Newsweek poll--just out!

Bush 51 Kerry 42 and Nader 3. Seems identical to Time poll.

Poll taken Thursday and Friday. No link yet.

eom

NEW YORK — If I've heard it once, I've heard it a hundred times from discouraged Democrats and liberals as the Republican convention here wrapped up this week. Their shoulders hunched, their eyes at a droop, they lower their voice to a whisper hoping that if they don't say it too loud it may not come true: "I...I...I think Bush is going to win."

Clearly, they're watching too much TV. Too much of Arnold Schwarzenegger, Zell Miller, Dick Cheney and Rudy Giuliani. Too much of swift boat veterans and Fox News commentators.
snip----
My friends — and I include all Democrats, independents and recovering Republicans in this salutation — do not be afraid. Yes, the Bush Republicans huff and they puff, but they blow their own house down.
snip------
Kerry needs to trust that his victory is only going to happen by inspiring the natural base of the Democratic Party — blacks, working people, women, the poor and young people. Women and people of color make up 62% of this country. That's a big majority. Give them a reason to come out on Nov. 2.

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0903-02.htm

eom

and instead of waiting for bush* to bring it on -- we bring the fight to him

demand that the issues be addressed, demand real answers and not spin

The only demanders I am aware of are the media.

Without a dogged media, the repliers will be on their merry way.

LTTE will not get this done.

Forget your strategy of the muddled middle -- speak to the 50% who don't vote -- they are your natural constituency! Say bold things that your corporate sponsors won't like! Practice words like -- I was wrong about Iraq. The President duped us just like he duped the American people with lies and a fear-mongering. But as President I'm going to get us out of Iraq and spend those billions instead on re-building cities' infrastructure, making our schools the best in the world, providing health care accessibility to all, making social security secure, etc., etc. You can do it Kerry! You have to do it -- we can't afford to lose in November!

I couldn't believe it. Thurday night he was still tyring to capitalize on his VN days. He should come out a winner in this topic, but for unexplainable reasons, it's a losing issue for him. Why does he keep dragging it out?

Shut the fuck up about Viet Nam, and come out with some ball-grabbing issues!!!!!

We don't want to hear another fucking word about his heroism in an immoral war.

Save that shit for beery afternoons at the VFW Post, and start talking about creating jobs, dismantling the Patriot Act, restoring liberties, reversing environmental degradation, ending Bush cronyism, and GETTING THE FUCK OUT OF IRAQ.

How many times do we have to explain it to the DLC?

Save that shit for beery afternoons at the VFW Post, and start talking about creating jobs, dismantling the Patriot Act, restoring liberties, reversing environmental degradation, ending Bush cronyism, and GETTING THE FUCK OUT OF IRAQ.

Pretty hard to talk about getting out of Iraq when one is incapable of admitting error in voting for getting into Iraq in the first place. All the rationalizations about "authority" being somehow different from a blank check for war did not sell in Peoria. It certainly did not sell in Indiana where everyone knew that IWR was a prowar resolution.

Sixty days is a lifetime, so there is plenty of time left for Kerry to refocus his message, and perhaps to change it a bit, particularly in regards to the war.

unless there is some internal polling/strategy that shows this wins in key battleground states, which I doubt, he needs to move away from the past and appear to be the leader he says he is.

This dour/constipated expression he gets when defending himself against the smear-boaters is not good either. The other JFK (or hell, even Reagan) would treat this whole issue with just the right amount of a contemptuous grin, poke a little fun at the opposition, and forget about it.

There are plenty of minions out there to do the dirty work on this issue. And they should get twice as dirty, and I mean disgustingly so, as chimpco ever thought about.

We have a situation that is just like Viet Nam and we need someone who is capable of dealing with it in the Oval Office.

The only thing left for Kerry to do is to announce he will go to Iraq, and that he will bring the troops home ASAP.

Trying to justify his IWR vote has not worked. Few people believes the rationale Kerry gave for his vote!

Kerry isn't doing what Moore has told him to do: speak to the base. Give people a reason. Stand for more than Bush-lite. Oppose the war.

Kerry-the-Scourge-of-the-Mekong was a dopey proposition from the start, and now it's left us 9 points behind. Time to stop polishing the medals and saying you'd invade Iraq the right way. Time to start opposing the war, promising social programs, and hammering away on the specific reforms that will roll back Bushism. Time to stand for something.

Otherwise, it's over.

Kerry needs a Hubert Humphrey conversion and ditch his nuances and his confusing message about the war. Humphrey waited too long to break with the Johnson Administration on the war. Had he done it earlier, he would have been President, not Nixon!

Throw in the margin of error and it's 3 points.

they simply can't stand _Bush? I do. He's brought too much fear into our culture, and I think some people would rather keep a very low profile and appear to go along with the program when they are talking to strangers taking polls.

will be revealed on election day.

are thrilled to take every opportunity to profess the hatred.

:shrug: sixty days is a lifetime in politics.

... ever seen a football game where the winner was down by 21 points at the half?

I don't believe that poll are infallible or that polls are useless. There is no question that the convention gave Bush* a bounce. The only question is whether Kerry can bounce back.

He can, and I'm still pretty comfortable that he will. :)

Remember the Bills-Houston game?:kick:

This on CNN?

July 31 - Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush (49 percent to 42 percent) in a three-way race with independent Ralph Nader (3 percent), according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll The poll was taken over two nights, both before and after Kerry's acceptance speech. Respondents who were queried after Kerry's Thursday night speech gave the Democrat a ten-point lead over Bush. Three weeks ago, Kerry’s lead was three points.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5914894/
Bush has opened up a double-digit lead in a second poll released after the wrap-up of the Republican National Convention. The Newsweek poll showed Bush at 52 percent, Democrat John Kerry at 41 percent and independent Ralph Nader at 3 percent.

Kerry had a 49-42 edge while Nader had 3 percent in a Newsweek poll released right after the Democratic National Convention.

The poll of 1,008 registered voters was taken Thursday and Friday and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

flash and pan works more than substance in the US.

Scary and makes me wonder if the entire nation is brain dead due
to frankenfood.

If the poll includes only "likely voters," where are the other 4%????

JB

:shrug:

They forced the undecided to choose a candidate. They did not do that after the Dem Convention. Plus they did it the next day, the Dems they waited 5-7 days.

Also, they had a weird way of picking people to question. They would call up and ask for the youngest male, and if not available, then the oldest female. I think you might tend to get a more conservative voter that way.

One thing is apparent, Times and the rest of the corporate whores are trying to give Bush every possible advantage.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aWMeOSOk0kic&refer=top_world_news

No retreat people!

They want us to think we can't win so people will get discouraged and not go to the polls.

America loves a bigoted curmugeon. Especially when he claims to be from one political party, but speaks at the opposing parties convention and blasts his own.

(Kidding all)

If you thought that dumb MF Bush wouldn't get a bounce then we have a bigger problem as a Party. For a sitting President Bush should have a 20 point lead since we are at WAR. We still have 60 days to go. Think Debates.:think:

should have a way bigger lead. We knew this was gonna be one helluva fight, so let's roll up our sleeves and get to damn work! All this doom-and-gloom whining bs has got to stop!

There is no way I believe bush is leading by 9 points.
Has anyone here talked with a single person who has switched
from Kerry to bush in the last week? I have no come across one.

his operatives manipulate the media and the "media's polls".

the media is a willing partner of Rove's disinformation campaign.

A lot of people I know who don't like Bush said that they thought he did a good job, and the past day or two I have been getting really nervous about the election. I think Kerry can still win, but I have an uneasy feeling...last week I would have put my money on Kerry...now I am not so sure.

I should probably get more active with his campaign, but every candidate I have ever volunteered for has lost, so I am afraid of jinxing Kerry.

You mean to tell us you worked for * the first time around?

:evilgrin:

There is not the slightest doubt left, after that hateful and scary Nuremberg rally in Madison Square, that the evil that threatens America does not only come from Islamic fanatics over there but from religious terrorists of our own. This is much more of a cultural war from our perspective than from theirs.

the only poll that really matters is the election.

Let them make all they want of the big bounce. It will just look worse when the numbers go back down. Meanwhile, Dems just need to keep plugging along...

We are less than 60 days away! That's just the blink of an eye!

We should be block walking, phone banking and working our butts off!

To see this Texas Women holding that sign says it all. I'm getting proud to say I'm from Texas again.:D

there's plenty of time for those poll numbers to change. And it will make the other guys look like they're on a losing streak when the numbers start going back down for them.

as I can see) - maybe it'll lull the enemy into complacency. Let them think it's in the bag now, while we still have two months. I just hope the reverse isn't true, that people on our side get discouraged and say "cheney-it."

That said, I am NOT AT ALL happy about the polls. Nor about the thinking that shows up in them. What is with our fellow citizens?

enjoy sending your sons to war, because bush-cheney is not going to get mine.

Bush is the "War President" he should have a bigger lead then this. Y'all need to start thinking Debates. Kerry is going to kick Bush in Nov. Go out there and talk to people remind then that if Bush wins we as a Nation will continue to loss our friends. Bush plans to start wars with other Nations and that our children will be drafted. I was telling this stuff to one of my passengers on my city bus and by the time I knew it people were chanting Kerry Kerry Kerry. Go out and get the message out anyway you can.

And it looks as though Bush has lost 2% in one day. Not much of a bounce huh?

For those non-ostriches, check out the following link.

http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Not good news...........:shrug:

It says 52% would vote for Bush but in general 53% would like to se him reelected.

While I was pleased to see the Kerry campaign attack Bush and Cheney, I was surprised to see it. I don't think they would have gone so negative unless their own internal polling confirms these numbers.
The Bushies want anything but issues to drive this campaign. They can not win if anything but the 'war on terra' is the central focus, and, of course, John Kerry's late 60s and early 70s history.
Can chimpie win? Logic would say otherwise. He had done nothing to entitle him to a second term, but remember the words of H L Mencken:
"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American people."
On the blogs, I have read much complaining about Kerry, about how he is a passive candidate. I think Bob Shrum is Kerry's campaign manager, the same position he held for Gore's campaign. Some people thought Gore was a lead pipe cinch. If Shrum manages TWO consecutive losing presidential campaigns, I wonder if anyone inside the beltway will be able to detect a trend?

In addition to the high refusal rates for polls, don’t forget that they usually measure either likely voters or registered voters. Likely voters are those who voted previously. I think we will see what I call a Jesse Ventura effect: a lot of people who were not registered will be registered before the election (and here on the ground efforts will make a huge difference); a lot of people who were registered but didn’t bother to vote previously will vote in this election (again, on the ground effort will matter a lot).

Also, the F911 DVD will be out in October. The Sy Hersch book on the Abu Ghraib torture scandal will be out next week (possibly including evidence of the torture and rape of childrenand the Kitty Kelly book on the Bush Family Crime Empire will be out within the next few weeks.

The Valerie Plame scandal should lead to some indictments soon. That might not get anyone big, but it will bring the whole issue back into the news cycle, where the Kerry campaign can make use of it. Don’t forget, Kerry is saying stuff that needs to be said (and so is Edwards), but they just aren’t getting much air time, because of the Republican leanings of the mainstream media.

As for Kerry not doing enough before now: don’t forget, he can only spend $75 million in the general election following his acceptance of the nomination. His campaign has just started a $55 million ad buy in battleground states. He waited until Bush’s speech was over, and then came out swinging, dampening the overall impact of Bush’s speech and sucking up a lot of the news cycle air that would have gone to Bush’s speech and to punditwhores who would have been gushing over Bush’s speech. (Clinton’s heart problems have had a similar effect, pushing the Bush campaign stories down lower on the news priority list).

Since Kerry’s money is limited now, MoveOn and other independents have to really make an effort now—and so do we. This election will be won by the campaign that gets voters to the polls and that gets their side’s votes counted. We can help there. We should be registering voters, going door to door—and volunteering to take shifts at polling places (with cell phones an videocameras) to try to limit the damage Republican dirty tricks are bound to do.

I think the huge rock concert crowds do suggest the possibility at least of a Jesse Ventura factor in this election--don't you?

Christ.

I trust Zogby...

That's the composition of the sample. Way too many republicans for the poll to be worth much.

When the skew is righted, it's gonna make the "bounce" more of a transient phenom!:kick:

Okay, this is devastating news. No doubt about it. Not just because the same results were confirmed from more than one source, but because, with the issues this defined, it's unlikely that voters will suddenly change their minds because of anything that happens in the debates. This is not the kind of election where rational debates will make much difference, even if Bush collapses under the pressure of not being able to hold Big Dicky's hand.

What it does do, though, is to push this election to the brink much sooner than anyone would have expected. For months everyone was going under the assumption that Bush was likely on the way out. But it's now clear to any honest and intelligent observer that what's going on here approaches a dangerous hysteria of blind religious fanaticism and unending state of war. It's impossible not to take sides and I'm hoping to see some dramatic defections and October surprises that may shake up things much more than anyone thought.

Jesus, this is par for the course in any election, even at this stage.

Certainly not W. Okay he got what appears to be an absurd bounce out of the convention but remember the NO BOUNCE crowd forgot to mention the BOUNCE Kerry got. That didn't show up until a week after the Dem convention, we'll wait to see what next weeks polls show.

I'm old enough to see this as the most pivotal election since World War II. This election is a civil war at the ballot box. It's impossible to believe there is really anyone who is undecided left anymore. This isn't just a choice between two candidates but between two Americas and if anyone doesn't see what's going on with Bush they never will.

Look at the sample 38% Republican, 42% military households; only 14% non-white. Bad sampling is all this poll is.

That's what I'm doing at the workplace. I work with voters from across the country, w/many voting in FL. You would be surprised at the number who aren't registered to vote who don't like Bush. I'm helping to get them registered for absentee.

...the dems who didn't vote in the last election.

Kerry needs to forget about the middle; the undecided will follow the pack. Kerry could ENERGIZE the traditional Democrat base by acknowleging the LEFT. The LEFT put 1/2million people in the streets last week. Kerry needs to throw them a bone.....just acknowlege us and our fight. Give us (I'm traditional LEFT) something to fight for.
He doesn't even need to promise anything, just say that he hears our voices.
Al Gore would be president today if he had not ignored the LEFT.

I wish folks would stop believing this nonsense. It's so easy to lie with statistics. They are only doing this to prepare to steal the election. They want it to appear that it's a close race. Bush&Co already floated the idea about cancelling the election and they know that it will cause a revolution if they try. So, they will do what worked before... though I'm not ruling out the other possibility... by the way, where is Ashcroft these days?

This link points the press release about this Newsweek poll:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040904/nysa058_1.html

According to that report, here is the party affiliation of the respondents:
505 Thursday interviews (plus or minus 5)
503 Friday interviews (plus or minus 5)

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)

Republicans are very much over-sampled. This poll is bogus, as are most, IMHO.

Sorry for the ugly formatting, this is my first post.

And your point you brought out proves it. There are more registered Democrats in this country than Republicans, but phone polls tend to bring out more Republicans due to the time of the call. During the day you will tend towards retired people or towards stay at home moms. Both of these are small sub-groups which do not reflect the real national trend and tend to be pro-Puke.

And a big welcome to DU!

:hi:

And welcome to DU! :toast:

was 1000 people or 1200. I think they asked for the oldest male over age 18 and if the male household member was not available the oldest female over 18. I thought they asked if you were a registered voter or voted in the last election. I may be wrong about how they establish likely voters. These polls are really something else.

we need all the help we can get fighting the damned republicans and pessimistic democrats

:bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi::bounce::hi:

These are like some polls we had here showing Cruz Bustmante leading Arnold Schwarzenegger. In that case, they oversampled African-Americans. In this case, they oversampled Republicans. In both cases, I honestly think a political motive was involved.

Most will disagree, but I do believe that the media represented by Time, Newsweeek and the major networks want a close election. Bush leading right now plays into that. Bush was the underdog of sorts, with months of pounding (much deserved). I suspect that this "lead" merely sets up Bush for another comedown.

Improper sampling--not just 37% Republican, which is a statistical anomaly--but 374 +/- 6. The entire bounce could be from improper sampling, with 380 Republicans. This is total nonsense.

Look at these numbers from the sample they used:

283 Southern White (plus or minus 7)
559 Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
144 Non-White (plus or minus 8) under-represented

417 Military households (plus or minus 6) over-represented
578 Non-military households (plus or minus 5)

310 Republican states (plus or minus 6) over-represented
409 Swing states (plus or minus 6)
289 Democratic states (plus or minus 7)

541 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)over-represented
403 Kerry/Edward supporters (plus or minus 6)

With this sample, of course you will get those results. If anything, with 541 identified Bush/Cheney supporters, you would expect a higher percentage for Bush. Given the percentage of identified Bush/Cheney supporters, the poll could be viewed as actually favorable for Kerry.

There was no such overreaching to puff up Kerry. On the the contrary.
But a sampling starting out with a majority of Bush/Cheney supporters?
Why did they bother polling at all once they made that count? And were those who declared themselves Democrats honest? That is supposed to balance out, be figured in, but I also wonder how vulnerable or lax certain systems are to phone tapping interference and simpler forms of rigging. For me, the typical poll value can be summed in how women's magazines rate the "best dressed"- always picking the first lady or some celeb against all rational or aesthetic common sense. That is because they do not have to get serious nor invest personal risk in the gushing opinion.

Anyway, remember the soft factor, never hinted at much by the star gazers because it would seriously discredit the polling industry. ABB is hardcore. GOP discouragement with Bush to the point of staying home is so bad that he can only work to pass the "malaise" on to uneasy Dems. The "soft" -which is not the same as undecided- section is also made up of a larger majority of people really wanting to see Kerry as an alternative, but have not yet. That lean to the challenger potential is as strong or stronger this year than it was for the over-confident Pres. Carter. These realities do not change, whatever your nail-biting horror at befuddled, brainwashed masses. GOPers know who has blown their money. How thrilled are they to vote for more crippling Bush/Cheney flimflam?

Our main physical worries are the shock and awe of some terrible crisis plus unstemmed vote fraud. Those who would like to make Kerry their primary worry are merely playing to those cards. What disgusts me more is how insulting a skinny charade like the GOP hot air hate Convention can be while the real foul machinery is what they are leaning on. They wouldn't trust the people to swallow the BS indefinitely to even bother making much of an effort, much less substantial service to the nation to give them something real to cling to the King.

The GOP effort has indeed been a poor show with incredible pre-planned spin efforts. This is like the Stock Market opening with cheerleaders putting a rosy spin on things. The suckers or opportunists or the hopeful make it go up against all reason. Then down it sinks for the day. Months dawdle by sustaining a fantasy valued bubble that people come to crave. All they need, so long as they keep it close, is some final series of pump up signs of hope, then let the heavens fall come the Wednesday after the election. They also depend on the inability of
the challengers to derail this process.

Still, it is powerful delusion, illusion, a perilous sham that creates an underlying fear harder to face than terrorism. All of us must cut through that, starting with ourselves- and our nerves.

A phenomenon known as BAND-WAGON EFFECT:

The idea is to convince the undecideds that EVERYBODY'S voting for Bush. Therefore, if you want to be a "winner," you will vote for Bush, too.

I don't buy either the Time or the Newsweek poll -- propaganda, pure and simple.

Mind-games ... that's what Karl Rove is playing.

NO OTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE MADE ON THIS SUBJECT


Thank you

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Beltway and Texas Republicans
Against Bush-Cheney ’04, Inc.
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