Stirrings near Iran's oil fields in Khuzestan
The Daily Star Middle East | Iason Athanasiadis
Beirut
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There is no triumphalism in his voice as he states the obvious fact that Washington and its British ally are foundering in the Iraqi morass. Their difficulties were demonstrated once again, last month, as the pressure was turned up in the predominantly Shiite south which is under British military control. Early this month, British Prime Minister Tony Blair publicly mused that Tehran might be behind attacks that have killed eight British soldiers recently and noted that the timing coincided with the breakdown in nuclear negotiations between Iran and the EU-3.
While Tehran denies any role in Iraq, Iranian officials privately confess that they are deeply involved in Iraq and that their western neighbor must neither be allowed to fully stabilize, nor fall apart. They point to Western collusion in the sudden spike this year in ethnic unrest in the strategic, oil-producing province of Khuzestan and describe it as proof of a shadowy war that is receiving far less coverage in the international press than events in Iraq. Since the beginning of 2005, riots and a bombing campaign timed to coincide with the June presidential elections rocked Khuzestan's major cities. Iranian Kurdistan has also seen violent protests and clashes with the central government. In September, a visiting TV crew was treated with suspicion in many Kurdish-dominated areas, despite being accompanied by well-regarded locals. Their guides explained the frosty reception as proof of the tensions with central government that the province is experiencing.
As diplomatic tension mounts on Tehran over its nuclear energy program, the Bush administration insists that its spy planes are not over-flying Iran to electronically map its target-rich environment - a Pentagon planner's dream after the sparse pickings of Iraq and Afghanistan. But Scott Ritter, a former U.S. Marine who was head of the United Nations inspection team in Iraq, insists that the war with Iran has already started. Not only are covert operations ongoing, he insists, but the Pentagon's planners are right now drawing up an air-strike and invasion strategy that will see a period of concerted bombardment followed by four divisions of U.S. troops invading Iran through Azerbaijan and heading straight for the Iranian capital. Although little-discussed by the international media, the Azerbaijan invasion route is the most practical as it bypasses conflict-wracked launch-points such as Iran or Afghanistan. It also has the added advantage of being the quickest route to Tehran.
Last week, the Iranians announced that they are not at all concerned over the U.S.-funded construction of two sophisticated radars on the Azerbaijani side of the Caspian Sea. While the development prompted a European diplomat based in Tehran to jokingly quote Hamlet ("the lady doth protest too much, methinks") the new radar is equipped with advanced military tools that can be used to screen the Caspian's entire southern section for suspect activity, monitor ground activities in the northern and northeastern parts of Iran (within an up-to-450-kilometer range) and intercept radio and cell-phone conversations.
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http://www.iht.com/getina/files/283042.html
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