Guardian UK: Gen. Petraeus's declaration that the surge must go on will simply prolong the agony

The occupation has frozen Iraq. All else is tinkering
Yesterday's declaration by General Petraeus that the surge must go on will simply prolong the country's agony

Simon Jenkins
The Guardian, Wednesday April 9 2008


The British troops encamped outside Basra resemble Davy Crockett's colleagues in the Alamo. Nobody will come to their rescue. Their position is hopeless. They cannot win. They cannot escape. Their boss, the defence secretary Des Browne, has emphasised their political entombment by reneging on Gordon Brown's pledge to reduce their numbers by a half this spring. The American general, David Petraeus, yesterday said the same of his troops. He wants 140,000 of them to remain at the end of the current surge, dashing hopes that their numbers might come down. The occupation of Iraq is now officially indefinite. Too many politicians have too much to lose by contemplating retreat.

Reports from Iraq indicate that the military operations of the past two weeks in Basra and Baghdad were treated by the Americans (or at least by the vice-president, Dick Cheney, who visited Baghdad last month) as a milestone in the occupation of Iraq. Coalition spokesmen were to declare themselves in the dark, indicating Iraq's ability to look after itself and thus vindicating the 2006 surge policy.

The military objective of the policy was clear. The "awakening" movement divided the Sunnis into good guys and bad guys and has largely worked, backing to the hilt any gunmen likely to hold al-Qaida influence in check. A policy of ghetto-isation in Baghdad has kept Sunnis and Shias apart and reduced the body count.

Phase two was aimed at the Shias. The prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, was told to show his ability to end the emerging civil war within the Shia community. On the one side were the trained Mahdist irregulars of Moqtada al-Sadr, on the other a ramshackle alliance of an unreliable army, a corrupt police and various Badr militias loyal to the moderate Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. If Maliki could not put an end to Sadr's chaotic insurrection, progress in Iraq would be inconceivable.

The assault on Sadr's forces was double-pronged, intended to end their presence in Basra since the British withdrawal, and to suppress their stronghold of Sadr City in Baghdad. Maliki showed considerable bravery in going to Basra two weeks ago to oversee the assault of his troops on the rebels. But the operation failed, leaving some 500 dead and only an agreed ceasefire. .....(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/09/iraq.usa1