Hurricane Ivan Update 5:00 EST 9/12/04 with Photos

you guys were talking about?

When strong hurricanes show a double eye-walled structure, they are often in the process of undergoing a "eye wall replacement cycle" where a new eye wall develops and replaces an existing one. The cycle begins with a concentrated ring of convection that develops outside the eye wall. The ring of convection then propagates inward leading to a double-eye. The inner eye wall eventually dissipates while the outer intensifies and moves inward. The double-eye-walled structure usually marks the end of an episode of intensification and may last for a day or two.

the words that come to mind are terrifyingly beautiful.

Thanks for posting.

"terrifyingly beautiful".........

... :scared:

Been moving in a slightly more westerly path than Charley, so I wonder if it'll lay in the open Gulf and pick up steam.

Jeez laweez, we are in for some kind of weather.

Most of the forecasts predict the path either right over or slightly west of where I live in the NC mountains. We're already without clean water and covered in stinky mud. I hope this one misses us, but it doesn't look good.

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Cuba and the Yucatan.. then go straight north... I thin it will miss Florida altogether.. Look out Louisiana...

Any place it ends up is in deep doo doo :(

Unfortunately I live near New Orleans. If this thing doesn't make its famous turn by tomorrow morning, I will be cancelling a trip to north Mississippi in case I have to throw what I can save in my van and run for my life Tuesday morning.

If Ivan comes ashore at Cat 3 or higher and goes over Atlanta it is likely to cause a lot of damage there. Also, as Ivan makes its way north it will dump a lot of rain on western North Carolina (which is still recovering from terrible flooding brought by Frances), Virginia, and West Virginia.

West Virginia is particularly vulnerable because the evil shrub's changes in mining regulations have allowed the tops of mountains to be removed. Heavy rains bring mudslides down on towns, burying people and their homes under tons of clay and debris.

Shrub doesn't cause the hurricanes, but his economic and environmental policies have certainly made a lot more people vulnerable to hurricane damage.

doesn't pay you a visit.

Thanks for all the updates.

Better to buy stuff early than not be able to find it. Get plywood and something to cut it, along with bottled water and canned food that you don't need to heat. Power can be down for days.

Also get a chainsaw and remove any tree limbs that are clearly likely to fly into your house and get rid of anything loose and lighter than an old fridge in your front yard. The car on blocks can stay. :evilgrin:

Definately get supplies like non perishable food.
Buy small bottles of water instead of or in addition to gallon jugs. Freeze the small bottles. If your power goes out, you will have ice packs to keep other stuff cold & when they melt, drinking water. Assume you are on a boil water alert unless you hear otherwise - use your bottled water to brush your teeth. Have anti-bacterial hand gel.

Buy stuff like beef jerkey and Kraft Easy Cheese. Crackers. If you buy bread, freeze it. If you lose power the humidity will cause the bread to go moldy in three days, freezing it gives it a little longer. Junk food - the crap that doesn't go bad helps with the stress. If you buy granola or breakfast bars, check the protein content to see if it is really nourishment or just more junk.

Get cash and gas. I've decided during Hurricane Season to not let my car get below half a tank.

I'm in Orlando and the eye of Charley hit my side of town, I don't know anyone around here who lost windows and we had 90 mph winds. Remember Charley had been a Category 4, got to us after being on land maybe 6 hours. If you live closer to the southwest coast, you may want to board up your windows, but if you do it wrong you can ruin the stucco.

If you have a place to store plywood, it can't hurt to have it. I always keep plenty of canned goods on hand and enough bottled water water to last a week. Keep track of when you buy the stuff, and use it within a year so it won't taste like crap.

We have a gas grill, and I always have a full spare tank. Flashlights and fresh batteries are safer than candles; but I still use candles if there's a power out...just don't leave them unattended.

In the winter we keep plenty of firewood handy. It's probably best not to have less than 1/2 a tank of gas in your car in any season.

We live in the Mid-Atlantic region, where hurricanes are infrequent, but not unheard of. Strong summer and winter storms can wreak havoc with the power here. And after last year's power grid fiasco, it just makes sense to be ready to deal with whatever may come along.

southeast Alabama on the Georgia border. Just cleaned up the mess from the one last week, and this one looks much worse.

...I'm getting a bit worried too.

*waves across the state line* Hey, neighbor. Frances was nerve-wracking, but Ivan is downright terrifying. Here's hoping it's just another yard cleanup after this one, but it's looking scarier than that. Gulp. My heart goes out to the people who get a direct hit from this monster.

the cloud cover that looks like it is breaking off from Ivan? Or is Ivan sucking it in?

Carolina coast last night. Here's copy and links, I haven't heard anymore so I don't know? I'm worried it may decide to take out New Orleans, of course I'm worried for everyone in this storm's path. It's just in the last couple of years I heard an interview with someone working in New Orleans for the government and the warnings they were trying to make people listen to about what would happen if a really severe hurricane like this one were to hit New Orleans. Much of the French Quarter will be almost underwater because of the degradation of the marshes,the wetlands and trees (ie, the swamps), to the south that are no longer there, the Mississipi Delta, that typically in the past have partly shielded New Orleans.

This has been the most awful hurricane season I've ever seen, and I did stay in Houston during Alecia in '83, the eye passed right over my abode. I loved storms and I thought it would be "fun" to go through one. Never ever in my life again would I make the decision and I love storms. If I were any where near where this is going to land I'd be out of there, period. I worry for all those who have no where to go or decide to stay at there home thinking they can ride it out or want don't want to leave their beloved pets behind because no shelter will take them. It's criminal to do that to people. Pets become family members, especially to those that are elderly and or alone.

It's a mess.

From thread I posted last night.

Post from another site I frequent:

Urgent News Flash – Large M-Class Flare Has Just Occurred;
New Tropical Storm Forming

Mitch Battros
Producer – Earth Changes TV
September 12, 2004 12:38 AM EDT

ECTV Urgent News Flash – Large M-Class Flare Has Just Occurred; New Tropical Storm Forming

by Mitch Battros - ECTV Within the last hour a large M7-Class flare has occurred.
( http://sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html )
I expect to see the Kp Index shoot up to 6 or 7 within hours. I would suggest those living in the lower east coast from Florida to North Carolina to monitor their local news and weather by the hour.

Equation:Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption (mitch battros)

"This Just In… I have received word from a credible source that a “new” tropical storm is being formed at this very moment a few hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This news has now been verified by NOAA
http://www.earthchangestv.com/emailer/admin/.%20http:/w...

Satellite video here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir2-loop....

I have been told this newly forming storm will be dragged by ‘Ivan’. Its course will not be known for several hours. It has a preliminary course towards North Carolina, but a cone of impact can range from North Florida to Massachusetts. Ivan is having a major effect both in its early formation and in its ultimate destination. Folks, this could get nasty very quickly. Stay tuned for further advisement and news updates."

http://www.earthchangestv.com

http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=554...

DU thread I posted:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=2342612&mesg_id=2342612

that shelters won't take ANYONE with a pet? what if they are crated?

There are now shelters which take pets as well as "special needs" shelters. The thing is, shelters are supposed to be a last resort. Shelters are for people whos can't stay with family or friends or in a hotel.

There are many reasons people still don't go to shelters. Sometimes it is because they are stubborn or scared (not necessarily logical) or feel the need to protect their home. Sometimes they just don't want to be trapped in an uncomfortable situation with strangers. Sometimes they don't believe the warnings. As we have developed more and more of our coastal land, we are having to evacuate days in advance. Then the storm doesn't hit and people think the Emergency Management has been crying wolf.

have no transportation. Also, because they do not know when they will be allowed to return - most everyone I know has a friend or relative or were themselves prevented from returning to their home because of restricted access after the storm.

They are fucking amazing. Could make a great poster with that one.

I'd love to see that picture in motion!

That heat in the gulf could re-strengthen Ivan!

:scared:

We still don't have clean water and many businesses are closed. The hospital I work for can't do elective surgeries because of low water pressure and we have to flush the toilets with pots of water.

One more storm like the last one and we'll be back in the Stone Age.

I heard that a direct hit on New Orleans from a hurricane of this strength could completely flood and destroy most of New Orleans... I hope this doesn't happen. I still haven't been to Mardi Gras!

the city could be put underwater permanently. The pumping system would be rendered totally useless. The spillway system would be of absolutely no help. The only way to get rid of the water would be to bring smaller pumps to the bowl, or to wait for the water to hopefully evaporate (which could take months - or years).

I just saw on CNN that they moved the prediction cone once again a bit to the west. Now New Orleans is firmly within the western edge of the cone.. no more of that borderline in/out-of-the-cone-business. And it still hasn't begun that turn north yet.

My parents and sister live in New Orleans. I've talked to them on the phone tonight, telling them to GET OUT by Tuesday morning if it aims anywhere near them. God, let it come to me here in Texas.. just not them. Not New Orleans.

New Orleans. Special affection for all of Louisiana. I lived there a couple of years and I love all the ancient trees, the history, the culture and the people. Louisiana is a country within a country.

I hope it doesn't see one again

We had a vodou ceremony to keep it away... I hope it works.

I hope you did and did it correctly. I lit a candle and I think it will hit between Alabama and Mississippi. We'll get wind and rain, but I don't think it will be a direct hit.

Millions of people would have to evacuate or be killed by the storm surge that would cover much of Galveston and reach as far in as the Clear Lake region due to the waterway. The surge would be such that it would be simply suicide for anyone not in something like Galveston's San Luis condo resort to ride it out.

Agreed? This is going to be a disaster short of a miracle, devine intervention, or our (tinfoil time), "weather manipulators".

or a cat 5 of just about any speed, directly at or near (East) N.O. could wipe it off the face of the Earth. For the worst to happen a strike from the South to North, with it passing just East of the City.

Ivan definetly qualifies as one of those storms.

A strong, slow Cat *3*, or ANY Cat 4 or Cat 5 will overwhelm the levy system and put New Orleans underwater, regardless of the additional wind damage it will do to most of those old buildings. This is not just storm surge, it will essentially fill up the bathtub that is the Big Easy, and this would take months to clean up and cost billions, in addition to everything that would be destroyed.

But either way, this storm fits both our situations, its simply a matter where it hits... The stonger it is, the less a direct hit it will need to be.

Of course, everyone should feel concern for people in Cuba facing this storm. Their housing is very, very poor and not many there are going to be able to weather this well. If there is a silver lining in this star, it is that some may actually end up with a decent place to live after rebuilding has been completed.

But every 6-hr update puts the storm passing 30 miles west of me, just like Frances.

New Orleans is in real trouble. I wish it would just peter out in the open ocean. But that is real unlikely to happen.

- David