http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/7212War Is Over! (If Bush Wants It, and He Doesn't Seem To)
by Randolph T Holhut | May 2 2007 - 1:05pm
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But Reid is only stating the obvious. From a military standpoint, there is no strategic reason for the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq. The only people who don't seem to realize this are President Bush and his administration. They cling to the tired and totally false theme that if U.S. forces leave, Iraq will turn into an al-Qaida stronghold.
There is little to back that up. By most reliable estimates, there are only about 1,000 foreign fighters in Iraq. Virtually all of the violence in Iraq directed against U.S. forces is being committed by Iraqis, mainly the Sunni minority, the people who ran Iraq under Saddam Hussein.
The Sunnis believe the United States has engaged in a systematic campaign of repression at the behest of the joint Shiite-Kurdish government of Nouri al-Maliki. Thus, more and more Sunnis see violence as the only option.
Secondly, does anyone truly believe that Turkey, Jordan, Iran or Saudi Arabia would want such an al-Qaida-dominated country on their borders? The Shiite and Kurdish Iraqis aren't exactly wild about the idea of an al-Qaida dominated Iraq either.
What could happen if the United States quit Iraq is not an al-Qaida takeover, but a regional proxy war. Turkey is prepared to invade if the Kurds declare independence. Saudi Arabia is prepared to intervene if it believes the Sunni Iraqis are in danger. Likewise, Iran is ready to get even more involved in Iraq if their Shiite allies are threatened.
We are now seeing a civil war in which U.S. troops are trapped in the middle. For the Shiite majority and their Kurdish allies, as long as U.S. troops are around to keep the Sunnis down, there is no need for compromise. Without accommodation, the civil war will continue.
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