Iraq following the Somalia model

Many people think that Iraq will become a satellite state of Iran and provide a forum for an Iran/Shiite alliance to fight a Saudi/Jordan/Sunni alliance, while the Kurdish north splits off. I don’t share this view. Iraq will follow the Somalia model, becoming a catalyst for regional destabilization in the Middle East.

Why? Iraq is primarily a tribal society rather than a Muslim society split along Sunni/Shia lines. Iran is also a Persian country, not an Arab country, and the only reason that the Shias are siding with Iran now is because the US is in Iraq. Once we leave, the old Persian/Arab rift will widen, and Iraqi Shias will split from Iran.

Iraq’s tribalism mirror’s Somalia’s tribalism, with rival militias taking support from various neighboring countries to attack other militias and other neighboring countries. The outcome in the Middle East will be higher oil prices, increased anti-Western sentiment, and attacks against our allied governments in the Middle East.

The only way the US can win this is by supporting our allied governments, like the House of Saud, Abdullah II, and Perez Musharraf. When I say “allied,” I mean governments who also want regional stability in the Middle East.

jr stumbled in there with his BVD's wrapped around his ankles AND they seemed pretty US friendly too in spite of the shit we heaped on them. What we have now that the places has been "bushed" is anybodies guess.

The problem is that Somalia finally achieved peace under a different tribal structure, Islamists. The way many get 'above' their tribal allegiances is through allegiance to their believes, however heinous some of them are.

This is quite parallel to Gaza, where society was also very tribal. And yet Hamas isn't an exponent of a single tribe. But Hamas forms a tribe, every bit as much as the Dulaimis in Iraq or the Daghmoushes in Gaza.

So, yeah, you can get a failed state with a piss-poor life expectancy, making sure that people hate you because they rely on you for basic foodstuffs and the like, it strips them of their honor. But that's only until some thugs come along, then the society falls one little piece at a time until finally all you're left with is medieval oppression and the occasional genocide, theological reasons for xenophobia, arrogance, and murder. But hey, it's civilization, no worse than America, to be sure. Right?

Then again, there's nothing keeping Iran from being the 'thugs' or arming/training the 'thugs'. After all, they're a major supplier for Hamas, the Islamists in Somalia, Hezbollah, and those "charities" aren't on their border. But, no, that would mean your thesis leads you precisely into what can't possibly be accepted. So instead I'm sure Iran will concentrate in the Maldives as civil war spills over their border.