The End Of Aviation-What will happen when America can't afford to fly?

The End Of Aviation by Bradford Plumer
What will happen when America can't afford to fly?
Post Date Wednesday, August 27, 2008


As the age of cheap oil comes to a close, it's springtime for gloomy futurists. Visions of a brutish world marked by violent squabbles over dwindling reserves, of junkyards littered with abandoned cars, of suburban slums overrun by weeds, of the collapse of industrial agriculture--none of this sounds as outlandish as it once did. Still, most of these horror stories are likely overstated: Energy experts tend to agree that, with a little ingenuity and a generous helping of political will, we could transition away from fossil fuels without being forced to give up our modern lifestyles.

But there's one big exception--an area where a post-carbon world really could mean a radical shift in the way we live. That's the world of commercial flight.

Early signs of an aviation apocalypse are already upon us. As oil prices flirt with $130 per barrel and the dollar struggles, airlines are paying nearly 80 percent more for fuel than they did a year ago. Twenty-five airlines have gone belly-up this year--three to four times the usual yearly rate. Major carriers like American, Northwest, and United, still reeling from the industry downturn after September 11, go barely a month without announcing layoffs and capacity cuts.

And it gets worse from there. Despite recent fluctuations, a growing number of economists are bracing for oil to hit or surpass $200 per barrel in a few years, and most industry analysts agree with Douglas Runte, of RBS Greenwich Capital, who told The Wall Street Journal in June, "Many airline business models cease to work at $135-a-barrel oil prices." After all, most airlines barely figured out how to be profitable in a world of low fuel costs. Jeff Rubin, chief economist of Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets, has predicted that gasoline will hit $7 per gallon by 2010, forcing some 10 million cars in the United States off the road. If that happens, he told me, "You're going to see an even bigger exit in the airline industry."

As if one plague wasn't enough, the threat of climate change could mean further doom for airlines. In Great Britain, green groups are lobbying hard in favor of aviation fuel taxes and against a proposed third runway at Heathrow Airport, wewhile activist groups, like one called Plane Stupid, have taken to unfurling banners from atop Westminster Palace and elsewhere with slogans like WE FLY, WE DIE. They argue that, at a time when greenhouse gases are pushing global temperature to perilous levels, flying--one of the most energy-intensive forms of travel around--is a luxury the planet simply can't afford. (While aviation currently accounts for just 3 percent of man-made carbondioxide emissions, it's one of the fastest-growing sources, and the true climate impact of flight is around 2.7 times that of carbon dioxide alone, thanks to the added warming effects of nitrogen-oxide emissions and jet contrails.)

As a result of this advocacy, a social stigma against flying is slowly spreading across Europe. While air travel isn't covered by the Kyoto Protocol, the next round of climate-treaty talks will likely address the issue, and the EU has recently announced that it will bring aviation into its emissions-trading regime--forcing airlines to pay for 15 percent of their carbon use starting in 2012. "That's the real deal," says Bill Swelbar, a research engineer at MIT's International Center for Air Transportation. "When you look at some of the taxes and fees being discussed in Europe, we might as well bankrupt our industry today." John Whitelegg, a transportation expert at York University's Stockholm Environment Institute, estimates that requiring airlines to pay the full environmental costs of flight could raise fares as much as five-fold.

more...

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=78260c55-a850-478f-9ffd-b8023fd89459

it's not just people who will be grounded, think of the "things" we fly from here to there, etc

It's funny, at the same time we are recognizing that we are a GLOBAL ecosystem, our resources and ability to travel is making our PERSONAL world smaller & smaller.

At least on this one, I am ahead of the curve! lol
I haven't flown since Jan 2001, mostly due to cost and the inability to get away from my kids for more than a day at any given time. But honestly, I don't want to go through the security crap anyway...I have lived in a rural area for the past 15 years and have gotten into the habit of not "leaving the hill" except for major dr appts or rare shopping trips - in which case I usually am sharing the ride with a family member or friend.

The implications of people not being able to just hop on a plane at a moment'e notice won't affect me personally, but it is stil significant to observe. Will Air force one be retooled to be a propeller/hybrid type plane? Will small avaiation take back the skies?

very interesting times, the world is changing in the blink of an eye

and I often wonder if our ability to adapt is too slow

edit typos, not enough coffee

American Airlines fined $7.1 million for safety violations.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TRAVEL/08/14/american.airlines.faa/index.html

snip...


(CNN) -- Federal regulators announced $7.1 million in fines against American Airlines on Thursday over maintenance issues and problems with its drug- and alcohol-testing programs.


"The FAA believes the large total amount of the fine for these violations is appropriate because American Airlines was aware that appropriate repairs were needed, and instead deferred maintenance," the Federal Aviation Administration said in a statement announcing the decision. "In intentionally continuing to fly the aircraft, the carrier did not follow important safety regulations intended to protect passengers and crew."

American can still appeal the fines, the FAA said.

The FAA also found the airline maintained inadequate drug- and alcohol-testing programs and failed to inspect safety lighting on a "timely" basis.

===

As their balance sheets continue take a hit, stories like this will become more commonplace.

....of course GWBushie for robbing this country of its wealth and savings account.....The Air Traffic Control system is partly to blame as well...it is 40 year old technology.......try flying into any New York city airport on any given day....you will be greeted with a ground stop or major delay....or better yet your flight being canceled.......

We have a few nice trains, we need a lot more of them!

Looks like I'll have to learn boatbuilding.

Short-hop flights are incredibly wasteful, since they use most of their fuel just getting off the ground.
The longer the flight, the more efficient airplanes become.

The European carriers are doing better because most European short-hops are by train, and European
cities have good connections between their rail system and their airports.

Grounding the planes after 9/11 really changed weather patterns around here. All those contrails used to make clouds and rain for us.

Influenza epidemics will attenuate.

Fuel prices will decline further.

Politics will become local again.

People will read newspapers more, maybe.