Iraq surge can't last past Aug. '08: Pentagon cannot sustain force levels beyond next summer

Boston Globe: Analysts say Iraq surge can't last past Aug. '08
By Bryan Bender, Globe Staff | August 30, 2007

WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon cannot sustain its current force levels in Iraq beyond next summer, effectively giving the Bush administration and the Iraqi government until the middle of 2008 to capitalize on recent security improvements before the US military must draw down its forces, according to US military officials and foreign policy analysts.

When the 15-month combat tours end for the nearly 30,000 additional US troops President Bush sent to Iraq earlier this year to secure the country, the Army will be unable to replace them without damaging morale or troop readiness, senior Army officials say. Those forces will complete their tours during the spring and summer of 2008, according to Army deployment schedules.

A report says Iraq missed all but three benchmarks.

Keeping 160,000 troops in Iraq beyond the middle of next year would require the Army to reduce further the amount of time troops spend at home -- already scaled back from two years to less than 12 months in some cases -- before sending them back to the combat zone. But Army Secretary Peter Geren, the service's top official, recently said he sees "no possibility" of extending the duty tours of US troops beyond 15 months.

These are the critical on-the-ground constraints as the White House and Congress prepare to receive a much-anticipated September progress report, which will probably fuel the debate over the war. The practical limits on current troop deployments have led military officials and analysts to warn that there will be a window of less than 12 months for the military to show sustained, and sustainable, success -- and for the Iraqi government to fashion a political settlement between warring factions.

By then, they said, the White House will have little choice but to phase down the American military commitment in Iraq....

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2007/08/30/analysts_say_iraq_surge_cant_last_past_aug_08/

Bush likely has no plans to leave the White House in 2008, it's not as if reinstating conscription will hurt his chances for re-election. Hell, the prospect of an election never bothered him anyway! He's been in the White House for about seven years now, and he was never elected to that!