The Early Line On Bob Casey Jr. vs Tricky Ricky Santorum

March 8-10th polling on Pennsylvania candidates are giving a strong early lead to Casey.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45925278-98fe-4060-b496-b4dfbaf01f7c).%20%20\

Pennsylvania is a funny state - and if your exposure to it is limited to the PIT and PHL airports or the campuses of the colleges or driving through on I-80 or I-76, you can't understand it or explain it. Don't try. And don't impose NY or CA Democratic models on PA Democrats.

All politics is local.

...and that would be Chester county on the eastern side of the state. So goes Chester county, so goes the state. Some prognosicators have it down to one precinct, but for me, I'd rather use the county as a whole.

If Casey can come out of Philly and the 4 surrounding counties with close to a 500,000 vote plurality, there is no way Santorum can win. There aren't enough Republican counties with anywhere near enough votes that can over come that margin. And I haven't even gotten to Pittsburgh.

If you think 500,000 is a lot of votes. It is. But Kerry carried those same counties with 432,000 votes. Casey will do better. I think he'll carry between 88-90% of the vote out of Philadelphia area.

Remember, you heard it here first.

OP

That little nickname brings some great baggage along for the ride simply by word association!

I'm going to start using that instead of man-on-dog Santorum.

Sanctimonious Santorum. Both are apt descriptions, and I want to "label" the b@stard before he can pull a "skerry" Kerry number on Casey.

OP

for several years now. I like man on dog, too, because it is such a creepy thing to say. Tricky Rick is cute though. I just think he's more weird than tricky.