<snip>
Meanwhile, of the issues left unresolved, the economy is the most threatening to Bush's popularity. A soaring stock market and an anaemic recovery in employment have alleviated the fear prevalent in the country (and the White House) this autumn. But there is no escape from deficits in the government budget and in trade. Bush is mother of one and midwife to the other. Together they could pull the US into the same financial hole that made Britain an IMF client 27 years ago - and before next year's election.
The dollar has already lost a third of its value against the euro. The decline could accelerate as the world loses confidence in the ability of the US to repay its massive and increasing debts. As a result, the dollars being paid to oil suppliers and to Chinese manufacturers are also declining in value. Might China revalue its currency? Could the oil industry shift to a euro-based pricing system? Either could send American inflation soaring, driving up interest rates. The bond and stock markets would crash. So would house prices and consumer spending.
Bush has engaged in a campaign of voter bribery in the past two years unrivalled in US history. The tax cuts came first, a gift to corporate and upper-income America that will hobble the country for a generation or more. And there were breathtaking increases in farm subsidies to buy loyalty in the heartland.
Illegal tariffs in 2002 on steel imports bought support from coal miners, railway workers and steel unions in the critical states of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Proposals last month for duties on Chinese textiles were intended to purchase the loyalty of low-wage workers in Georgia and the Carolinas - even if they offended a nation emerging as one of America's biggest bankers.
<snip>
Bush campaigners were already at work over the weekend trying to imply that Saddam's arrest makes Bush a shoo-in, a line they promoted in the Florida recounts three years ago. This time, their biggest opponent may be the bond markets, not the Democrats. The odds look a long way short of a sure thing.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1107866,00.html