THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, August 17 – Obama 306, McCain 232

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, August 17, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote and National Polls
6. Probabilities and Potentials
7. State Poll Averages Comparison
8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls
11. Sources and Links





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1. Current Stats

With only 79 days remaining until the election, Barack Obama’s indices have fallen to their lowest point in the past two months. His electoral vote projection has dropped from 344 a week ago to 306 today, and his lead in the swing states has diminished to a close 2%. This post shows what a 51% to 49% lead looks like. It ain’t pretty.

States moving to the left this week are: Alaska (3), Maine (4) and Oregon (7). States moving to the right this week are: Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13) and Washington (11). Nevada and Virginia switched sides this week, while Colorado is now tied.


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 79 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 306
McCain – 232
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 58,838,000 … (46.4%) … (+2,190,018)
McCain – 56,647,982 … (44.7%)
Barr – 3,019,084 … (2.4%)
Nader – 1,428,918 … (1.1%)
McKinney – 126,721 … (0.1%)
Undecided/Other – 6,787,016 … (5.4%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 51.06%
McCain – 48.94%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 62,330,000 … (49.2%) … (+2,360,000)
McCain – 59,970,000 … (47.3%)
All Others – 3,901,000 … (3.5%)


Probability of Obama Win – 70.2% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 77.7%



^ FIGURE 1a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 1b. This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.


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2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 43.3% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 32.9%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error comes to about one-fourth of the total this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (51.1%-48.9%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 306, down from 344 last week.



^ FIGURE 2a. This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 2b. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.





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3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The states within the margin of error decreased 9 electoral votes this week, down from 137 electoral votes to 128 electoral votes. Alaska (3) and Minnesota (10) moved into the margin of error this week, while Oregon (7) and North Carolina (15) moved out.



^ FIGURE 3a. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate sorted into each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error and is referred to as “Lean.”


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4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was leading George W. Bush 327 electoral votes to 211 electoral votes, with 0 tied. John Kerry and John Edwards were at their peak four years ago today, but the tide would turn against them completely by this time the very next day. It would be five weeks until the next good news for the Kerry campaign as the first debate was scheduled for late September. In the meantime, the Republican convention was two weeks away, the Swift Boaters were lethal, and Kerry’s own convention bounce would wither away.

Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has 20 more Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. But Obama has about 40 fewer Weak electoral votes than Kerry had then. There are also about 5 less electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had about 20 more Strong electoral votes then.



^ FIGURE 4a. Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ FIGURE 4b. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 4c. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.


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5. Popular Vote and National Polls

Obama is currently projected to win 46.4% of the popular vote, and he is ahead of McCain by 1.7%. Barr is taking 2.4% of the vote, while Nader is polling at 1.1% and McKinney is polling at 0.1%. The percentage of Undecideds drops again this week to 5.4%. Factoring in the swing states to get an idea how the Undecideds will vote, Obama’s projected popular vote lead increases to 1.9%.

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Trend lines for Obama’s lead in Gallup Daily Tracking, Rasmussen Daily Tracking and Real Clear Politics Average continue to drop this week. Looking at all these sources together, however, we can see that Obama’s lead in the popular vote ranges between -0.4% (McCain over Obama) and +2.8% (Obama over McCain), according to the trends revealed by the national polls.



^ FIGURE 5a. This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126,750,000 votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 5b. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.



^ FIGURE 5c. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions. The scale is between 0 and 126.75 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 63,375,000 votes. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 5d. The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.



^ FIGURE 5e. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.



^ FIGURE 5f. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.


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6. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 67.1%, while McCain’s potential advantage is 56.7%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +10.4% (down from +13.2% last week). McCain’s potential advantage rose by 0.6 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage dropped by 2.2 percentage points.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 71.9% and Bush’s potential advantage was 53.0%. Kerry led Bush by +18.9% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +10.4% lead in potential advantages now. It’s important to note that at this point four years ago Kerry was at his highest maximum potential. His potentials would quickly drop after this point in 2004 due to the Swift Boat ads and his campaign would never recover from it.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 169 … (31.4%)
McCain – 112 … (20.8%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 233 … (43.3%)
McCain – 177 … (32.9%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 361 … (67.1%)
McCain – 177 … (30.7%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 233 … (43.3%)
McCain – 305 … (56.7%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 426 … (79.2%)
McCain – 112 … (20.8%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 169 … (31.4%)
McCain – 369 … (68.6%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.


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7. State Poll Averages Comparison

Obama’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 46.2% this week, which is the same as last week. Obama is behind Kerry’s finishing 46.5% state poll average, yet just ahead of where Gore finished in 2000 with 46.1%

McCain’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 44.9% this week, which is also the same as last week.

It’s interesting to note that only one candidate from either party in the past four presidential elections managed to reach a 50.0% poll average majority, and that was George W. Bush in 2004 (50.7%). All other final results from all parties ended below 50.0%.


Comparison of State Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 46.2%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)



^ FIGURE 7a. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the aggregate state poll averages for each candidate, and compares them to the final aggregate state poll averages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.


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8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama falls three percentage points to 44% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama stays even at 46%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 44.8% for Obama, which is a drop of 2.1% since last week. Obama is now tied with McCain in Gallup, and leading McCain by 1% in Rasmussen and by 3.0% in RCP. Our Wigand Electoral Average fell from 54.65 last week to 51.30 this week for Obama, as Virginia and Nevada moved back into McCain’s territory.

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 60.6, up from 60.1 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets fell from 62.9 to 61.7 this week.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states plummets 20.70 this week to 612.70 for Obama, yet it remains above the majority mark of 600.00. The states gaining ground in trading for Obama this week are: Iowa and Ohio. Nebraska stays put, while losses were incurred for Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Wisconsin. Obama is doing better than McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 51.1% to 48.9%. This is down 1.7 percentage points from last week for Obama.



^ FIGURE 8a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 8b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 8c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 8d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)


Alaska Obama 45, McCain 40, Nader 2 (Hays Research Group, 8/7, +/- 4.9, 400 RV)
Colorado Obama 48, McCain 44 (Public Policy Polling, 8/7, +/- 3.2, 933 LV)
Colorado Obama 48, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 8/13, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 41, McCain 44, Barr 3, Nader 2 (Rocky Mountain News, 8/13, +/- 4.5, 500 RV)
Florida Obama 44, McCain 48, Barr 2 (Insider Advantage, 8/11, +/- 5.0, 418 RV)
Iowa Obama 49, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 8/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Kansas Obama 41, McCain 55 (Rasmussen, 8/11, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Kentucky Obama 37, McCain 55 (Survey USA, 8/11, +/- 3.9, 636 LV)
Maine Obama 53, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 8/12, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota Obama 49, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 8/13, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nevada Obama 45, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 8/11, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New Jersey Obama 51, McCain 41 (Quinnipiac University, 8/10, +/- 2.6, 1468 LV)
North Carolina Obama 45, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 8/11, +/- 3.9, 655 LV)
North Carolina Obama 44, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 8/13, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Oregon Obama 52, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 8/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 46, McCain 41 (Franklin & Marshall College, 8/10, +/- 3.9, 641 RV)
Texas Obama 33, McCain 43, Barr 5, Nader 2 (University of Texas, 7/30, +/- 3.8, 668 RV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 48 (Survey USA, 8/10, +/- 3.9, 655 LV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 8/12, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 43, McCain 43 (Insider Advantage, 8/12, +/- 5.0, 416 LV)
Washington Obama 51, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 8/12, +/- 3.7, 718 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 47, McCain 42 (Strategic Vision, 8/10, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.


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10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls


States with Undecideds 10% or Greater:
1. Oklahoma – 18.9%
2. West Virginia – 16.4%
3. Tennessee – 11.8%
4. Pennsylvania – 11.1%
5. Utah – 10.3%


States with Outdated Polls (Older Than 35 days):
Delaware – Last Poll … 2/28
Hawaii – Last Poll … 2/28
Illinois – Last Poll … 7/8
Indiana – Last Poll … 6/23
Louisiana – Last Poll … 7/9
Maryland – Last Poll … 6/21
Rhode Island – Last Poll … 7/1
South Dakota – Last Poll … 7/9
Tennessee – Last Poll … 6/24
Utah – Last Poll … 6/19
Vermont – Last Poll … 2/28
West Virginia – Last Poll – 6/2
Wyoming – Last Poll … 5/21


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11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com


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As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

It's go time, and the Serious General Election starts now!

:hi:

The only way to win it is to work and donate. Everything is on the line this year!

:hi:

woot! :woohoo:

and a :bounce: for lil math dude!

now I'll have to go back and read the rest :)

:hi:

It's those Maine women, right? :D They'll carry it for Obama!

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:

Not doubting your numbers but considering McCain is running teh worst campaign I've seen in my entire life, Obama should have a bigger lead.

Well, if anyone thought that fundies would be open minded, then they deserve to be disappointed.

Good to hear from you, P=man. I've become rather dependent on my daily dose of numbers.

The fundies are Bush's rock solid base, they'd vote for Jack the Ripper if he had an (R) after his name.

I'm hoping what we're seeing is the awakening of the wishy-washy people, the 5 or 10 percent who will go back and forth between the two candidates for the next two months. They always seem to start with the republican candidate.

:hi:

Time to donate and volunteer.

Agreed! :hi:

The numbers are looking good enough to win this time, yes?

it is better to have strong electoral vote base solildly in hand and have the popular vote start a gradualy but consistent upward movement than to have a large lead and see it shrink while the news media comments endlessly about how he is losing his advantage.

If he were to pick up 2 points a week every week from now until the election would be perfect.