The symptoms of oil withdrawal- San Francisco Chronicle - 5/28/2006

The symptoms of oil withdrawal, Ely Ratner, Naazneen Barma - San Francisco Chronicle - 5/28/2006
It has become fashionable in Washington to declare that the United States must end its "addiction" -- as President Bush put it in his latest State of the Union speech -- to foreign oil. Advocates of energy independence argue that U.S. dollars are propping up oppressive regimes in the Middle East, fomenting the rise of radical fundamentalism. Reducing our demand for oil, they say, will suck these "petrocracies" dry, paving the way for democracy.

But we shouldn't be so smug about the foreign policy consequences of energy independence. Though the domestic benefits of an alternative energy policy are clear, it is likely that breaking free from Middle Eastern oil will intensify, not reduce, the national security threats facing the United States.

Rosy scenarios that long for the demise of "petrocracy" rest on shaky ground. Consider what would happen in the Middle East if Americans drastically reduced their spending on foreign oil. Other gas guzzlers would almost certainly take the place of the United States as the region's most important trading and strategic partner. China is already taking on this role with relish, and oil producers are welcoming it with open arms. In Saudi Arabia, the red carpet was rolled out for Chinese President Hu the very next day after he was treated like a second-class citizen by the Bush administration. It is hard to believe that democracy will prevail in a world in which the Saudis are in bed with the Chinese instead of the Cheneys. It goes without saying that the United States would lose much of its influence and leverage in the region.

On the other hand, if the current regimes were successfully starved of their much coveted petrodollars, the Middle East could become a region of weak, failing and failed states, akin to parts of Africa that have all but been abandoned by the international community. If we were to pull the rug out from under the ruling regimes, who would support the restless populations accustomed to a social-safety net derived from oil? Democratic experiments in the Gaza Strip and Afghanistan provide sobering illustrations of what democracy looks like without the resources to support it. Nature may abhor a vacuum, but terrorists, sex traders and drug pushers certainly don't.

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