Jim Kunstler - Attention Deficit Nation

November 7, 2005

The American public's failure to pay attention reached supernatural levels this week as our mass media gloated over falling gasoline prices -- down 24 cents, average, to pre-hurricane levels. The news media took this to mean that all the end-of-the-summer trouble is over with and things can now get back to normal, including especially an economy based on trade in suburban houses.

What they failed to notice is this: since the hurricanes shredded our Gulf of Mexico oil and gas capacity, Europe has been sending us 2 million barrels of crude oil and "refined product" a day from its collective strategic petroleum reserve. The "refined product" includes 800,000 barrels of gasoline, plus diesel, aviation, and heating fuel. Meanwhile, US domestic production has fallen to around 4 million barrels of conventional crude a day. America uses close to 22 million barrels of oil a day. Bottom line: post-hurricane, total imports have accounted for 80 percent of America's oil consumption.

Now, the important part of all this is that last week the International Energy Agency (IEA), Europe's energy security watchdog, declared that it would now end the 2 million barrel a day shipments to the US. Not because they are hateful meanies, but because, after all, it is Europe's strategic reserve and they can't sell it all to us because, well, some strategic emergency might come up for them, too.

It will take a few weeks for the last of Europe's tankers to offload supplies and for the various fuels to work their way through the US fuels retail system. With US production and refining still crippled, we can look forward to watching the price of gasoline, heating oil, diesel and aviation fuel kick back up through Thanksgiving and on into the heart of the Christmas shopping season. At the same time, homeowners will be getting their first substantial heating bills of the season.

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/

It's like the Europeans don't care that our gas prices will be rising to nearly 1/3 of what they pay already a liter. Don't they realize our Humvees are dying out here?

On edit- don't research that 1/3 what they pay a liter stat please. When I'm riled I make some stuff up. But I do know Europe pays a lot more for go juice than we do. See, I know something. I read Kunstlers blogs faithfully. They are fun all the time and accurate most.

what gas prices are in the US, but in Great Britain, it can go as high as 90 pence or so per litre, or somewhere around $6.00 per gallon, and it's floating around the dollar mark per litre here in Canada.In the Netherlands, prices are around $6.48 per gallon (remember that the US is the only country which still uses the British system of measurements too; the rest of the world uses the metric system and sells gas per litre, a bit more than a quart.)

Part of that, of course, is taxation; gas taxes pay for things like roads and "green" research both in Europe and here. Britain is actually considering a carbon ration, which would mean that everyone would pay for the polluting ways. It's not a bad idea, actually; it would at least make a dent in the amount of greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere.

I wasn't too far off. We could add additional taxes to our gas sales too I suppose. But they would just help pay for our wars. Sorry, I am not supposed to take my 'bitter' pills so early in the day.

Kunstler spoke at a recent 'petro-collapse' gathering in New York and mentioned that he believed economic collapse may happen in the "next few weeks".

Kenneth Deffeyes, another well known Peak Oil authority, stated last year he believed the collapse would occur on Thanksgiving 2005.

Deffeyes indicated that peak production could occur on on Thanksgiving- but that was taken by most in the know as sort of joke- as in- we should be thankful for what we had. Truth is, neither Deffeyes not Campbell know when production will peak- no one will till we see it in the rear view mirror.

And even after it does, there's not going to be a quick "collapse" (not from oil prices, at anyrate). It'll happen gradually over many years, with tipping points in various subsystems as they become less and less economical.

But there remains a great deal of debate about 'hard' vs. 'soft' crash scenarios. "Oil Storm, the movie", may have exaggerated the impact some, but I do not feel we have 'many years'.

Also, Saudi Aramco and other sources notwithstanding, the peak has likely already been experienced, or is now.