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It pretty much still stands up IMO. I wrote this for a UK media board posting but I think I put it on DU somewhere.
-------------------------- written June 2 2003 (two days after)
Notes:
* It says it is based on UN/RES/1397, but that resolution (and 242/338) say *nothing* about Palestinian rights beyond a "vision". This isn't going to be full withdrawal, in return for full peace. Therefore, it's going to be a Bantustan. Plus, 1397 says that the UN-SC "Demands immediate cessation" of destruction of homes etc. Like that has a prayer.
* It says it is partly based on the Saudi initiative (pick one, 1982, 1985, 2002. They probably mean the latter). But that initiative is at odds with 242/338 because it demands a full withdrawal (the original US interpretation of 242, now defunct), which Israel has always rejected. Also, it can't be part-based on Oslo "agreements previously reached by the parties), because also says ONLY 242/338 are relevant. So, there is internal contradiction within about two paragraphs.
* "The parties" are defined as Israel and the Palestinians. Missing out a crucial party to the conflict: the US. Although personally, I never expected to see that much honesty anyway.
* The Palestinians have to immediately halt "violence" (i.e. the Intifada) and in return they get help to "normalise Palestinian life". Hence, the end of the 2nd Intifada for a meaningless phrase (since Occupation isn't 'normal', and no demands for cessation of "violence" are put on Israel). I suspect the roadmap will fail just on this point alone.
* Israel doesn't have to withdraw back to the Sept 2000 IDF positions UNTIL there is "progress" on "security performance" and "co-operation". Hence, meaningless. This paragraph dissolves and violates a Security Council resolution (1435, *demanding* "the expeditious withdrawal of the Israeli occupying forces from Palestinian cities").
* Israel has to "freeze" settlement activity (including "natural growth"). A good thing, and presumably this is supposed to be immediate, but since this paragraph comes after the "security co-operation" nonsense, you can bet your life it will be made dependent on that. i.e. put off forever, until eventually the Palestinians restart the Intifada or have a civil war. Also, it should really be phrased: "the US must stop paying Israel to establish illegal settlements", because that is exactly what is happening. Get ready to see Sharon brazenly issue some house tenders in some strategic location, and watch the U.S. press ignore it and circlejerk about putting the plan "on track", or some other idiotic metaphor.
* At the "outset" of Phase I, all "official Israeli institutions" have to "end incitement" against the Palestinians. That would mean Sharon kicking out "transfer" advocates from his coalition government and/or stopping them from promoting "transfer". This point will probably be ignored, just like all the "transfer" signs plastered on Israeli traffic lights are right now.
* Palestinians have to declare an "unconditional" ceasefire, Israel doesn't. The GOI only has to "call" for an immediate end to "violence against Palestinians". Since it is the GOI doing most the violence, this point is probably supposed to be a joke.
* There aren't going to be an UN monitors on the ground. Before "Phase I" is done, "the Quartet" will only use "existing mechanisms and on-the-ground resources" to "begin informal monitoring" on progress. It's a "performance-driven" plan, but the performance won't be officially monitored. O-kay. Only afterwards (at some unspecified date) will "the Quartet" consult with "the parties on establishment of a formal monitoring mechanism and its implementation". So no monitoring will be *demanded*. Therefore, it won't happen, just like the Jenin investigation didn't happen.
* The "outside oversight board" for the "re-training" of the Palestinian security forces consists solely of the US, Egypt and Jordan. So essentially it'll be the training of a bunch of thugs to keep the Palestinians quiet.
* The Arab states have to cut-off "all public and private funding" and "all other forms of support" for groups "supporting and engaging in violence and terror". The US, on the other hand, has to continue to pay Israel to kick the Palestinians in the face. Pro-Zionist Palestinian-rejectionist groups in the US can continue to ship fistfuls of cash to Israeli settlers, cos that ain't a problem either. Same goes for US members of Congress who reject the Palestinians right to self-determination (House Majority Leader Dick Armey, to name one). He can vote on as many bills as he wants giving massive aid to the IDF, even as it engages in "violence" and "terror". I presume that "violence" and "terror" will be defined by the US and Israel, therefore they can demand funds be cut from any grouping they want (i.e. their opponents).
* The Palestinians have to "perform" on judicial, administrative, and economic "benchmarks", as defined by the International Task Force on Palestinian Reform. Which, when deciding how to allocate funds to the Palestinians, regularly "consults" with, you've guessed it, "the Israeli government".
* The Palestinians are supposed to hold "free, open, and fair elections", while under military occupation. How they'll achieve this marvel is not specified, apart from the GOI "facilitating" it. I'm sure a similar offer on behalf of Hizbollah to conquer Israel, occupy its cities, settle in its towns and *then* "facilitate", "free, open and fair (Israeli) elections" wouldn't be similarly welcomed. Hey, Hizbollah was did win seats in an election!
* The GOI only has to dismantle ("immediately" - that is, at the "outset" of Phase I) settlement "outposts" erected since March 2001. I think the "outpost" part is intentional, since it means Israel is only going to dismantle the ones which it alone defines. Those will be isolated, difficult to patrol etc, neither Ma’ale Adummim nor the ones in the Jordan valley.
* Phase II is where it starts to get really amusing. An "independent Palestinian state" with "provisional borders" and "attributes of sovereignty" may be "created". Okay, a state can't have provisional borders, it either has borders or it doesn't, so that can't happen. But luckily, even if it did, this will only be a "way station" to a permanent status agreement. A way station (eh?) which will likely become the new status-quo: the Intifada is over, the US-run security forces are retrained, Arafat is probably gone and the occupation remains. I guess this will be the point at which Israel says "ta very much" and on some pretext (aided by the US media), rejects the rest of the roadmap.
* Phase III is basically double-speak which probably means the opposite of what it says, especially as it turns out that after all this, THEN the talking starts on Jerusalem (the East of which isn't occupied according to the roadmap, nor U.S. votes at the UN), settlements (which will be dependent on "provisional borders"), refugees (UN/RES/194 is by omission declared bunk) and borders (which won't be anywhere near the Green Line, again by virtue of omission).
To sum up, I count five demands made of Israel, only 3 of which are specific:
1. Withdrawal to Sept 28 2000 positions. 2. Freeze of settlement activity. 3. A statement supporting a Palestinian state.
Of which only 1 of those is unconditional: the last one. So, you can put the other two in the idiot box.
The roadmap = End of the 2nd Intifada in return for a statement from Sharon. Excellent!
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Compare the above to the (nearly anti-semitic) BBC saying Bush's "vision" was "breaktakingly ambitious!" :eyes:
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