NEW JERSEY AGAIN A TIE

Bush, Kerry Tied at 46% in New Jersey, Quinnipiac Poll Shows
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry are tied at 46 percent each in New Jersey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. Bush, who visited the state last week, erased a 4-point Kerry lead...


The president lost New Jersey, which has 15 electoral votes, to Democrat Al Gore by 16 percentage points in 2000. To win the presidency, a candidate must gain majorities in enough states to collect at least 270 Electoral College votes, which are apportioned among states based on congressional representation. That tally, rather than national vote totals, determines the winner.


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=acd6n9bKJjx8&refer=home

Weighting on these polls is skewed heavily right. Internal polls do not reflect this, at all.

n/t

that some people had bought against the electronic voting in parts of NJ. The Courts said they saw no reason for the injunction or the case since these machines had been used in previous elections.

:wtf:

In accordance with LBN policy. Also, which poll says this is important. Thank you.
"Bush, Kerry Tied at 46% in New Jersey, Quinnipiac Poll Shows"

did, I still think Dems will win--but 9/11 hysteria probably will make it closer than in 2000.

They showed Gore ahead by much smaller margins than he won by.

You do the math. This poll is total pure 100% unadulterated bullshit.

I know because I am one of them and know quite a few.

Most of the people voting for Bush are registered repubs. My neighbors that are voting for Bush are registered as repubs.

Professor 2

Had the MOST errors.

I'm in a very republican county(Ocean), and they're not even bothering to put out chimp signs,only for the local candidates. It's going to be a double digit win statewide.

I guess a lot of people changed their mind. :eyes:

you seem to find all the negative polls.

that takes real talent.

the Freeper alert I saw posted elsewhere in DU? Anyone who believes that "poll: I have a lovely oceanside mansion for sale...in Arizona.
Jeesh, Baystateboy, why even bother to come here with this horseshit?
Pardon my French.

Professor 2

Anyone who thinks were going to win by a Landslide is probably medicating himself/herself.

Bunker Boy is going to win, period, is probably on serious meds.

Professor 2

...NJ was close, he would be in NJ campaigning hard. We've seen enough of his campaign so far that we should be reasonably comfortable that they know what they are doing...at least since he brought Lockhart and the rest of the Clinton team on board. Our job is to GOTV. Big Turnout = President Kerry. Low Turnout = 4 more years. Let the Kerry campaign worry about which states need its attention.

The poll of polls (http://tis.goringe.net/pop/scatter.html) lists this as one of the polls most frequently posting data that is on the fringe.

I went and looked at the details for the poll at http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11375.xml and could not find information on weighting. However, exit polls from 2000 say that 40% of NJ voters identify as Democrats and 30% as Republicans (the rest being independents). I'd love to know how they weighted the data.

and Rove will be less interested in playing funny games in NJ.

The poll is definitely wrong, but having it can only help the Democratic vote.

Kerry should really be going after what bush DIDN'T do before 9/11. NJ lost nearly 700 residents that day, so yeah I'd say they are freaked out by it. Bush uses 9/11 like a mop, its beyond offensive and disgusting. But whats bush's greatest strength?? People think he did a great job on 9/11. I have yet to see Kerry talk about how bush ignored the Hart/Rudman report or Richard Clarke. Bush ignored every warning he got. For God's sake how is bush going to protect us from bioterrorism, when he cant even get you a flu shot?? Or find the Anthrax killer or Bin Laden? Come on, bush follows a pattern of incompetence and it started long before 9/11. Why is Kerry not going after him about this and pointing it out?

The margin of error is plus or minus four percent. For the uneducated that means that Kerry's lead can be as much as 8%.

Note that this was taken only through Monday. The day Clinton and Kerry hit Philly. Which, I believe, would have been all over NJ TV.

My guess is that the Monday appearance will boost Kerry way back up in NJ -- not that I believe he was actually ever tied there.

People in the Kerry camp have confirmed that. Quinnipiac has always had NJ closer than other polls. If Bush wants to waste time and money there, he's welcome to.

In 2000, polls showed Gore's lead in NJ to be much narrower than it turned out to be.

Could this be an attempt by New Jersey and Hawaiian media get these guys to put some ad dollars into these markets by releasing tight, slightly weighted poll results.

originated the news also...........so it really is quite silly then :D

Since this trick or treat time, what do I get for a prize?

Last-minute rush gives New Jersey record number of voters
By GEOFF MULVIHILL
Associated Press Writer
October 25, 2004

MOUNT HOLLY, N.J. -- More than 380,000 new voters registered in New Jersey between the primaries in June and the Oct. 4 deadline _ the largest flurry of such sign-ups the state has ever seen.
snip---
The new registrations favored Democrats over Republicans though the majority of new registrants did not choose to declare a party preference.

The total of 5,005,959 voters eligible to cast ballots Nov. 2 includes 1,163,224 Democrats, 884,801 Republicans and 2,938,562 unaffiliated voters. The rest of the voters registered with minor parties.

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-nj--newvoters1025oct25,0,1520244.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire

It is my understanding that new voters don't get polled.

Almost 300,000 more DEMS than thugs! And 3,000,000 unaffiliated voters did not register to vote in NJ because Bu$h did a wonderful job in NJ.

They registered to vote so they could merrily sing and dance with the rest of us as Bu$h goes down in a landslide.

:wtf:

On www.electoral-vote.com, Kerry has 50%, Nader has 2%, and Bush has 43%. It's impossible to know if that actually means anything though.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/hawaii.html

In the space of about four days, the state went from being about sixteen points in favor of Kerry, to a statistical dead heat. Was there a revolution or something over there???

the most Republican of the islands.

almost the exact opposite of what the state was in 2000. Did it reverse in 4 years? Uh, no.

Professor 2

This thread has no merit.

Perhaps it will make us work all the harder?

I find it very offensive.

Learn the rules or die a quick death.
:wtf:

Have a nice day now and every day for the next eight years of the Kerry administration. :toast:

...that told us that Cuomo was waaaay ahead of Pataki? Yeah, I'm gonna worry about what they say...as soon as I'm done worrying about the Yellowstone Caldera.

...the HOWARD STERN EFFECT?

Howard is beloved amongst registered Republican males. They are not going to vote for weecowboy, because if the choice is between stumblebum and Howard, Howard will win. And that is exactly how Howard is going to play it.

I smell a stink up in here....it is the stink of lazy desperados, who would rather sit on their asses and try, futilely, to sow the seeds of dissent rather than get up off their asses and do some GOTV work for their candidate.

But ya know, that's HAAAAARD WORK, it's HAAAAAARD...!!! Much easier to take a fast poop in the punch!

There should be a morotorium against posters with a sub 100 post count posting these type of polls.

ESPLAIN why Bush is pulling volunteers from NJ? WHY? WHY? WHY?

If this race was really 46% he'd be putting volunteers INTO INTO New Jersey.

New Jersey is Kerrys...there should be no other discussion about New Jersey. New Jersey should be where Mississippi is...in the kill file...both states are done.

If Bush thought he could win NJ then we'd be seeing some advertising here. There's nothing, it's the same as 2000, like "What Election?"

Also, posters please refrain from personal attacks on others.