Chávez recall vote confounds pollsters

Posted on Wed, Aug. 11, 2004



SLOW GOING: A pollster who asked not to be identified makes the rounds in a poor neighborhood in Caracas. STEVEN DUDLEY/HERALD STAFF


VENEZUELA


Chávez recall vote confounds pollsters

By STEVEN DUDLEY

sdudley@herald.com


CARACAS - Good pollsters seek neutrality. But in Venezuela, heading into a recall vote Sunday on President Hugo Chávez, they also seek anonymity as a bitterly divided electorate has put pollsters squarely on the front lines.

''There are neighborhoods that are 100 percent one way ,'' said Belkis Benítez, a 34-year-old supervisor for one of the leading polling companies here, Datanálisis. ``In those places, we have to move with a lot of caution.''

One major pollster, Alfredo Keller, said last week that his researchers could no longer enter certain neighborhoods because of security concerns. For its part, Datanálisis often goes into areas incognito. Adding to the problems, analysts say, some Venezuelans may not answer the questions truthfully because of fears of retribution if their intentions become known. The referendum, pollsters say, may hinge on what they call a ''hidden vote,'' people who will not say publicly where they stand. Those who criticize pollsters have reason to be angry. Both pro- and antigovernment forces have been using the results of polls they commissioned to claim that they speak for the majority. One of the ''polls'' even proved to be a fraud.

The El Universal newspaper last week published the results of a poll it said was from a top pollster, showing Chávez losing Sunday's vote. The pollster, however, declared he had nothing to do with the poll, and the newspaper later admitted that it had been duped; the identity of the pollster is still in question.
(snip/...)

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/9369631.htm
(Free registration required)

the guy who said of Chavez, "He must be killed!"

The troupes of "international observers" recruited to save the rich any inconvenience traditionally include the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Carter Center, and in the case of the Venezuelan recall, they have mustered, dead on schedule. They exerted as much pressure as possible on the country's independent National Electoral Council (CNE), on behalf of the opposition, during the signature gathering and verification process. At the end of the process a few weeks ago, the head of the OAS mission, Fernando Jaramillo, had to be replaced by OAS president Cesar Gaviria because of his rabid public statements. The Carter Center's Latin America team is headed by Jennifer McCoy, whose forthcoming book "The Unraveling of Representative Democracy in Venezuela," leans heavily against the government. One of its contributors is Jose Antonio Gil of the Datanalysis Polling Firm -- most often cited for polling data in the U.S. media. Gil was quoted in the Los Angeles Times on what to do with President Chavez: "And he can see only one way out of the political crisis surrounding President Hugo Chavez. 'He has to be killed,' he said, using his finger to stab the table in his office far above this capital's filthy streets. 'He has to be killed.'"

http://www.freepress.org/columns/display/2/2004/917

What a damned shame he has wormed his way into a respectable group surrounding Jimmy Carter. He's a first class A$$####. No friend of democracy, by any standards.

The energy seems to be all on the Chavez side, and the opposition really doesn't have a popular candidate in the wings. The leader of the previous coup, Carmona, is reviled as a traitor and would not win an election against Chavez.

On the other hand, a lot of Venezuelans are not crazy about Chavez. He is often perceived as histrionic, and causes a lot of eyes to roll. I think it depends on how this disillusioned group votes. Unless they see a clearly better alternative, I beleive Chavez will win.

On Edit: I'm writing a travel piece on Venezuela, but won't be able to finish for a couple of weeks. I was really hoping to have it before August 15.

> ... a ''hidden vote,'' people who will not say publicly where
> they stand. Those who criticize pollsters have reason to be angry.
> Both pro- and antigovernment forces have been using the results of
> polls they commissioned to claim that they speak for the majority.
> One of the ''polls'' even proved to be a fraud.

Gee, sound familiar? Even my father admitted to me that, whenever he's asked whom he's voting for, he just says he hasn't made his mind up, even though he has.

Plus the domestic media will always put banner headlines saying, "Bush Surges Against Kerry" when Bush's poll numbers go from 39% to 41%.

either way though, I doubt this will be the end of these particular shennanigans. Although with the US election so close, Chavez may well buy a year of calm by winning now...

Here's hoping that BushCo doesn't send the US Navy off the coast of Venezuela again for 'exercises', as was the case during the failed coup.

It's all just coincidental, of course. Of course.

And they are masters of election rigging, especially in central and south America. Chavez is very aware of that so I have hope for him. He's far from perfect but his inroads for the poor indigenous people is to admired!

"Oh, well, so many people SAID they'd vote against the recall, but it looks like SO many were REALLY just saying that because they feared retribution from Chavez, that strongman/dictator/megalomaniac. Hey, we're as surprised as you are at HOW STRONG the dislike for Chavez is. REALLY, we are!"

http://www.alternet.org/story/19530

Venez-Florida?

He must have done something right to get his political base motivated to take the streets to save his butt in the 2002 coup. He was warned by OPEC ministers months in advance and had placed his loyal troops in hidden passages in the president's palace, but he was kidnapped anyway. When the poor, his political base, marched in the street demanding Chavez's release, the coup leaders hadn't a clue what to do and eventually Chavez's troops arrested the coup participants.

I pray for a convincing Chavez victory on August 15. It will send a strong message to the neoliberals in the Repuke and Dem Parties that Latin American countries are through with being vassal states for the US.

Still At It in Venezuela

posted by Oread Daily on Wednesday August 11 2004 @ 01:44PM PDT


STILL AT IT

US Ambassador to Venezuela, Charles Shapiro, acknowledged the US financed certain sectors of the opposition taking part in the presidential referendum on August 15. Ambassador Shapiro made the statement based on declarations emitted by the Sub Secretary of State for US Western Hemisphere Affairs, Roger Noriega, who acknowledged that his government had invested great quantities of money in the Venezuelan referendum. Shapiro said the money was not for a political campaign but for “specific programs.”

One way the US funds anti-Chavez forces is via the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). The NED has and is funding many of the same groups which took part in the failed coup against Chavez back in 2002. Some 2,000 pages of newly disclosed documents show that the little-known National Endowment for Democracy is financing a vast array of groups: campesinos, businessmen, former military officials, unions, lawyers, educators, even an organization leading a recall drive against Chávez. “It certainly shows an incredible pattern of financing basically every single sector in Venezuelan society,” said Eva Golinger, the Brooklyn, N.Y.-based attorney who helped obtain the documents through Freedom of Information Act requests. “That’s the most amazing part about it.”

One organization, Sumate, which received a $53,400 grant in September, is organizing the recall referendum against Chávez, Golinger said. The head of another group, Leonardo Carvajal of the Asociación Civil Asamblea de Educación, was named education minister by “dictator for a day” Pedro Carmona, a leading businessman who briefly took over Venezuela during an April 2002 coup against Chávez, she said. A leader of a third group assisted by the National Endowment for Democracy and its subsidiary organizations, Leopoldo Martínez of the right-wing Primero Justicia party, was named finance minister by Carmona, she said.

The NED’s involvement in Venezuela “is in keeping with a pattern from NED’s very origins when the Reagan administration used it to do overtly what it was trying to do covertly in Nicaragua -- undermine the Sandinista revolution,” said Peter Kornbluh of the National Security Archive in Washington.
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http://www.infoshop.org/inews/stories.php?story=04/08/11/7044087

Side view:



Full frontal Shapiro:



Arrogant US Ambassador to Venezuela Charles S. Shapiro says its not a crime to kill a President...

In an Associated Press (AP) dispatch the United States government has said it will open up an investigation into allegations made by Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez Frias relative to conspiracy to assassinate him. Chavez Frias has said that "terrorist groups" in southern Florida have allied with Miami-based anti-Castro radicals.


USA Caracas Ambassador
Charles Shapiro

Amazingly US Ambassador to Venezuela, Charles S. Shapiro says "it is not necessarily a crime ... but we are in the full process of collecting information and we must follow all legal procedures ... if there is anyone to blame, our government knows what to do!"

With typical Washington cover-up rhetoric, Shapiro shakily admits that he has received information that "some Venezuelans have been receiving military training in the United States." He further admits that the information was also published in a Miami newspaper a year ago ... but remains remarkably silent as to why no action was taken by proper authorities Stateside. "We're not going to take action against anybody ... we haven't been able to make any headway!"
(snip/...)

http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=11205
(Free registration required)


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CIA involvement in Venezuela

Hands Off Venezuela Campaign- http://www.handsoffvenezuela.org
---------------------------------------------------------- Venezuelan Group to file court cases against U.S.Ambassador Charles Shapiro

*by Cort Greene*

Caracas,Venezuela April-11-2004

The Association of Victims of the April 11,2002 coup against Hugo Chavez (ASOVIC) have said that they will file court papers at the World Court in the Hague and in the U.S.Courts, charging U.S.Ambassador to Venezuela, Charles Shapiro for his involement in sniper shootings at the Llaguno Bridge durning the coup against President Chavez at the Miraflores Palace, that left several people dead, including a jounalist.

Charles Shapiro is no stranger to being a participant with military coups, having been Deputy Chief of the Mission ( a position usually staffed by the CIA) at the U.S.Embassey in Chile at the time of the bloody and murderous military coup against the democraticly elected President Salvador Allende on September 11,1973.The U.S goverment inspired coup, carrried out by the CIA and Armed Forces of Chile, left in place a terrorist dictatorship for more than a decade.

In a statement by Merly Morales, spokeswoman for the lawyers of the (ASOVIC)," there are elements for conviction, in which in our judgement, serve as evidence to ask for the opening of an inquiry before the U.S.Courts and the appropiate international tribunals" against Ambassador Shapiro.

Evidence ranges from special courses in assault tactics given by U.S.authorities to members of the Caracas Metropolitan Police Phoenix Group and the Chacao and Baruta Municipal Police in the months leading up to the coup to conversations that were recorded in the Center of Operations of the Metropolitan Police on April 11, 2002 between Police Commissioner Forero and Ambassador Shapiro (code name Zeus 32 America) durning the hours of fighting and shots being fired against people with references from the Center that the Phoenix Group should use long-range rifles to neutralize the "talibans" who the police refered to as the pro-Chavez supporters at the Miraflores Palace.
(snip/...)

http://www.indybay.org/news/2004/04/1677334.php

this is a BIG deal We need to take this agency OUT.

Phoney polls and pollsters all created by KKKARL ROVE!!!!

His fingerprints are all over every thing.
Follow his finger prints and they all point back to him.

:kick: