Bush pulls ahead in trio of polls; 4th finds deadlock

Anyone want to guess what the polling methodologies are for those three polls? Curious that the most accurate poll from 2000 shows the numbers going in the opposite direction.





President Bush is pulling ahead of John Kerry in three polls as the race for the White House approaches its final two weeks while a fourth poll finds the candidates are deadlocked.

While Bush was touting his plan to fight terrorism in New Jersey on Monday and Kerry was criticizing the president’s “arrogant boasting” about the war in Iraq, political pundits were parsing this poll data, most of it gleaned after the three debates between the two candidates:

Bush leads 52-44 percent among likely voters in a Gallup Poll taken for CNN and USA Today from Thursday through Saturday, up from 49-46 after the second debate.
Bush leads 50-44 among likely voters in a Newsweek Poll conducted Thursday and Friday.
Bush leads 50-46 in a tracking poll of likely voters taken Wednesday through Saturday for ABC News, up from 48-48 in the Tuesday-Friday period.
Another poll, released Monday, found the candidates deadlocked at 45 percent each among likely voters. The Reuters/Zogby three-day tracking poll gave the president a 46-44 percent lead over the Massachusetts senator the previous day, and a four-point lead the day before that.

more...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6273430/

It's being freeped, big time.

this is from cbs washington wrap this morning - notice the date and gallup tracking numbers - a mistake? probably but if not, damned good numbers


Monday’s Headlines
* Poll Watch: Margins of Error
* No Bush 44 or 45?
* Florida Day: Reports from the Bush, Kerry, Edwards and Cheney campaigns

Poll Watch: Small Margin for Error: Across the polls, there is very little room and almost every poll is within the margin of error.

National Polls
Newsweek
Bush-Cheney 48
Kerry-Edwards 46
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided not reported
Conducted October 14 through 15 among 1,004 registered voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush-Cheney 48
Kerry-Edwards 49
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided not reported
Conducted October 16 through 17 among 793 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Time
Bush-Cheney 48
Kerry-Edwards 46
Nader-Camejo not reported
Undecided not reported
Conducted October 14 through 15 among 865 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4 percent.

ABC/Washington Post
Bush-Cheney 50
Kerry-Edwards 46
Nader-Camejo 2
Undecided not reported
Conducted October 13 through 16 among 1,648 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.

Zogby
Bush-Cheney 45
Kerry-Edwards 45
Nader-Camejo 1
Undecided 7
Conducted October 15 through 17 among 1,211 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 2.9 percent.

This will help ENERGIZE the Democrats, because the perception is that we are slightly behind (even though the polls are pretty much horseshit).

If we act like we're always 2-3 points behind, we'll end up a few points ahead.

Remember in 1968, Humphrey was 3 points ahead of Nixon on Election Day. But ask any schoolchild about "President Humphrey", and you'll get a blank stare.

Remember in 1976, Gerald Ford called Bob Dole during the early morning hours in excitement, because the polls showed him a couple of points ahead of Carter. Not only was Dole irritated by Ford's call, but Ford had to concede that night.

Remember in 1980, Carter was ahead of, or tied with, Reagan for most of the election season. It wasn't until the final weekend before Election Day that Reagan pulled solidly ahead.

Remember in 1992, the last poll before Election Day showed Clinton with 41%, and Bush with 40%. Yet Clinton beat Bush by 5 points on Election Day.

These polls do nothing but help us.

"Bush is pulling ahead" ...

but ...re Zogby ..."Another poll, released Monday, found the candidates deadlocked at 45 percent each among likely voters. The Reuters/Zogby three-day tracking poll gave the president a 46-44 percent lead over the Massachusetts senator the previous day, and a four-point lead the day before that."

Just how long did it take them to construct that last sentence rather than saying "Kerry coming on strong - or eroding Bush's lead by 5% over 3 days ...."

Instead they repeat the "president's lead" three times, without noting the dramatic shift ....

attention to. The real numbers are the unemployment numbers and the Americans without health care numbers!

Most of the polling services are assuming a larger republican turn out than democratic turn out. At least thats what the Gallup group said was one of their underlying premises. They have been polling @ around 25% more Republican voters than Democratic voters.

Just a not the owner of Gallup is a hard core Republican evangelical Christian.

Zogby's methods have been on the money since day one polling @ around 50/50 of likely voters.

These polls also do not in anyway reflect the rather large spike in new voters this year. It statical terms it impossible to discern the impact this group will have.

In the Gallup poll I recently saw, the Independents, etc. were given 31%, and the Democrats 30!! The Republicans were given 39%!!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

Also, stop posting likely voter numbers. They are meaningless this year since they are based on outdated assumptions and assume a low turnout. Registered voters are much more significant. And if a poll samples more Republicans than Democrats, don't post it either. There are more Democrats than Republicans out there so be suspicious if you see a poll showing the opposite.

The hope of our nation rests on Dem turnout.

<http://child.com/moms_dads/parenthood_issues/election_2004_poll.jsp>

John Kerry ahead 51/45.

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

although the sheeple propoganda factor can't be dismissed.

ABC's polls, so pretty much relying on any of those polls is relying on a poll skewed towards republicans

...tied at 47-47.

http://rasmussenreports.com/

The criteria for determining likely voters is so loose, that it can be manipulated until the pollster gets the results that he/she wants or the results that he/she was paid for. This is now so obvious that one gets tired of repeating it. It is sad what polling has come to.

Last year The New Yorker had a great cover showing * charging forward on his white stallion looking determined and arrogant. He (not the horse) had on blinders and the horse is looking back at him with complete panic. Priceless!