Monday Rasmussen: Bush 48 Kerry 47 - Bounce Fades Further

Have their story(11%) and they're gonna stick to it.

Ohhhh...Fairness Doctrine...How I mourn thee...

:cry: :cry: :cry:

"commanding" lead * has and now Tweety shitting in is Huggies as we speak.

:eyes:

:kick:

like the recollection of the precise number of beers you had at an outdoor keg party.

;)

"Today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will provide commentary and analysis as to why our polls are currently showing a different result from the widely reported Time and Newsweek polls. At that time, we will also provide an update on who Americans think is winning the War on Terror along with other perspectives on the situation in Iraq."

ANybody have a link that shows Zogby #'s ?

Or go to Zogby's web site.

Here's something I wonder about; CNN is always touting the CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls. Why aren't they talking about that particular poll now?

quickly losing his bump. They like a horse race and by golly, they'll make one up if there ain't one.

to be behind

Yesterday, they had Bush 47.6% and Kerry 46.4% but it rounded to 48 to 46. Today, that 0.1% increase to 46.5 means it rounds to 48 to 47.

All of these numbers are within the margin of error, meaning the polls show a race just as tied after the convention as it was before. In other words, NO BOUNCE!

1) Rasmussen is a rightwing polling organization. If Bush can't keep a lead with them, the real numbers are worse.

2) The Friday night massacre announcement of a 17% Medicare premium increase hurt Bush, a lot. Bush was hoping to hide the news, but it was picked up by every single news source.

How can we stand 4 more years, more bad news everyday until election day

2 on Saturday, 7 today.

polls...it's like nobody keeps track of the polls over there?? What a joke--talk about misinformation. And that's what it is, deliberate misinformation.

I just caught the end of Bill Schneider with a woman from Cook and an unknown guy. The Cook woman at least focused on August getting Kerry off message...Schneider advised Kerry getting off Viet Nam...he and the guy were still talking Bush's lead.....What jackasses.

:kick: :kick:

Kewl.

probably only took samples from places where they KNEW would yield the bounce * and company woould like to brag about :eyes:

Rasmussen studied the poll and found Repugs were overwhelmingly over-represented in the poll.

A more realistic representation, using the same data, gave Bush a 3 point lead.

yesterday and even James Carville said Kerry's campaign is in trouble.
I have heard others, Pat Buchanan for one and he isn't any fan of Bush* practically saying that it all but over for Kerry. But except for the Time and Newsweek poll it's a dead heat. Russert yesterday was giving numbers like Bush is ahead 55% to 45% on one issue and 60% to 40% on another. I used to think that Tim Russert was a least fair has he gone to the dark side too?

They didn't know at the time that the poll's methodology was flawed.

Carville has been beating on Kerry for taking time off during the GOP convention instead of campaigning.

I have to agree with Carville on that, but Kerry is also known as a strong finisher.

September 6, 2004--We have been flooded with e-mails asking (in varying tones of politeness) why our poll results seem different from those released by Time and Newsweek.

There are two basic explanations, one involving our polling data and one involving the newsmagazines. For those who need to know the answer before the explanation, the bottom line is that the President is ahead by 4 to 5 points at this time. That's a significant improvement over the past few weeks, but not a double digit lead.

Our current poll (showing the President ahead by just over a point) includes a Saturday sample that is way out of synch with all the days before it and with the Sunday data that followed. In fact, Saturday's one-day sample showed a big day for Kerry while all the days surrounding it showed a decent lead for the President.

It seems likely that Saturday reflects a rogue sample (especially since it was over a holiday weekend). But, it remains in our 3-day rolling average for one more day (Tuesday's report). If we drop the Saturday sample from our data, Bush is currently ahead by about 4 percentage points in the Rasmussen Reports Tracking Poll.

That's still a smaller lead than shown by Time and Newsweek. Those polls appear to have the mirror image problem of a Los Angeles Times poll in June reportedly showing Kerry with a huge lead. That LA Times survey included too many Democrats in their sample. Today, it seems likely that Time and Newsweek included too many Republicans.

Time reports that Republicans will vote for Bush by an 89% to 9% margin; Democrats for Kerry by an 80% to 9% margin; and, unaffiliated voters for Bush 43% to 39%.

Four years ago, 35% of voters were Republicans, 39% were Democrats, and the rest were unaffiliated. If you apply those percentages to the Time internals, you find Bush up by about 3 percentage points. If you do the same with the Newsweek internal numbers, you find Bush with a six point lead. Those results are very close to the Rasmussen Reports data (excluding the Saturday sample).

All of this leads me to conclude that the President is currently ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points.

For those who say turnout might be different this time, I agree. It might be different. One of our great challenges between now and Election Day is to figure out how much (if at all) the turnout will change from historic norms. Partisans from both sides seem convinced that there are special circumstance that will increase turnout for their team. Others speculate that their may be a smaller number of unaffiliated voters since events of the past four years have caused people to take sides.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Poll%20Differences%20Sept%206.htm

sound good to you guys? Oh call Ailes and see if that is okay with him"

September 6, 2004--We have been flooded with e-mails asking (in varying tones of politeness) why our poll results seem different from those released by Time and Newsweek.

There are two basic explanations, one involving our polling data and one involving the newsmagazines. For those who need to know the answer before the explanation, the bottom line is that the President is ahead by 4 to 5 points at this time. That's a significant improvement over the past few weeks, but not a double digit lead.

Our current poll (showing the President ahead by just over a point) includes a Saturday sample that is way out of synch with all the days before it and with the Sunday data that followed. In fact, Saturday's one-day sample showed a big day for Kerry while all the days surrounding it showed a decent lead for the President.

It seems likely that Saturday reflects a rogue sample (especially since it was over a holiday weekend). But, it remains in our 3-day rolling average for one more day (Tuesday's report). If we drop the Saturday sample from our data, Bush is currently ahead by about 4 percentage points in the Rasmussen Reports Tracking Poll.

That's still a smaller lead than shown by Time and Newsweek. Those polls appear to have the mirror image problem of a Los Angeles Times poll in June reportedly showing Kerry with a huge lead. That LA Times survey included too many Democrats in their sample. Today, it seems likely that Time and Newsweek included too many Republicans.

Time reports that Republicans will vote for Bush by an 89% to 9% margin; Democrats for Kerry by an 80% to 9% margin; and, unaffiliated voters for Bush 43% to 39%.

Four years ago, 35% of voters were Republicans, 39% were Democrats, and the rest were unaffiliated. If you apply those percentages to the Time internals, you find Bush up by about 3 percentage points. If you do the same with the Newsweek internal numbers, you find Bush with a six point lead. Those results are very close to the Rasmussen Reports data (excluding the Saturday sample).

All of this leads me to conclude that the President is currently ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points.

For those who say turnout might be different this time, I agree. It might be different. One of our great challenges between now and Election Day is to figure out how much (if at all) the turnout will change from historic norms. Partisans from both sides seem convinced that there are special circumstance that will increase turnout for their team. Others speculate that their may be a smaller number of unaffiliated voters since events of the past four years have caused people to take sides.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Poll%20Differences%20Sept%206.htm

Old Razzy points out that Saturday, which showed a strong Kerry surge, is probably an outlier, so the number tomorrow should be stronger for Bush since it's a three-day rolling average. Thus, the Ras. number to watch is tomorrow's. If it snaps back to 49-45 (approx.) for Bush, then his analysis is prob. correct and we are looking at a 4-5 point bounce here.

On the other hand, over the last three years Shrub's numbers have consistently "bounced" and then fallen to lower levels than where they began their bounces in response to particular events or good news. It's like a ball bouncing to a stop. Each bounce has a bit less energy than the one before. Each surge is followed by a greater disappointment.

This is why Rove needs an October surprise, either a major smear against Kerry that sucks up the media oxygen a la "Swift Boats," or a proactive strike using the power of incumbency, such as getting Osama (or telling us they have just gotten him), or perhaps a passing away of a senior member of the * clan (you get my drift -- could happen), or else some kind of "surprise" terrorist event.

Lord, I'd put nothing past these people. Gotta hope whatever they do is transparent in its arrogance.

Loving how Clinton's surgery and Frances, however, have steamrolled post-convention coverage of the thugs. I don't see the conventional whore media reading -- that this has taken away from Kerry's ability to change the tone of the campaign.

As always, events are in the saddle.

RCM

Did you get the memo?