Attn. Dems: Dean can’t beat Bush (from Kerry advisor)

http://www.thehill.com/mellman/010704.aspx

The Hill
January 7, 2004


Perhaps the pre-eminent symbol of Dean’s severe general-election problem is his standing in New Hampshire. Nowhere, outside of Vermont, is he better-known. Nowhere else has Dean spent as much money, time and energy courting voters. He has catapulted himself into a significant lead in the Democratic primary.

But recent polling makes it clear that despite all the ads, despite all the time he has spent and the press coverage he has generated, Dean is in desperate straits in a New Hampshire general election where he trails Bush by an astounding 27 points (57 percent Bush, 30 percent Dean). And this is a state Bill Clinton won and a state Al Gore lost by only 7,211 votes. But Dean has alienated all those who do not identify as Democrats. Less than 1 percent of Republicans would vote for Dean, while 14 percent of Democrats support Bush. Most troubling is the fact that Dean garners only 11 percent among swing independents (undeclared) while Bush gets 63 percent of this vote. Moreover, this poll predates the capture of Saddam Hussein.

Dean’s serious troubles are evident in a variety of other states as well. Florida is central, but Dean loses by 23 points. Arizona is a state we hope to bring into the Democratic column in ‘04, but Dean lags 15 points behind Bush. Democrats always hope for Ohio, but Bush has a 19-point advantage over Dean.

Dean says he hopes to make gains in the South, but his clumsy handling of the Confederate flag issue has only made that goal more elusive. He is 21 points behind Bush in Virginia and 22 points behind in North Carolina.

Dean’s desperate general election straits also are clearly evident in national polls. A Washington Post poll at the end of December showed a generic Democrat trailing Bush by just 9 points (50 percent to 41 percent) while Dean trails Bush by 18 points (55 percent to 37 percent). Among independents, a generic Democrat trails Bush by 12 points (50 percent to 38 percent) while Dean loses to Bush by 21 points (56 percent to 35 percent).

The recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows Bush having opened up a 23-point lead over Dean, while NBC/Wall Street Journal pegs Dean’s deficit at 21 points. CBS found Bush 20 points ahead.

Some may counter with another poll taken over New Year’s weekend that shows Dean much closer. I frankly wouldn’t pay any attention at all to one poll, taken on one of the worst polling days imaginable. Moreover, those same sponsors released a poll yesterday showing Bush with a 22-point lead over Dean.

Mark S. Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982.

Can you provide proof that this man was writing this for Kerry or that they are associated?

edited to change tone of question

Here is a partial post from a Google search I just did.

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/releases/pr_2003_1023.html

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Kerry Surging in Iowa Poll


October 23, 2003

For Immediate Release

A Mellman Group (D) poll; conducted 10/13 for Sen. John Kerry (D-MA); surveyed 500 likely 1/19 IA caucus-goers;
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There are a lot more matches (CNN transcripts, etc) if you would like to google them.

http://www.hillnews.com/campaign/080603_mellman.aspx

AUGUST 6, 2003

MARK MELLMAN

Reading into the polling numbers

I should disclose that I have an interest in what follows; Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) is my client. But that does not change the facts...

He must have them if Kerry is his client. Why isn't he releasing these?