Trinkets and Treasure, China Tames the US (great article from Asia Times)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/IH31Ad02.html

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The relations of China and the US over Taiwan have been governed by the "Shanghai Communique", signed at the end of president Richard Nixon's historic trip to Beijing in 1972. This had the US in essence denying Taiwan's claim that it was a separate state independent from China, in return for vague Chinese assurances that it would not force the issue militarily.

Very few observers believe that China will just tear up the Shanghai Communique and invade without provocation. However, if Taiwan did commit some provocation that questioned China's sovereignty over the island, if the situation were ambiguous enough, China just might send its fleet across the Taiwan Strait.

The only force that could check this move would be the US military, both the US Navy's 7th Fleet, based in Yokosuka, Japan, and the Pacific Air Force, primarily operating out of bases in Japan and South Korea.

Here can be seen the true genius of the Chinese plan to subdue the US with trinkets and treasure. To counter the US militarily would be hugely expensive, and probably beyond China's current technological capacity. Far better to do it the way it has, with trade. The Chinese could have America's industrial elite, fearing a shutoff of the China wealth spigot, whisper in the ears of American policymakers that they should lay off any military countering of a Chinese move against Taiwan.

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