry can win without either OH or FL. That's big.

that will be able to predict the outcome of any political contest. Political science and political polling are, among other things, only as reliable as the techniques and “total” randomization” of samples as they pertain to the viable and likely voters of a particular contest. How one determines “WHO” the likely voters would be, would entail a completely, but, holistically founded research project to define exactly what characteristics a “likely” voter would encompass. This, among other attributes, would include the registration of all of those falling within this population.

However, this is not similar to the Truman-Dewey election of 1948, whereas the “pollsters”, for the most part conceded the election to Dewey because of the profound difference favoring Dewey, weeks before the actual election. Perhaps, some of us have seen the picture of Truman holding up the “headlines” of a given publication announcing the “Dewey victory”. Give ‘em Hell Harry sure did have a big gleam on his face.

There are so many “events” which could, and, probably will affect the outcome of this election on November 2, 2004. So much of the time I feel as though I am just wagging my tail watching the “pollsters”; but, I still continue to so! But, where will we be on November 3, 2004?

Everyone! Keep working! I don’t know about the “fat lady singing”, but, I know there is no sure thing! :kick:

He's doing better than that.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2153657

The Republicans have NEVER had the media stumping for them they way
they are today, and it's only going to get more blatant every day
until November 2nd.

They decide what the issues are. We play on their playing field.
We will spend most of our time trying to defend ourselves against
their "talking points", while our issues are stricken from the
airwaves.

Many, if not most, churches are pulling out all the stops in their
efforts to get Bush* elected, so that abortion and gay marriage will
be banned.

Breaking for the challenger may have been the historic behavior of
undecided voters, but the Bush* regime has consolidated more power
to itself than any other in history. We saw in 2000 and 2002 that
the usual rules simply don't apply any more.

If millions of jobs lost to recession and offshoring, Abu Gharab,
lies about WMDs, Enron, Valerie Plame and Halliburton haven't
convinced them that Bush* is no good, what possibly could?

I presume that the major polls are splitting the undecided voters
down the middle, which seems more realistic.