"War on Lebanon Planned for at least a Year"

Sunday, July 23, 2006

War on Lebanon Planned for at least a Year
The Bush Administration's Grand Strategy and the Birth Pangs of Terror

Israeli war planes hit the cities of Sidon, south Beirut and Baalbak on Saturday and Israeli ground troops fought a hard battle to take over the village of Maroun al-Ras, said to be a Hizbullah rocket-launching site. The Israeli bombing of Sidon hit a religious complex linked to Hizbullah. The BBC reports that 'The UN's Jan Egeland said half a million people needed assistance - and the number was likely to increase. One-third of the recent Lebanese casualties, he said, appeared to be children. '

Matthew Kalman reveals that Israel's wideranging assault on Lebanon has been planned in a general way for years, and a specific plan has been in the works for over a year. The "Three Week War" was shown to Washington think tanks and officials last year on powerpoint by a senior Israeli army officer:
"More than a year ago, a senior Israeli army officer began giving PowerPoint presentations, on an off-the-record basis, to U.S. and other diplomats, journalists and think tanks, setting out the plan for the current operation in revealing detail."

...But since Hizbullah's short-range katyushas can only hit targets 3-4 miles away, and were mainly being fired at the occupied Shebaa Farms, why worry about it so much?

1. If Hizbullah forced Israel out of the Shebaa Farms, it might increase pressure for it to give back the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem, and all of the West Bank-- the other territories stolen by Israel in 1967. The Israelis have their own Domino Theory, which haunts them the way the original haunted Lyndon Johnson-- and just as foolishly.

2. Some of Hizbullah's missiles might have been able to hit sensitive Israeli chemical or nuclear sites, or just cause panic by hitting Israeli cities. There was zero likelihood of Hezbollah launching such a strike unprovoked. But this capacity formed at least a slight drag on the Israeli ability to strike Iran and the Palestinians with impunity. The destruction of the Hizbullah arsenal may be the precursor of even more drastic action against the Palestinians and perhaps a bombing raid on Iran's nuclear research facilities near Isfahan.
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http://www.juancole.com/

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was that the Israeli soldiers may have gone into Lebanon - where they were captured.

It could have easily been a provoking type of situation.

And there are other means of provocation, as well - if a country wants an excuse to get things going.


Such things are fairly typical in Invasions/Wars. The side that starts it invariably comes up with some excuse. I don't see the kidnapping of 2 soldiers as any kind of reasonable excuse for Israel's aggression in Lebanon. Obviously a lot of people do, however.


Propaganda works.

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It sounds like understanding the business about "Sheba Farms" is part of it.

It's war by any other name
By Sami Moubayed

...In this week's events in Lebanon, the one set of parties, which include Syria, the Palestinians, Iran, Arab nationalists in the Middle East and North Africa, along with jihadi Muslims in the Muslim World, believe that escalation is the only solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict.

They claim that the Arabs tried to talk peace with the Israelis after the Palestinians signed a peace agreement with Israel in 1993, and ended up with nothing. They say that war is correct, justified morally, politically and religiously. To them, it is legitimate self-defense. They back this argument by saying that Israel still controls the Sheba Farms, which are part of Lebanon, and still has Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails. Also, they add that the Israeli tank destroyed by Hezbollah, and the soldiers captured and killed on July 12, had trespassed into Lebanon's side of the border with Israel.

They argue that if the Arab world cannot fight Israel, then the least Arab countries can do is permit -or facilitate - a proxy war with Israel through the Hezbollah resistance in Lebanon.


....It all started on July 12 when Israel troops were ambushed on Lebanon's side of the border with Israel. Hezbollah, which commands the Lebanese south, immediately seized on their crossing. They arrested two Israeli soldiers, killed eight Israelis and wounded over 20 in attacks inside Israeli territory.

This unleashed hell in Israel, and Olmert immediately responded by mounting a war on Lebanon. A sea, air and ground blockade was enforced on Lebanon, and a systematic destruction of Lebanon's infrastructure was began.

Hezbollah responded by wounding 11 Israelis with Katyusha-style rockets fired on the town of Safad in northern Israel. Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah gave a press conference hours after the hostilities started. He was confident, articulate, strong and very defiant, as usual, saying that this operation aimed at getting the Israelis to release Lebanese prisoners from their jails....

Damaging his credibility was a statement by Lebanon's ambassador to the United States, Farid Abbud, who spoke on CNN and demanded a prisoner exchange between Hezbollah and Israel, adding that Israel must return the occupied Sheba Farms to Lebanon.

His statements gave the impression that the Lebanese government, which he was officially representing, approved of the kidnapping and was echoing the demands of Nasrallah....

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HG15Ak02.html

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both sides - before they can have any idea what the truth is.


What say of you about the Sheba Farms?

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Syrian News:




UAE opinions:



From Israel:




I sure don't have any reason to believe US news or Israelis news over any other.

My sense of it is that Israel ought to leave the Sheba Farms. And that they would if were serious about peace.

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to think that they are any better than anyone else.

Like how they give the impression that the Israel is being harmed more - when the deaths are easy to calculate - whether you are talking inside Israel/Palestine or with the current conflict.

If you think that that Israel suffers more than the Palestinians in general - or in the last couple weeks - you are not getting any sort of balanced reporting.

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Do you say that they are lying?


Human Rights Concerns

"The human rights situation in Israel and the Occupied Territories continues to deteriorate. Some 3,700 Palestinians – most of them unarmed and including over 600 children – have been killed by the Israeli army and settlers, and almost 1,000 Israelis – most of them civilians and including more than 100 children – have been killed by Palestinians since the start of the current uprising (Intifada) in September 2000. In addition, Palestinians living under Israeli military occupation in The West Bank and Gaza Strip are subject to a wide range of human rights violations."

http://www.amnestyusa.org/countries/israel_and_occupied_territories/index.do


Israel/Occupied Territories: Civilian population at risk in Gaza

Amnesty International today urged the Israeli government to immediately cease attacks against Palestinian civilians and civilian property and infrastructure, and to take action to address the growing humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.

The organization condemned attacks such as those carried out by Israeli forces on the night of 11-12 July 2006, when an entire family -- Nabil and Salwa Abu Salmiya and their seven children aged between seven and 17 -- were killed when the Israeli Air Force targeted their home in a densely populated residential district in Jabaliya, north of Gaza City. More than 30 other residents were injured in the attack.

Israeli officials stated that the air strike had targeted Muhammad Deif, a leader of Hamas’s armed wing, who was reported to have been in the building at the time and to have been injured in the attack. However, the Israeli government and military officials who ordered and carried out the air attack on the house at about 02:30 am must have known that Nabil Abu Salmiya, a university lecturer and a Hamas member, and his wife and children, would be present at their home and that they and residents of neighbouring houses would be killed and injured.

Such attacks against civilians are prohibited by international law and Amnesty International called for them to cease immediately.

In recent weeks dozens of Palestinians women, children and other bystanders have been killed and hundreds have been injured by Israeli forces in air strikes and artillery shelling -- including in their homes...

Jul 14, 2006
http://www.amnestyusa.org/countries/israel_and_occupied_territories/document.do?id=ENGMDE150652006

pretty much exclusively by Hezbollah said this early on.

But they didn't repeat it, and it wasn't repeated up the food chain. The story gets recirculated from time to time, but apart from the initial report, it's only echoed by small papers that need to show themselves worth buying by being contrarian.

Sometimes contrarian reports are right; usually they're not.

May they all rot in hell.

First a link to my post that has a link loindelrio post
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2735918&mesg_id=2735918

Juan Cole knows a helluva lot more than I do, but I think he has his blinders on here. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah was a long time coming. Both sides knew it was on the way, and have been preparing for it. Hezbollah is not some plucky little group of liberation fighters. They are a well trained and well armed militia under the sway of Iran. No sovereign state can allow it's citizens to be threatened by a force like Hezbollah. This is not some made up threat like Iraq was for us. Hezbollah has been firing missiles into the Hula valley and Galilee for quite some time.
Is Israel's response disproportionate? I don't know. But to think that any country would put up with this is crazy.

BTW- While Hezbollah is part of the greater Arab struggle against Israel. To the best of my knowledge, most are (please someone correct me if I'm wrong)not Palestinian Thus this conflict is only tangentially involved with the Israel/Palestinian conflict.

if you know about "Sheba Farms". Cole mentioned them and I didn't really catch it. It sounds like they are a key part of the conflict.


See this post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=224062&mesg_id=224075

in addition to what's been said upstream, the chronology of them as an issue is pertinent.

They weren't mentioned. During the 50s and 60s and 70s and 80s and 90s ... not a problem. When Syria held them, they were Syrian. When Israel took them over, Syria had no problem including them in the language of the ceasefire signed with Israel in '74 or so.

Lebanon didn't care about them when Israel was withdrawing. They weren't an issue.

But all the militias in Lebanon were disarming, except for Hezbollah. It became an issue: with no occupation, "resistance" is a very strange idea. But Hezbollah justified its pro-Syrian existence by wanting to be the resistance.

A couple of months after the withdrawal was complete and disarming Hezbollah was the issue in Lebanese politics, the Shebaa Farms surfaced. Huge issue, the resistance could continue, the Jews lied again, the occupation wasn't over.

The UN looked at it, and said, "Naw." While Lebanon was a de facto part of Syria, nobody cared, the status quo was fine; Lebanon and Syria both said they were Lebanese, but nobody else did. Then the Syrians pulled out, and Lebanon requested that Syria legitimize the Lebanese claims over the Shebaa Farms. Complete a formal act of transfer, register the border change with the UN.

Syria said no. Why should that be? I can only think of one substantive reason.

--allow itself to be threatened by Israel?

Israel is very good at emotional propaganda -- lots of well meaning people buy into the Israeli propaganda.

I wonder if these well meaning people realize that Israel is being used??? by the same neocon thugs who are leading bushie around by the nose??

But since Israel has long had this "do not touch, do not criticize" status -- no one will question them like they do the US leaders.

The neocons are just as active trying to get Israel to march to the neocon tune -- as they are in US politics. In reading some of the neocon material -- I found that the neocons don't like the socialism of Israel -- they'd like that the change.

For some interesting reading related to the neocon's view of Israel go here:

http://www.iasps.org

then for the current war go here:

http://www.iasps.org/strat1.htm

This war is not what it seems --

My pet theory -- this is bushie's newest war -- and he won't have to take the blame -- but he gets to watch all the secret war videos -- you know the ones of people dying in new and horrible ways from the new bombs invented and made in the USA.

Put the blame for this war on bush and the neocons -- stop fighting with each other. This is what the neocons want you to do.

I do so believe Israel has done the same thing.

It's hardly surprising that the IDF planned for this conflict "over a year ago". That is what any effective military does - identify likely threats and draft plans for dealing with that conflict should it come to a head.

Unfortunately the more Israel pounds Hezbollah from the air and on the ground, the following will continue
a) Lebanese civilians will die, creating more hatred of Israel and more support for Hezbollah
b) The more Hezbollah increases in stature and legitimacy, behing the plucky target of the renowned Israeli military
c) Hezbollah may or may not be weakend in the short run, though it appears they were way more prepared for this counterstrike than anyone, including Israel, thought.

So while after another week, more hundreds of deaths, more rockets into Israel, they may quell this generation of Hezbollah for a few years or so, but the next generation of Hezbollah has been recruited. Its a terrible dilemma for Israel - should they just let their soldiers be abducted and tolerate rockets into their lands?

Seems to me they should have had a much more measured initial response to Hezbollah and only step up to a full on assault after the world came to understand what is going on.

But also what is shameful is how the people of the occupied territories continue to languish in deplorable conditions after 40 some odd years of occupation. And nothing will improve there until that changes.