Tropics update--Gaston stronger than thought, Frances strengthens

5PM Eastern updates from the NWS.

Air force recon indicates that TS Gaston is stronger than thought and may reach hurricane status before making landfall along the Carolina Coast late Sunday or Monday. It's a slow mover so rain accumulations will be a problem.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/282029.shtml?


Hurricane Frances continues to strengthen and could reach Category 5 status (the highest level). All interests in the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands and the SE United States should check their Hurricane preparedness and plans.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/282033.shtml?


There are two possible scenarios for Frances. One is for a strong high pressure ridge to build in across the SE US and push Frances near Miami by Thursday.

The other scenario is that Gaston will create a weakness along the ridge permitting Frances to turn more NW towards the Georgia/SC coast.

Frances is taking a path very similar to the one Andrew took in 1992. That could mean bad news for the Gulf Coast too.

.. and we are used to hurricaines turning north before they hit us...

but this...

http://www.w3.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm6/projectedpath_large.html

doesn't look like one of those times...

I think the chances of that ridge building and holding Frances down to the south are pretty good, all of the models pretty much agree...

Heyo

Delray Beach here, and we are hard-core hurricane watchers.

I tend to agree with you, that ridge creates a different scenario than what we usually see with canes being lifted up into the Carolinas. Unless something occurs to create a weakness in the ridge it should hold it in a westerly motion directly into the Florida east coast somewhere, or perhaps even through the keys into the gulf.

:toast:

I'm in Boca...

I guess we'll have to keep a close eye on this one...

Heyo

http://www.weatherunderground.com Click on the Tropics link on the main page for projections, strike probabilities etc.

www.noaa.gov

use their little map graphic for offshore readings, poor design good data. Very accurate weather forcasting.

http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/tropical.html

They have some pretty good maps, and historical data for previous storms (dating back several years)

Winds now up to 65MPH. Hurricane warnings issued for the entire SC coastal area. Some strengthing expected before landfall late Sunday or early Monday.

Really, a minimal hurricane isn't too bad as long as you don't do anything stupid. Though the fact this is a slow mover means rain could really pile up in the Charleston area.

We're boarding up the windows --- I live on an island just outside Charleston. Gaston will be here in the morning.

It appears Frances is going to be a category 5 storm. That thing is monstous.

We haven't finished cleaning up or repairing the damage from Charley yet. The streets are lined with chainsaw-cut trees and the removal of them hasn't occured. If another hurricane hits this area, they will need many bulldozers to just open the roads. What a nightmare. We are already planning our evacuation.

Welcome to DU and stay safe, alteredstate.

Looks like the outer bands have already moved onshore.

5:00 a.m. Update

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 32.5 north...longitude 79.5 west or about 35
miles southeast of Charleston South Carolina.


Gaston is moving toward the north near 7 mph. A general northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the
next 24 hours. The center of Gaston is expected to make landfall
on the South Carolina coast near midday today.


Maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 70
mph...with higher gusts. Gaston is expected to become a hurricane
prior to making landfall.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200407.public.html

Best wishes to everyone in Gaston's path.

by the time it comes near the US. Could be another Andrew!

Tropical Storm Gaston Closes in on Carolina Coast
Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:48 PM ET

MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Gaston neared the South Carolina coast on Saturday and forecasters put the U.S. east coast under a storm alert from northern Florida to North Carolina.
Far out at sea, Hurricane Frances gained strength and continued on a path across the Atlantic that would take it north of the vulnerable islands of the eastern Caribbean early next week.

Gaston, carrying 65-mph winds, formed on Saturday in the Atlantic and could become a hurricane before reaching the South Carolina coast on Sunday, forecasters said.

At 11 p.m. EDT on Saturday, the center of Gaston was about 90 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, at latitude 31.7 north and longitude 79.2 west and was drifting slowly to the north-northwest, the National Hurricane Center said.

A hurricane warning to residents that storm conditions were likely within 24 hours was in effect along the South Carolina coast from the Savannah River to the Little River Inlet.

REUTERS

And please, please let everyone be out of harm's way.....