How much oil is there really?

What is the "right" price for a barrel of oil?

Japan's oil minister has said, based on fundamentals, that the price of crude should be $60 a barrel, not the $130 to $140 we see today.

During congressional testimony, five oil-industry CEOs each gave estimates of where oil "ought" to be, with results ranging from $35 to $65 a barrel up to $90.

Even the implacable Saudis are reportedly about to increase production by half a million barrels a day, a sign that they are concerned that the current price is too high.

Yet BP's (BP, news, msgs) chief recently said current price levels are warranted, and the oil bulls at Goldman Sachs forecast a "super spike" to $150 to $200 a barrel.

How can presumed experts be so divided? Because the data on oil stink.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/HowMuchOilIsThereReally.aspx

While there is ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco, ConocoPhillips, and Royal Dutch/Shell.

Instead of Exxon, Mobil, Chevron, Texaco, Conoco, Phillips, Royal Dutch, and Shell.

for open market is the whatever it is; it's a market price. And it will keep rising as long as open market functions.

But no worry, open market will close in about 5 to 10 years and after that there will only bilateral trade based on political alliences etc, with bilaterally negotiated prices (cf. Venezuela and Cuba).

That is a unique advantage they have in the market, and is the reason that oil isn't effectively a market commodity. (it is only in pretense) Only the oil companies have the resources to even make estimations of how much oil is still left in their fields - there is no unbiased, unbought-off government organization there to say "No, the amount of oil in that field is actually 100 million barrels, not 10 million as you claim."

Which leads to the question: is Peak Oil real? We will never know.