Divided Bolivia likely close to a showdown

Polarization viewed as very dangerous for poor nation
Reed Lindsay, Chronicle Foreign Service

Saturday, March 19, 2005

La Paz, Bolivia -- In less than two weeks, President Carlos Mesa gambled with his mandate twice and won both times -- or so it seemed.

But the real showdown in South America's poorest nation -- riven by ethnic, class and ideological differences -- has only begun, many analysts say.

"In the coming weeks or months there will be a confrontation," said Alvaro Garcia, a political analyst in La Paz. "The political center has been emptied, and the country is sharply divided between left and right. For the moment, everything seems to be on hold, but in the future this polarization could be very dangerous."

Mesa is supported by the nation's political elite, who are allied with foreign investors and backed by Bolivia's relatively small but influential middle class. The opposition is led by presidential hopeful Evo Morales, who heads the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) -- Bolivia's major opposition party. He is an outspoken critic of U.S. drug policy in Bolivia and popular with the poor Aymara and Quechua indigenous majority. <snip>

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