Haaretz: AIPAC Pushing Congress Toward Iran Sanctions Bill

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Last update - 06:20 14/05/2005
AIPAC spurring Congress to pass sanctions bill against Iran
By Haaretz Service and News Agencies

In the run-up to its annual meeting in Washington later this month, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee is urging Congress to pass legislation authorizing new sanctions against Iran.

As Iran appears to move closer to resuming nuclear activities, support has been quietly building in Congress for new U.S. sanctions, including penalties that could affect multinational companies and recipients of U.S. foreign aid. A SANCTIONS REGIME THAT DOESN'T TARGET US-BASED MULTINATIONAL OIL COMPANIES WOULD BE ESSENTIALLY MEANINGLESS. WOULD BUSH SIGN A BILL THAT REALLY CUTS THE OIL INDUSTRY OFF FROM A MAJOR SUPPLY SOURCE - WHAT DO YOU THINK? EXPECT SOMETHING ELSE, OR GAS IS GOING TO GO OVER $3 A GALLON, OVERNIGHT, EVEN IF BUSH TAPS INTO THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE.

The legislation would put the United States on a more confrontational course than the one pursued by President George W. Bush's administration. Bush has supported European efforts to offer Iran incentives in exchange for abandoning its nuclear program. ACTUALLY, BOLTON HAS DONE EVERYTHING SHORT OF TARGETED KILLINGS TO TRY TO BULLY THE IAEC TO CALL OFF EFFORTS AT A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT

More than 200 members of the House of Representatives - almost half the body - are co-sponsoring a bill that would tighten and codify existing sanctions, bar subsidiaries of U.S. companies from doing business in Iran and cut foreign aid to countries that have businesses investing in Iran. NEITHER CHINA, RUSSIA NOR INDIA RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT US FOREIGN AID. NOR DO THE EUROPEANS. THE US TREASURY IS INSTEAD SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THEM.

Additional lawmakers - Republicans and Democrats - are adding their names to the bill every week.

The bill faces big hurdles before becoming law. Support may not be as strong in the Senate, which is considering a more limited version of the bill. Key lawmakers in both chambers could block the legislation. The White House has not taken a position, but generally opposes congressional efforts to steer foreign policy.

"We will have the perennial and traditional battle with the executive branch as to who can have a say on foreign policy initiatives," said Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the House bill's main sponsor and a member of Bush's Republican Party.

But momentum would likely build if Iran carries out its threat to resume some nuclear activities and its talks break down with Britain, France and Germany, which are negotiating on behalf of the European Union. THE EUROPEANS ARE EXPECTED TO CALL A HALT TO TALKS, BUT IT ISN'T CERTAIN THE MATTER WILL BE IMMEDIATELY REFERRED TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL. THE NEGOTIATORS HAVE REACHED AN IMPASSE BEFORE, AND TALKS RESTARTED. WASHINGTON HAS INSISTED THAT REFERRAL IS THE ONLY COURSE IF THE IRANIANS DO NOT AGREE TO END ALL ENRICHMENT ACTIVITIES - THE IRANIAN PARLIAMENT VOTED ON 5/15 TO CONTINUE - THERE IS A LAST ROUND OF MINISTERIAL LEVEL TALKS SCHEDULED FOR 5/23. SOMETHING TELLS ME THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF BREAKTHROUGH.

The triumverate has warned Iran they will break off talks and join Washington in seeking UN Security Council action if Tehran makes good on its threats to resume atomic work, European Union officials said on Thursday.

The legislation is expected to get a boost when one of the most influential lobbying groups, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, holds its annual meeting in Washington this month. AIPAC has made the bill a high priority. BECAUSE OF THE AIPAC-OSP SCANDAL, THE LOBBYING GROUP IS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE. IT'S NOT UNIVERSALLY FEARED AS THE REAL THIRD-RAIL OF AMERICAN POLITICS, AS IT ONCE WAS.

"It will certainly, along with other things, be part of the agenda when thousands of members of AIPAC go to Capitol Hill" to lobby Congress, said Josh Block, a spokesman for the group.

A pro-business group, the National Foreign Trade Council, is lobbying against the bill, but its president, Bill Reinsch, said "the deck is kind of stacked against us."

"People don't like to have it look like they're voting against something that will stick it to an unpopular country," he said. "So, yeah, we're worried about it." THE ADMINISTRATION IS EXPECTED TO STICK IT TO THEM, ALL RIGHT, BUT IT WILL MORE LIKELY COME IN THE FORM OF F-15 STRIKES AND SOME WET OPS.

Washington says Iran's nuclear activities are intended to build a bomb, though Iran says it seeks only to generate electricity. It suspended uranium-enrichment activities in November while it negotiates with the Europeans If the talks fail, the White House would likely look for EU support to take Iran to the UN Security Council, where it could face international sanctions.

FM Shalom: Iran to develop nuclear know-how within 9 months
Iran may develop the know-how to make nuclear weapons in six to nine months, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said on Friday. He called on the United Nations to impose sanctions on Iran. THE IRANIANS DON'T HAVE SIGNIFICANT STOCKS OF WEAPONS GRADE MATERIALS. THEY ARE MORE LIKE 5-7 YEARS AWAY, ACCORDING TO THE CIA.

"Iran poses an existential threat, and that's why I think that the entire world understands that it's impossible to give such an extremist regime the possibility of having a nuclear bomb that can essentially threaten the integrity of the world," Shalom said Friday in an interview with Israel Radio. THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO EXTREMIST REGIMES IN THE REGION THAT ALREADY HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS. SO FAR, NO BOOM-BOOM.

The day before, Shalom warned that Tehran was close to knowing how to make nuclear weapons. A SOPHOMORE CHEMISTRY MAJOR WITH ACCESS TO THE INTERNET AND A METAL FABRICATION SHOP COULD BUILD A CRUDE "GUN TYPE" A-BOMB, WITH THE RIGHT MATERIALS. THIS KNOWLEDGE HAS BEEN IN THE PUBLIC DOMAIN FOR DECADES.

"Iran's announcement of their decision to renew uranium enrichment is, of course, a very dangerous announcement that must be viewed with appropriate concern," he told foreign diplomats at a reception at the President's Residence on Thursday. "Unfortunately, we see that indeed Iran will do everything to reach nuclear capability. The question is not whether Iran will have a nuclear bomb in 2009 or 2011. The question is when will they have sufficient knowledge , and we think that this possibility even exists, possibly, in another six to nine months." SINCE KNOWLEDGE IS THE ISSUE, I GUESS THIS JUSTIFIES ISRAEL KILLING AS MANY OF IRANIAN NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS AS POSSIBLE.

Shalom also called on the International Atomic Energy Association to use its June 13 meeting to make a "clear and unequivocal decision" to bring the Iran issue before the United Nations Security Council, which he said "has the sole authority to impose sanctions on Iran." ACCORDING TO CURRENT ISRAELI DEFENSE DOCTRINE, PREEMPTIVE STRIKES ARE THEIR OWN AUTHORITY

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Moshe Ya'alon told Army Radio on Thursday that Israel knows how to protect itself against a potential Iranian threat.

"Iran is the central proponent of terrorism and Islamic fanaticism and it has a non-conventional leadership that is liable to develop non-conventional weaponry," Ya'alon said. "Israel, therefore, needs to know how to defend itself against every threat and will always know how to do so."

Earlier Thursday, Rohani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, said Tehran would resume some nuclear activities because it cannot continue nuclear negotiations with Europeans.

"Continuation of negotiations in their present format is not possible for us," Rohani told state-run television, saying the talks were not balanced and were costly for Iran.

"The basic point that the Islamic Republic of Iran will resume part of its nuclear activities in the near future is definite," Rohani had said.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair spelled out the potential consequences, telling reporters: "We certainly will support referral to the United Nations Security Council if Iran breaches its obligations and undertakings." IRAN HAS NOT BREACHED THE NPT, ARTICLE IV PERMITS ANY SIGNATORY NATION TO DEVELOP ITS OWN DOMESTIC NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM AND MATERIALS. THE IRANIANS HAVE NOT BEEN EXPORTING WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY - THAT HAS BEEN PAKISTAN FUNDED BY THE SAUDIS. THE ASSAULT ON IRAN MAY ALSO SPUR OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES TO ACCELERATE THEIR NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMS, AND WILL KILL THE CURRENT NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME. MUST READ: "THE IRAN CRISIS IN GLOBAL CONTEXT" http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?pid=2452

The United States believes Iran's nuclear energy program is a front to develop atomic weapons and has been pressing for Iran's case to be sent to the 15-member UN council for possible economic sanctions and other actions.

The EU shares U.S. suspicions but has offered incentives to try to get Tehran to give up its atomic fuel program, which Iran insists is only for nuclear power plants, not for arms.

French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier also urged Iran to maintain its voluntary freeze on enrichment-related activities.

"We continue to hope that Iran will not go ahead with this move, for which it is aware of the consequences," Barnier told the French Senate upper house of parliament.

The EU letter proposed "ministerial level talks" between the Iranians and Europeans within the next two weeks to break the impasse and avoid a crisis, EU diplomats said. THE CARROT APPROACH IS THE ONLY THING THAT'S GOING TO WORK. COME WHAT MAY, IRAN IS GOING TO BUILD THE BOMB, AND AN ATTACK WOULD PROBABLY SPEED UP THE PROCESS. THE ONLY QUESTION IS, HOW MUCH OF A RISK IS THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION WILLING TO TAKE TO: 1) PLACATE THE NEOCONS AND LIKUD; AND 2) KEEP WORLD OIL PRICES ELEVATED, BUT SHY OF THE POINT WHERE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY CRASHES?


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