What Rove's Skate May Mean

| Bernard Weiner |

The 24-hour-news cycle bit me.

You see, I had written an imagined "Peek into Patrick Fitzgerald's Diary" where the Special Counsel was ranting on about how he was going to tighten the legal noose around Rove's pudgy neck and maybe wind up getting Cheney as well.

When I woke up early yesterday morning, the news was out: Fitzgerald apparently wasn't going to indict Rove.

My heart fell. Not just because the Rovester, perhaps the most detested and dangerous member of the Bush Bunker crew, was allowed to skate, but also because the piece I had worked on for days suddenly was behind-the-times and irrelevant.

Such happenstances don't come along often, but a satiric writer riding the lip of the news wave always risks being overtaken and wiped-out by real-life events of the moment, and this was my turn. The water was cold and I felt a bit embarrassed - the story was pulled at Democratic Underground before it even saw the light of day, but it was on The Crisis Papers home page in the early morning for several hours before we took it down.

But that was merely a personal hiccup. The more serious matter was that Rove would be able to devote his full time, attention and dirty-politics skills to the upcoming November election, instead of having to spend inordinate amounts of time in consultation with his legal defense team trying to stay out of the federal slammer.

A DEAL MAY HAVE BEEN STRUCK

That last expression may help explain what is going down here. It may just turn out that Rove was so desperate to escape the likelihood of incarceration that he made a deal with Fitzgerald. He gets to walk away if he testifies against Scooter, and tells what he knows about Cheney and maybe even Bush, among others.

That certainly is one way to interpret the Rove news this morning. The other is that Fitzgerald simply didn't think he could make the charges stick against Rove and felt obliged to cut him loose.

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on the former interpretation, or maybe even a combination of the two. Even just judging from news reporting on this story, it would appear that an open-and-shut case had been made for charging Rove with, at the very least, perjury and obstruction of justice. Whether or not Fitzgerald was convinced he could make the case stand up in court, he may have convinced Rove that conviction was pretty much a slam-dunk.

Rove's lawyer won't release the text of Fitzgerald's letter that reportedly gives his client a walk. It's possible there are hints in the actual text indicating why Rove is free to go: on condition that he cooperate with the ongoing investigation, that sort of thing.

"SEALED VS. SEALED"

Which brings us to Jason Leopold's story Monday that asserted, with far less bravado than his previous "scoop" weeks ago announcing Rove's "indictment," the likelihood that the indictment had been under seal for nearly five weeks. Leopold even supplied the title under which the likely indictment was kept secret ("Sealed vs. Sealed") and a case number ( "06 cr 128").

Hardly anyone was willing to publish that story. Was Leopold full of crap (again), many editors and bloggers mused? Or is there a more complicated, and compelling, interpretation?

Here's mine: If indeed Rove was told that a sealed indictment had been issued for his arrest in the case, it's possible that Fitzgerald used that scary fact as added inducement to Bush's chief political advisor to use this last chance to cut a deal. Rove, seeing the likely prison handwriting on the wall, made the deal, which took weeks of detailed discussions between Rove's team and
Fitzgerald to work out.

DESPAIR AND TRANSFORMATION

Or, a contrary interpretation, not mine: That Fitzgerald's bluff didn't work because Rove didn't bite. He looked at all the far-right ideological loyalists that Bush has appointed to the various appeals courts and decided that even if convicted he'd never have to spend a day in federal prison, or that Bush would pardon him one way or another.

Of course, we're all speculating in the dark out here in the cybersphere. We won't be able to pin this story down more until or unless Fitzgerald himself makes a public move, and he's given no indication he's ready to do so. Indeed, if his probe is ongoing, he may not reveal much for a while yet. (For more on the unfolding events, see the invaluable insights of former federal prosecutor Christy Hardin Smith and the blogger http://billmon.org/archives/002467.html">Billmon.)

The despair I felt yesterday morning upon hearing the Rove-going-free news may be transformed some weeks or months down the line, one can hope, if more indictments are unsealed, with key players in the Bush Administration - and you know who I mean - frog-marched for their fingerprinting and picture-taking prior to court appearances. If there is no additional legal action from Fitzgerald's office, it will lend more support to those who never believed Fitzgerald was completely on the up-and-up in the first place and that all along the fix was in.

Stay tuned. This story is "hot," no matter what does or does not happen, and it is not going away.

-- BW

But it ain't gonna happen.

You see, all of this "speculation"...."brainstorming"....."anyalsis".....etc, etc, etc, just doesn't go anywhere. Does it??

All of these story lines that become legless.......so energy sapping and demoralizing.

The Libby story due to the back burner status, has lost steam and front page status. It is still there, but in most peoples mind (everyday folk who don't read DU) not very important.

We are left holding the bag, the bottom soppy where the shit hit and fell out. And the little shit got away laughing all the way back to the White House.

I still do not understand what happened. What is next. And is there a next.

Which is a two-fer, since feeding Cheney to the fishes will ensure that Rove never eats lunch in DC again.

There's nothing good on TV anyway, and the good film is rare, so go for it! We will make our own reality, just like Dubya or the MSM, but ours will have some resemblance to the real world and the truths and laws.

Meahwhile, Rove is likely building a Fuck-You fund as fast as he can, no doubt in an offshore setting.

they're more willing to dump Cheney ASAP than nasty Rover. Cheney hangs over the GOP's big plans for their 'renewal spin'games for '08 election. They don't want Cheney hanging around the Oval in '07.

... hence Fitz's statement;

"We don't ANTICIPATE bringing charges against Rove"

That statement leaves open the potential for charges in the future if new information is dug up by the special prosecutor. And I think that Fitz is about to lean on Dick Armetage now, who rumor has it spilled the beans to Bob Woodward about Plame. So in essence the fat man in this case could still sing and take more people down with him. Stay tuned, because as yogi says, "It ain't over till it's over."

Edited to add;

Karl Rove's house of cards may yet come down if Fitz catches him in ONE more lie. And considering the skeletons in Rove's closet, that's probably more than enough to keep him up at night.

word "anticipate" is lawyereeze for covering thy ass.

Just like a flight attendent will say at take off........"In the unlikely event of a problem....."

Do not, under any circumstances get yourself in a hopefully mindset over one word.

Least we not forget Jeff/James Gannon/Guckert or whatever his name was is.

...jump out of the closet when you (Rove) least expect it. Members of this administration are still under investigation, and with that being the case anything could still happen.

"...don't anticipate" is NO guarantee.

...I am a a lawyer and I sat and thought about situations where I would use "anticipate." What came out of this rare reflective mood of mine what that I use it when I have not closed the door to something. If I am NOT going somewhere, my responses/statements are much more firm and would not use that particular word.

But...I cannot speak for Fitzgeral and am only saying what went through my mind on the use of the word "anticipate."

It's wishful thinking that Rove struck some deal to reveal embarrassing or incriminating information about Bush or Cheney. I doubt you can roll Cheney and live to tell the tale. A deal may have been struck to roll Libby, but I even doubt that. I don't think Fitzgerald thinks he has enough evidence to convict, so he won't indict Rove.

The nadir of this whole sorry episode is that this Administration intentionally outed a case officer in counterpro operations with hundreds of active contacts - and got away with it. The only difference between the Bush cabal who outed Valerie Plame and the scum Aldrich Ames, Jonathan Pollard and Robert Hanssen is that the latter three were jailed. Think about that the next time someone calls the Dems "weak on national security."

Fitz never said he's stopped looking for more evidence! (It ain't over--Ken Starr and Co showed us how to give these investigations a life of their own...)

...I'm kinda partial to the idea of a civil suit from Joe and Valerie. Of course, their 'judges' can probably throw that out pretty quickly, but if it indeed does mean we'll have Cheney in the pillory for months and months, then it'll probably be worth it, but either way, it'll be nice to have both of their sorry asses held up to public ridicule between now and November.

to Bushco, because it's all out in public--unlike the secret procedings of Fitz's GJ. All those subpoenad documents and taped depositions--oh my! And of course, because of the considerably SC precedent set during the Whitewater/Paula/Monica investigations, a sitting President/VP is in no way immune from any part of a civil suit brought by an individual. So of course they'd be crazy NOT to sue. And what wonderful theater it will make!

In the long run he can still do more damage to the Republic.

function from a jail cell, since his power is strategy (sick strategy, but I digress).
Cheney's power comes from position. If you remove him from his position, he loses a great deal of his power.

in light of that, I think removing Cheney actually will accomplish more, and only if Rove is discredited completely, can he be nullified, and I don't see that happening. Even if everything from here on out that Rove orchestrates fails, he will still be sought after by morally bankrupt republicans.