THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, August 24 – Obama 314, McCain 224

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, August 24, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote and National Polls
6. Probabilities and Potentials
7. State Poll Averages Comparison
8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls
11. Sources and Links





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1. Current Stats

With only 72 days remaining until the election, Barack Obama has added Senator Joe Biden to the ticket and has begun to fight back against the negative ads coming from the right. As the Democratic National Convention starts Monday and the Republican Convention begins a week from Monday, John McCain has found himself wondering how many homes he owns. The national polls are doing slightly better for Obama this week, and his indices overall are even with last week. Some indices rose, and some fell, but the progress chart is better for Obama this week than it was last week.

States moving to the left this week are: Georgia (15), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15) and Pennsylvania (21). States moving to the right this week are: Indiana (11), Missouri (11), New York (31) and Ohio (20). Indiana and Ohio were the only states to switch sides this week.


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 72 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 314
McCain – 224
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 58,432,104 … (46.1%) … (+777,996)
McCain – 57,654,108 … (45.5%)
Barr – 2,914,053 … (2.3%)
Nader – 1,514,710 … (1.2%)
McKinney – 126,721 … (0.1%)
Undecided/Other – 6,206,025 … (4.9%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 47.81%
McCain – 52.19%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 61,400,000 … (48.5%) … (+500,000)
McCain – 60,900,000 … (48.1%)
All Others – 4,421,000 … (3.4%)


Probability of Obama Win – 74.4% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 86.3%



^ FIGURE 1a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 1b. This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.


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2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 43.5% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 32.2%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error comes to about one-fourth of the total this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (trailing 47.8%-52.2%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 314, up from 306 last week.



^ FIGURE 2a. This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 2b. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.





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3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The states within the margin of error increased 3 electoral votes this week, up from 128 electoral votes to 131 electoral votes. New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15) and Pennsylvania (21) moved into the margin of error this week, while Indiana (11), Michigan (17) and Minnesota (10) moved out.



^ FIGURE 3a. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate sorted into each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error and is referred to as “Lean.”


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4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was leading George W. Bush 286 electoral votes to 233 electoral votes, with 19 tied. John Kerry’s electoral vote projection had plummeted by 41 in one week, and another 61 electoral votes had moved from his Strong and Weak columns into the margin of error. The Swift Boat ads were working against Kerry, and the Republican convention was only one week away.

Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has 36 more Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. And Obama has about 65 more Weak electoral votes than Kerry had then. There are also more than 100 fewer electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had about 35 more Strong electoral votes then.



^ FIGURE 4a. Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ FIGURE 4b. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 4c. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.


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5. Popular Vote and National Polls

Obama is currently projected to win 46.1% of the popular vote, and he is ahead of McCain by only 0.6%. Barr is taking 2.3% of the vote, while Nader is polling at 1.2% and McKinney is polling at 0.1%. The percentage of Undecideds drops again this week to 4.9%. Factoring in the swing states to get an idea how the Undecideds will vote, Obama’s projected popular vote lead decreases to 0.4%.

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Trend lines for Obama’s lead in Gallup Daily Tracking, Rasmussen Daily Tracking and Real Clear Politics Average begin an upturn this week. Looking at all these sources together, we can see that Obama’s lead in the popular vote ranges between +0.0% and +2.0%, according to the trends revealed by the national polls.



^ FIGURE 5a. This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126,750,000 votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 5b. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.



^ FIGURE 5c. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions. The scale is between 0 and 126.75 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 63,375,000 votes. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 5d. The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.



^ FIGURE 5e. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.



^ FIGURE 5f. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.


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6. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 67.8%, while McCain’s potential advantage is 56.5%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +11.3% (up from +10.4% last week). McCain’s potential advantage fell by 0.2 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage rose by 0.7 percentage points.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 70.8% and Bush’s potential advantage was 75.3% (up from 53.0% the previous week). Kerry trailed Bush by -4.5% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +11.3% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 138 … (25.7%)
McCain – 108 … (20.1%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 234 … (43.5%)
McCain – 173 … (32.2%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 365 … (67.8%)
McCain – 173 … (32.2%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 234 … (43.5%)
McCain – 304 … (56.5%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 430 … (79.9%)
McCain – 108 … (20.1%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 138 … (25.7%)
McCain – 400 … (74.3%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.


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7. State Poll Averages Comparison

Obama’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 45.8% this week, down 0.4% from last week. Obama is behind Kerry’s finishing 46.5% state poll average, and also behind Gore’s finishing 46.1% state poll average.

McCain’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 45.4% this week, up 0.5% from last week.

It’s interesting to note that only one candidate from either party in the past four presidential elections managed to reach a 50.0% poll average majority, and that was George W. Bush in 2004 (50.7%). All other final results from all parties ended below 50.0%.


Comparison of State Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 46.2%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)



^ FIGURE 7a. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the aggregate state poll averages for each candidate, and compares them to the final aggregate state poll averages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.


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8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama rises one percentage point to 46% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama jumps two points to 48%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 45.0% for Obama, which is an increase of 0.2% over last week. Obama is now leading McCain in Gallup by 2%, leading by 2% in Rasmussen and by 1.6% in RCP. Our Wigand Electoral Average fell from 51.30 last week to 49.81 this week for Obama, as Indiana moved back into McCain’s territory.

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 58.4, down from 60.6 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets rose from 61.7 to 61.8 this week.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states plummets 39.00 this week to 573.70 for Obama, dropping below the majority mark of 600.00 for the first time in more than 10 weeks. No states gained ground in trading for Obama this week. Michigan stays put, while losses were incurred for the remaining 11 states. Obama is trailing McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 47.8% to 52.2%. This is down 3.3 percentage points from last week for Obama.



^ FIGURE 8a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 8b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 8c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 8d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)


Arizona Obama 30, McCain 40, Nader 2 (Arizona State University, 8/16, +/- 4.9, 402 RV)
California Obama 54, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 8/20, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 46, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 8/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 46, McCain 47 (American Research Group, 8/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Georgia Obama 44, McCain 53, Barr 3 (Rasmussen, 8/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Illinois Obama 55, McCain 40 (Rasmussen, 8/12, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Indiana Obama 44, McCain 50 (Survey USA, 8/18, +/- 3.9, 645 LV)
Indiana Obama 43, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 8/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Iowa Obama 50, McCain 43 (University of Iowa, 8/13, +/- 3.9, 617 LV)
Kansas Obama 35, McCain 58 (Survey USA, 8/20, +/- 3.9, 641 LV)
Louisiana Obama 39, McCain 57 (Rasmussen, 8/17, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maryland Obama 53, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 8/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan Obama 46, McCain 39 (Detroit Free Press, 8/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Minnesota Obama 47, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 8/14, +/- 3.8, 682 LV)
Minnesota Obama 48, McCain 38, Barr 1, Nader 3 (MN Public Radio, 8/17, +/- 3.6, 763 LV)
Mississippi Obama 43, McCain 56 (Rasmussen, 8/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Missouri Obama 40, McCain 50 (Public Policy Polling, 8/17, +/- 3.6, 750 LV)
Nevada Obama 43, McCain 44, Barr 3, Nader 2 (Research 2000, 8/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 47, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 8/19, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 46, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 8/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Mexico Obama 48, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 8/20, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New York Obama 47, McCain 39 (Siena Research Institute, 8/14, +/- 3.9, 627 RV)
North Carolina Obama 40, McCain 46, Barr 2 (Civitas/TelOpinion, 8/17, +/- 4.2, 600 RV)
North Carolina Obama 43, McCain 45, Barr 5, Nader 1 (Insider Advantage, 8/19, +/- 4.0, 614 LV)
Ohio Obama 45, McCain 45 (Public Policy Polling, 8/14, +/- 3.2, 950 LV)
Ohio Obama 43, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 8/18, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 46, McCain 41 (Susquehanna Research, 8/14, +/- 3.7, 700 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 48, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 8/19, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Tennessee Obama 36, McCain 51 (Ayres McHenry & Associates, 8/12, +/- 4.4, 500 RV)
Tennessee Obama 35, McCain 60 (Rasmussen, 8/20, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.


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10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls


States with Undecideds 10% or Greater:
1. Oklahoma – 18.9%
2. West Virginia – 16.4%
3. New York – 11.4%
4. Utah – 10.3%


States with Outdated Polls (Older Than 35 days):
Arkansas – Last Poll … 7/15
Delaware – Last Poll … 2/28
Hawaii – Last Poll … 2/28
Rhode Island – Last Poll … 7/1
South Dakota – Last Poll … 7/9
Utah – Last Poll … 6/19
Vermont – Last Poll … 2/28
West Virginia – Last Poll – 6/2
Wyoming – Last Poll … 5/21


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11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com


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As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

We have Swingin' Joe Biden, the Convention and the kick off of the Real campaign.

Should be a lot of excitement. Phrign, Did you get to see the big show yesterday?

:hi: Good morning!

Yesterday was a mad house here in Springfield! We went to the rally but we couldn't even get close to the Old State Capitol Plaza where Obama and Biden were speaking, there were just too many people. My guess would be at least 30,000 people attended.

Two awesome speeches yesterday! I may be blind as a bat and couldn't see Obama and Biden from where we were, but everyone downtown could hear them speak.

I hadn't seen a post. Searched and didn't see anything. I even posted
a post "Hey, where's Phrigndumass?"

So glad you are here. I, and many, many others depend on you greatly.

We took a week off from everything last week, it was great! I missed posting the Daily Widget though, it had become a part of my daily routine and I enjoy it.

Glad you are here as well! Thanks! :hi:

Homey can't afford no trips with these gas prices. I guess we could have made skirts out of some dead grass and ate some pineapple, though! :D

I want to be part of a list, too! How about an "Appreciates Kukesa" list? :D

:hi:

How did you come up with the dashed green line in figure 2b? Lucky guess? It seems that Obama's progress is tracking your trendline very closely.

I'm surprised that Utah is showing so much indecision--they must be waiting for Romney's nomination to come through. New York is also surprising in that way---Hillary diehards?

I admit to being less than inspired by Biden. He's gonna have to do something to prove me wrong.

The dashed green line in Figure 2b is the polynomial trendline for the data shown on the solid green line in the same graph, so in effect it's the same data but two different ways of looking at it. Excel takes the data and "smooths it out" to give us a picture of how it has flowed on average in the past and how it may flow in the next seven days or so.

The high undecideds in those states make me wonder as well ... your analysis of Utah and New York may be on the nose :D

Biden is a good fit politically, imo ... hopefully he will do many things to help the ticket! Biden reminds me a lot of Dick Durbin, who stays grounded and in touch by coming home from Washington as much as possible instead of fatcatting and hobnobbing in DC.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

and has done nothing but Senate, and comes off the Eastern seaboard. Surely there could have been a more inspiring, appealing to Hispanics and West and South and maybe even women, candidate or two?

There's nothing wrong with a rock star! The GOP is just sick about it, that's why they are trying to turn it into a perjorative. They know McCain has all the sex appeal and charisma of used coffee grinds on whole wheat toast. TWO rock stars would blow McCain and the GOP away forever.

:rofl:

I heard the pundits trying to assert that Delaware is "part of the South" but I can't imagine that being true. Maryland doesn't seem part of the South to me either. I was hoping someone from Florida would be vetted for VP, to hit on all the demographics, but that didn't happen. Maybe "middle class" and "Catholic" can help carry Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Hillary Clinton would have been great to attract the areas where Obama seems lacking, but she would have been as much as a negative as a postive. Janet Napolitano would have been a great pick, but she doesn't seem to have the needed foreign policy creds that Biden can bring.

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out!

:bounce:

We're so happy you are back! :loveya:

Off to see pirates. Take a look at the charts later. :hi:

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:

I teach some Excel classes, but I could get some lessons from you. :)

--IMM

I went to Google School to learn this, lol (DavidD helped a bit) ...

Excel 2007 has so many more features compared to Excel 2003. It was definitely worth the upgrade.

:hi:

:hi:

My BD is September 6th, I shall be expecting a huge bump by that date.

I'll make sure there's a huge bump on September 6th, just for you :D

(My bday is 9/19)

:hi: