Norman Podhoretz: Dark Suspicions about the NIE

Dark Suspicions about the NIE
Norman Podhoretz

A new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), entitled “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities,” has just dealt a serious blow to the argument some of us have been making that Iran is intent on building nuclear weapons and that neither diplomacy nor sanctions can prevent it from succeeding. Thus, this latest NIE “judges with high confidence that in fall 2003 Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program”; it “judges with high confidence that the halt was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work”; it “assesses with moderate confidence that Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007”; it assesses, also with only “moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program”; but even if not, it judges “with high confidence that Iran will not be technically capable of producing and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015.”

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But I entertain an even darker suspicion. It is that the intelligence community, which has for some years now been leaking material calculated to undermine George W. Bush, is doing it again. This time the purpose is to head off the possibility that the President may order air strikes on the Iranian nuclear installations. As the intelligence community must know, if he were to do so, it would be as a last resort, only after it had become undeniable that neither negotiations nor sanctions could prevent Iran from getting the bomb, and only after being convinced that it was very close to succeeding. How better, then, to stop Bush in his tracks than by telling him and the world that such pressures have already been effective and that keeping them up could well bring about “a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program”—especially if the negotiations and sanctions were combined with a goodly dose of appeasement or, in the NIE’s own euphemistic formulation, “with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways.”

If this is what lies behind the release of the new NIE, its authors can take satisfaction in the response it has elicited from the White House. Quoth Stephen Hadley, George W. Bush’s National Security Adviser: “The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically—without the use of force—as the administration has been trying to do.”

I should add that I offer these assessments and judgments with no more than “moderate confidence.”

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http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/podhoretz/1474

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Norm is a man of 'Dark suspicions' & darker motives. Rudy's 'Foreign Policy' advisor.

tree-hugging commie-pinko librul traitors...

Norm - have you been right on anything?

When Bushies get busted, they always blame the liberals.

Once again it is the SAME IDENTICAL REACTION, minus the violence and over racism.

When will people wake up?

The same time the German People in the Nazi Times woke up...long after it was too late and they were comitted to riding their Bushies to the end of whatever those German Bushies of the 1930s had planned.

I see it now. We will have to ride this thing out to the end, no matter what happens inthe 2008 "elections".

My head is spinning. (and no, not one artificial substance involved)

first, JOHN ASHCROFT is a hero to the constitution. WHO WOULD HAVE EVER BELIEVED THAT?

second, our intel agencies refused to bend to Cheney's will, and a long delayed NIE is released that puts the stake in their evil policieis, we repeat that emotion by being proud of the intel agencies?

unbelievable.

Although it is understandable why Podhoretz would alter the text a bit.

"Today the TASS news agency reported the arrest of a group of saboteur-doctors. This terrorist group, uncovered some time ago by organs of state security, had as their goal shortening the lives of leaders of the Soviet Union by means of medical sabotage.

Investigation established that participants in the terrorist group, exploiting their position as doctors and abusing the trust of their patients, deliberately and viciously undermined their patients' health by making incorrect diagnoses, and then killed them with bad and incorrect treatments. Covering themselves with the noble and merciful calling of physicians, men of science, these fiends and killers dishonored the holy banner of science. Having taken the path of monstrous crimes, they defiled the honor of scientists."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctors'_plot

Only when it undermines a crook.

Uh, yeah. Right.

Just like the last resort invasion of Iraq, huh?

Bzzzzzztttttt.

Thanks for playing, Norman. Now here's Johnny Olson to tell you about your consolation prizes!

The Dubya administration was told point blank that Iraq had no WMD's and nothing to do with 9/11, therefore they invaded Iraq.

Now they're being told that there's no weapons program in Iran in hopes that they won't invade Iran.

Am I missing something?

The guys a nut job..

... is it bad that the intelligence community issue this report:

1) because it's not true

or

2) because it undermines Bush

Because frankly, I don't give 2 shits if it undermines Bush. His lies have cost us enough already.