Phil Gramm: Wrong even when he's right.
by Matthew Hubbard | July 11, 2008
Phil Gramm, respected elder statesman, husband to a board member of dead and rotting Enron, economic advisor to the near dead and bad smelling McCain presidential campaign, took some heat for calling Americans "a nation of whiners" (he says he just meant the leaders, not the people, who obviously he loves) and that we were in a "mental recession".
Let me say this, here on a left wing blog. There is no recession yet, and there may not be one now at the end of the Bush presidency. Recession means two quarters of negative growth in a row, and that benchmark has not been reached.
What we have is stagflation, a word I first heard in the 1970's, when Jimmy Carter ran successfully against Gerald Ford's economic record and Ronald Reagan ran successfully against Jimmy Carter's economic record. High oil prices were the culprit then, and they are the most likely suspect now.
The sluggish economic growth that we have seen for more than a year now can be attributed to some parts of our very large economy growing like a cancer on other parts. The most obvious example of this is the great success of the oil industry part of our economy strangling the airline industry and making it tougher on the auto industry, who still haven't wrapped their heads around the idea that good gas mileage might be good for business.
Having followed some economic trends closely, especially commodity prices and currency exchanges, the markets act like the public does, startled by the crossing of thresholds. In mid March, the dollar was taking a pounding at every turn. A British pound cost over two American dollars. A Canadian dollar was worth more than a dollar. In that month, the yen went back to being worth more than a penny for the first time in several years, and silver went over $20 an ounce for the first time in decades. March saw two historic firsts happen: the Swiss franc went over a dollar and gold sold for $1,000 an ounce.
Then, the market took a deep breath and started showing the dollar some love. The pound fell under two bucks, the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc drew back, the yen fell seriously and so did gold and silver. The dollar was holding its own.
Except in comparison to crude oil.
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http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/15793