When oil peaks ...

PRAGUE - Fertilizer, DVDs, rubber, cheap flights, plastics and metals. None of these things have anything in common, right? Think again. An ingredient in all of them, in one form or another, is oil.

Oil is the precious primer of the world economic engine, making it hum. Oil provides 40% of the world's energy needs, and nearly 90% of all transportation. It's also a building block for many products and goods. Cut supplies of this natural resource and life as we know it could change.

But while some experts say the world runs no risk of running out of oil, others disagree. Sounding the alarm is the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. Its president is Kjell Aleklett, a physics professor at Sweden's Upsalla University.

" the next 30 years we will find more than 150, maybe 200, but probably not, but 150 billion barrels of oil is roughly what you're going to find," Aleklett said. "And during the same period, we will consume 1,000 . So that means we are now digging deep into the reserves we have at the moment."
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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GA26Dj04.html

eom

I know it's true. Try telling this to the morAn community in their hummers and yukons (same piece of shit truck by the way.)

We went into Iraq because we're already there.

and they predict (or should that be prophesy) peak oil to hit in 2008. I seriously doubt that estimate. The official US estimate is around 2030 by the way, and while that seems overly optimistic the 2008 date is definitely too pessimistic.
Let's split the difference and assume peak oil will occur around 2015-2020. Based on an estimated annual 3% reduction in oil production, the oil production will be halved in about 23 years after the peak. So there will be a slow transition, giving plenty of time to develop alternatives.

By 2038-2043 (peak oil + 23 years) we can eliminate oil consumption altogether.

Jonathan Hoag

That would be inline with ASPO. Aren't the oil wars and the price hikes a sign of impending problems?

long before any deep energy shortfalls occur. Renewable/alternate energy supplies will probably come on line at a rate that may at least keep up the decrease in fossil fuel energy resources. There seem to be a number of viable energy technologies (wind, solar, bio-fuels) that will be marketable as the cost of petroleum and natural gas continues to rise.

However, from what I have been reading, none have anywhere near the capability to provide the exponential growth in energy supply that the era of cheap petroleum and natural gas provided. The problem is that all of the alternate energy sources seem to have EROEI’s in the 1.5 to 4.5 range, and will never be able to offset the loss of the thermodynamic bounty harvested in petroleum and natural gas.

For the first time since the industrial era began, the exponential growth in energy supplies that modern growth centric industrial economies depend will end upon (US 1950 - 34.6 Qbtu, 2002 - 98.0 Qbtu, average 2.0%/year since 1950). How this will impact highly complex economic systems that are based on growth as a premise can only be speculated, but based on our experience of the 70’s, it does not look good.

And regarding optimistic ‘official’ peak oil estimates, consider the following statement from the US EIA’s highly optimistic “Annual Energy Outlook 1998 With Projections To 2020”. It reads: “These adjustments to the USGS and MMS estimates are based on non-technical considerations that support domestic supply growth to the levels necessary to meet projected demand levels.” Or the equally optimistic USGS WPA 2000 report, where the authors note that there is complete uncertainty in reserve growth outside the US and Canada.

In other words, a rosy oil reserve picture is being presented in the ‘official’ reports for political reasons. Myself, I trust a group of independent scientists like ASPO studying the issue over the government and ‘official’ industry (prole feed) estimates.

I think that in the end we will yield more oil than ASPO predicts, but I feel they are probably fairly close to the date of peak supply rate.

if we give ourselves enough time to do it. We haven't even bothered to start trying and as long as the idiot and his neocon buddies are in power we won't start. Denial runs way too deep for this crowd.

And really, who in the hell is going to know until a few years past it that we've reached peak? It could just as easily be 2008 as 2030.

I tell her there is a bridge in Brooklyn I'd love to sell her!

If she does say and believe such things, I think you should get her some help. She's psychotic.

just fundamentalist and easily led.

This is the bullshit she hears from the ASSemblies of Gawd. SHe believes it with a straight face, just like the bullshit that Jesus is going to rapture her in a week or 2.