NBC poll: Bush holds narrow lead

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6073871/

Less than six weeks before Election Day, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows President Bush with a lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry — but it's within the margin of error, and it's much smaller than some other recent post-GOP convention polls indicate.

Still, the survey has some troubling numbers for Kerry as he tries to close Bush's narrow lead: Female voters aren't flocking to the Massachusetts senator as they have to past Democratic candidates, and a solid majority of overall voters believes he doesn't have a message, or doesn't know what he would do if elected.

The poll, conducted by Hart/McInturff, shows Bush receiving support from 48 percent of registered voters, Kerry getting 45 percent, and Nader getting 2 percent. Among likely voters (defined as those expressing high interest in the November election, who represent 78 percent of the survey), Bush holds a four-point lead over Kerry, 50 percent to 46 percent.

<snip>

But Bush has some troubling signs of his own. Even though the president has a slight lead in this poll, when voters were asked what they would want in a second term for Bush, 58 percent say they want major changes, compared with only 9 percent who say they want his second term to look a lot like his first term. "Look, he has to prove that he will pivot" in a second term, said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. Yet McInturff, the GOP pollster, added that this is something Bush can accomplish at the upcoming debates.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x857791

:-)

voters will be watching the debates. Kerry's message will be very clear. And the awol prick won't have cheney's hand to hold or rove's lies to help him.

It's one on one vs. Kerry. The chimp will be wearing a diaper for safety.

and the Iraqis are throwing flowers at soldiers.

The scandal of this election season is how ridiculous the polling has been.

You know what to do.

The spin on these polls is incredible. When Kerry leads they call it a tie. When Bush leads they say the election is over. Media lies.

It has to be troubling for Bush that he's in a statistical dead heat against a candidate without a message, and that much of his support is coming from women who are historically inclined to vote Democratic.

1. Only 9% of people say that Bush should stay the course from what he's done first term if he's re-elected.
2. 59% of people say they know what Bush stands for.

So can we put these two together to say that people know what Bush is about and don't like it??

Damn, all Kerry has to do is let the people know who he is and what he stands for and we should be in great shape...

The numbers are finally falling back to their natural level. Gallup's cleverly biased 35 pt (or something like that) lead is clearly gone. The race now stands at where it was just before the Repuke convention began.

As long as Kerry continues to hammer away like he did 2 days ago, he will continue to crawl up. I believe Kerry has taken the final position on Iraq, which deep within was his position all along though he may have been uneasy articulating it, and now he should just focus on it like a laser beam.

Just you wait and see, there's no way he'll win unless he steals this election.

"Likely Voters" picked from Zip Codes that have a median income of $145,000+

And all he can pull is 50%?

The ONLY poll that matters, people, is the one they're taking on November 2nd, and they'll be polling POOR neighbourhoods as well as gated communities that day!

I guess that headline would make too much sense

Kerry debates *, it will be the end. Bush-speak is no match for Kerry's more sophisticated logic.

all over for Kerry. Fineman said Kerry had given up on Ohio and was barely holding on in PA. Then they have this poll on NBC this evening. These polls are meaningless, tomorrow there will probably be one showing Bush up 15 points.

In fact most of the poll was conducted before Kerry's speech in NY. So go ahead and subtract a point or two from chimpy and add a point to Kerry.

They're tied.

hey, i'm Finn, i can say that.