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Kerry Picks Up Support in Ohio - Poll

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NNN0LHI

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Wed Sep-29-04 09:19 PM
Original message

Kerry Picks Up Support in Ohio - Poll

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040930/pl_nm/campaign_poll_ohio_dc&cid=615&ncid=2043

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) held an edge over Democratic nominee John Kerry (news - web sites) in the battleground state of Ohio with a two-point-lead in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of likely voters released on Wednesday.

That compared with an eight-point lead for Bush in the poll early this September.

The survey of likely voters showed 49 percent would vote for Bush and 47 percent for Kerry. A similar poll conducted from Sept. 4-7 showed Bush with 52 percent compared to Kerry with 44 percent.

However, among registered voters Kerry held a three-point lead over Bush with 49 percent support compared to 46 percent backing the president. In the poll published on Sept. 8, Bush lead Kerry by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent.

more

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MGKrebs

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Wed Sep-29-04 09:21 PM
Response to Original message

1. Gallup poll?

Add about 6 points for Kerry!

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0007

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Wed Sep-29-04 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #1

6. It is called the fudge factor and it is around 7.5% in junior's favor

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Rose Siding

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Wed Sep-29-04 09:25 PM
Response to Original message

2. We HAVE to get the registered voters to VOTE

GEEZE, what do these people say in the poll to *not* be deemed "likely"?????

"Oh, I guess maybe I'll vote that day unless I get a better offer"

"It just depends on if I've taken my meds or not....sigh"

"Nov 2? Is that before or after my scheduled LOBOTOMY?"!!!!!

My husband was polled for a local candidate and when they asked him if he was likely to vote, he said "yeah. unless I get hit by a bus"

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bain_sidhe

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Wed Sep-29-04 09:31 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. "what do these people say ... to *not* be deemed "likely"?"

"Oh, I guess maybe I'll vote that day unless I get a better offer"

"It just depends on if I've taken my meds or not....sigh"

"Nov 2? Is that before or after my scheduled LOBOTOMY?"!!!!!

No, nothing so extreme. All they have to say to be deemed "not likely" to vote is:

"I would vote for John Kerry."

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Ravenseye

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Wed Sep-29-04 11:14 PM
Response to Reply #3

14. No

It's more like...

Have you voted every year since 1992?

If Yes - Likely Voter

If No - Unlikely Voter

Skip a year, miss an election, be too young to have voted then, and you're not likely to vote. It's total BS.

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Mechatanketra

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Thu Sep-30-04 12:34 AM
Response to Reply #14

16. Indeed. And Gallup should know better.

Their own results -- which often show Kerry doing better among registered voters than he is among "likely" voters -- ought to be evidence of a problem in their process.

Consider for a moment: second-term elections are referendums on the performance of the incumbent. If someone isn't satisfied with the performance of the incumbent -- to the degree that they'd be willing to vote for the other guy -- is it likely they're going to stay at home, the action of one who doesn't see themselves as having a stake in the results either way?

Doesn't wash.

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fearnobush

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Wed Sep-29-04 09:31 PM
Response to Original message

4. If Kerry just holds his own during the Chimp fest debate, Ohio will

deliver it's electoral votes John Kerry. Now having them counted is a different story. All voting places must have observer's to collect the names and voter ID's of all those potential new voters who are likely to be turned away come Nov 2nd.

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Zorra

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Wed Sep-29-04 09:33 PM
Response to Original message

5. Gallup? Bet they hunted all day to find enough "likely" voters so they

could somehow make Bu$h look better.

"However, among registered voters Kerry held a three-point lead over Bush with 49 percent support compared to 46 percent backing the president. In the poll published on Sept. 8, Bush lead Kerry by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent."

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Bush was AWOL

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Wed Sep-29-04 09:37 PM
Response to Original message

7. I got relatives in Stark County and Franklin County

Edited on Wed Sep-29-04 09:38 PM by Bush was AWOL

All of which are Democrats, living in areas that last voted Democrat in 64 and they say they've never seen support for a Democrat like they have this year for Kerry/Edwards.

I see the same thing this year, of course, but I've only been able to vote for 5 years.

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speedoo

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Wed Sep-29-04 09:49 PM
Response to Original message

8. Seems like Ohio is swinging hard for our guy.

Rove must be shitting his pants.

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quaoar

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Wed Sep-29-04 10:00 PM
Response to Original message

9. Gallup is also showing Bush with a 10-point lead

in Florida in a two-man race.

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Media_Lies_Daily

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Wed Sep-29-04 10:04 PM
Response to Reply #9

10. Is the mix of GOP-Dem respondents that same as in their national poll?

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judaspriestess

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Wed Sep-29-04 10:14 PM
Response to Original message

11. polls are deceiving

polls are asking registered voters. There is a grass root effort that the media is conveniently ignoring. Many people who have never voted before are registering to vote. I'm sure not for Bush. Here in Nevada it was reported a few weeks ago that there are now 2500 more registered democrats than republicans. What does that tell you. My company had a campaign to allow people to come in and register to vote.
Eight people total registered at my office and guess what.....
All DEMOCRATS.
I hope they all show up to vote on election day.

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BrotherBuzz

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Thu Sep-30-04 01:02 AM
Response to Reply #11

17. My sis, in Reno, reports....

the same thing. She's part of that grass root voter registration drive. Her opinion is that everyone is mostly voting along party lines, but adds that the independent/decline to state (12% ?) are overwhelmingly supporting Kerry. It appears Nevada has gone blue despite Rove's dirty work!

Welcome to DU!

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farmbo

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Wed Sep-29-04 10:43 PM
Response to Original message

12. Tack another 3% on tonight...

Nader's off the ballot = 1.0%

Blackwell (SoS) backs of purging "thin" registration forms = 1.0%

Campus sweeps this week will register 35,000(75% will vote Kerry)= 1%

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Catullus

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Wed Sep-29-04 11:11 PM
Response to Reply #12

13. encouraging

GOTV efforts are usually easier for Dems, because they tend to live in urban areas.

Because of the %&@! Ekectoral College, the empty, GOP-heavy midwestern welfare states make the race competiive. Without'em, Dems would win 90% of the time.

If you think about it, states are just another form of Gerrymandering.

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Ksec

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Wed Sep-29-04 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #13

15. I live in Columbiana County Ohio (NE) and Ive never seen

anything like this registration drive this election. I will guaruntee, without any doubt, that Kerry wins big in Ohio.

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