New Battleground Poll out: All 50 States, American Reseach Group

How close is the race for president?

George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.

Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.

Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.

Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.

Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.

Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.

Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.

Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.


http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Things looking up for Kerry. No way Bush wants the race this close with only 41 days left.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the "silent majority" votes in record numbers this year.

...and it's my understanding that people using cellphones as their only phone aren't being polled either.

Plus, using "likely voters" based on those that voted in previous elections is just not going to work in this election.

...are what sank Gallup's 2000 polls. They cover the narrowest spectrum of voters. Almost always a small majority of those "likely voters" are RW zealots who vote in every election. They completely miss the voters who are motivated by special circumstances such as, oh...maybe...

THE CURRENT pRESIDENT IS A FUCKWIT?

The press will say "Kerry is mean!" and "Bush* tries harder!" Mediawhores will critique clothes, posture, facial hair etc, but will they critque the message? Despite it all, I believe Kerry will win.

younger population which is more kerry

and it explains why the Bush campaign is apparently pulling out of Michigan to concentrate elsewhere. It is crunch time and Kerry is positioned well to take the lead and win the election. Bush has to move more votes in hostile territory than Kerry does. Tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia? You might as well claim those for Kerry now, because that's the way they are going. The only "small lead state that Kerry really has to worry about is Florida. As I see it, Bush has to worry about all of his "small lead" states.

"No way Bush wants the race this close with only 41 days left."

That's precisely what he wants. To create the mindset that the race will be close so that it can be Diebolded somewhere like Ohio or Pennsylvania or Florida again. That and demoralizing every Democrat they can by November is their only hope of avoiding a Kerry landslide.
I'll say this everyday from now to the election. Chimpy shot his wad in '00. He has not drawn new voters into his ranks and has pissed off many repugs since taking office.

DK=don't know

since the questions were Bush, Nader, Kerry or Someone else

:D

with extended recounts this year. Maybe even 5 or 6 or more. We may not know the real winner until January. There will be harsh and vicious accusations of fraud from the GOP and RW in general where Kerry wins a battle ground state. We will be filing lawsuits right and left over voter intimidation of minorities including Indians in S Dakota. It will not be pretty this year. 2000 will look like a smooth election. In the end, the GOP will play a game of "run out the clock" like they did in 2000 and just may win because of it. Start being prepared for what to do next if they steal this election.

Don't think it will be over Nov 2 just because that's election day.

I just can't see Kerry conceding like Gore did if something similar occurs like it did in Florida. The stakes are simply waaaay too high.

He's a badass that way.

;)

will be a massive, well-funded and organized impeachment campaign. But that's a topic for another thread, I think.

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. --That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

I think that was written in Times New Plume.

:wow:

That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government

In a way - this is why I haven't been paying much attention to the polls. Have thought for months that Kerry can do his best and the Dems can do their most to GOTV - but that it will all boil down to post election day contests - and will be ugly and messy. And I wonder how messy it could get - Massive demonstrations and civil unrest? - Could these be possible? Think of the size of the demonstrations in NYC at the Republican Nat. Convention but with the election results at stake.

I really wonder about the outcome of all of this. Will we (the USA), when it's all said and done, still be viewed by the world community as a democracy?

They won't make that mistake again.
They'll steal enough votes to take it outside the legal margin for recounts.
We have to get some state laws changed NOW!

Wolf Blitzer will have a hard time choking this down since he has been beeming while reporting Bush's 14 point lead via Gallup.

Between this poll and the Zogby battlegorund poll, things are not looking good for Bush.

POOF!: There goes the post-covention bounce for Bush :nuke:

Here's my rationale... The big babyboom years were 83-89 (aprrox) and 85 was a BIG year which means they are lots of 18yrs old of VERY angry Dems who are getting their kids to vote... I'm one of them and I have many friends who are all doing the same thing...

the poll assumes an honest election -

If there is ANY danger in junior losing Florida, "other factors" will kick in

Agree on the "other factors" - no way will Jeb let Kerry "win" Fla.

I also think we need to look at which states have Republican or Democratic governors for clues as to how this whole thing will pan out.

I can hear the freepers howling now!

The iowa numbers are from 10 days ago. We need to hold strong their of course (basically our only true midwest state from the "Bread Basket") but we should definitely focus on Florida and Penn. I saw some video from Kerry's campaign stop last night in Orlando. The people were more excited about him than T-Mac during the b-ball season last year!! It was PACKED!

I have been registering hundreds of voters.
I am seeing big burly men say they hate Bush.
I saw a handsome Hispanic LT. in full uniform sign up to register as a Democrat. He said he wanted to live to see his two children grow up.
Two die hard Republican men friends are saying that they will NOT vote for Bush this time.
I am just not sure that that 51% is solid.

I also want to have more faith in the Men of America than that percentage.

I love men and in my opinion, a REAL man will vote for Kerry.
Those that call others "girlie men" should join AAArnold the Groper and vote for Bush.

That said, I do believe that it is harder to change a man's mind than a woman.s mind.

Let's work like hell to get every woman to the polls.

REAL Men Vote For Kerry.

Now that's a bumper-sticker I'd like to see! :thumbsup:

I love that idea!

Open your e-business and make a killing. Only 6 weeks left! :bounce:

I loved reading those stories. (OK I wish nobody hated anybody, but still....)
Made my morning. Thanks.

as democrats -- but I'm in California where the political climate is much more pro-democratic. I recently visited North Carolina and the climate there was decidedly more macho and pro-Chimp.

Bush 253 votes
Kerry 269 votes
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I thank them for weighting their numbers by state because that gives a very accurate picture.

Along with a couple hundred other Chicago dems. Kerry has a much better organization than Gore ever did. If any Chicago area DU types want to ride the bus, here is the contact.

nikerrytravelers@yahoo.com

RSVP there and show up at 57 W. Grand (near Clark) at 9 a.m. on Saturdays. We get home at about 8. Then we drink beer.

made! :hi:

reason to believe this one but not others.

It's nice, but it's a "weighted" poll of "likely voters".
That doesn't mean it's bad, but it does have a lot of
fudge factors. The important poll is on Nov. 2nd.

Why the whore media calls it a battleground state is beyond me