THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, Sept 21 – Obama 285, McCain 253

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, September 21, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote
6. National Polls
7. Obama’s Seventeen
8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. Probabilities and Potentials
11. Sources and Links







1. Current Stats

With only 44 days remaining until the election, all of the states except three were polled this week and we are getting a more accurate and up-to-date picture of the state of the race so far. The only states that weren’t polled this week were Arkansas, Massachusetts and South Dakota. Barack Obama is leaping in the national polls after a miserable week for the McCain/Palin ticket, yet many of the state polls (which lag behind the national polls) are still showing the republican convention bounce. This being so, Obama is now leading in the electoral vote count (285 electoral votes, up from 269 last week) but is trailing in the popular vote totals from the state polls by 0.9%.

States moving to the left this week are: Delaware (3), Florida (27), Louisiana (9), Montana (3) and New York (31). States moving to the right this week are: Arizona (10), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4) and North Dakota (3). Nevada was the only state to switch sides this week.


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 44 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 285
McCain – 253
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 57,913,146 … (45.7%) … (-1,179,715)
McCain – 59,092,860 … (46.6%)
Barr – 2,981,160 … (2.4%)
Nader – 2,447,100 … (1.9%)
McKinney – 253,442 … (0.2%)
Undecided/Other – 4,033,291 … (3.2%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 46.22%
McCain – 53.78%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 59,890,000 … (47.3%) … (-1,510,000)
McCain – 61,400,000 … (48.4%)
All Others – 4,891,000 … (4.3%)


Probability of Obama Win – 59.9% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 92.2%



^ FIGURE 1a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 1b. This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.




2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 39.4% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 35.1%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error comes to about one-fifth of the total this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (trailing 46.2%-53.8%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 285, up from 269 last week.



^ FIGURE 2a. This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 2b. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.







3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The states within the margin of error increased 31 electoral votes this week, up from 106 electoral votes to 137 electoral votes. Florida (27) and New Hampshire (4) moved into the margin of error this week, while no states moved out.



^ FIGURE 3a. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate sorted into each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error and is referred to as “Lean.”




4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was trailing George W. Bush 239 electoral votes to 256 electoral votes, with 43 tied. Kerry was attempting a comeback in the polls with all eyes on the debates.

Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has 36 more Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. But Obama has 21 fewer Weak electoral votes than Kerry had then. There are also 18 more electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had 18 more Strong electoral votes then.



^ FIGURE 4a. Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ FIGURE 4b. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 4c. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.




5. Popular Vote

Obama is currently projected to win 45.7% of the popular vote, and he is trailing McCain by 0.9%. Barr is taking 2.4% of the vote, while Nader is polling at 1.9% and McKinney is polling at 0.2%. The percentage of Undecideds dropped this week to 3.2%. Factoring in the swing states to get an idea how the Undecideds will vote, Obama’s projected popular vote margin slips further to -1.1%.



^ FIGURE 5a. This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126 million votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 5c. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions as well as the percentages. The scale is between 0 and 126.75 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 63,375,000 votes.



^ FIGURE 5b. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%.




6. National Polls

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama leaps five percentage points to 50% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama jumps two percentage points to 48%. Meanwhile, DailyKos & Research 2000’s daily tracking average for Obama moves up three percentage points to 50% and the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking average for Obama moves up one percentage point to 45%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 47.4% for Obama, which is an increase of 2.4% from last week. Obama is now leading McCain in Gallup by 6%, leading by 1% in Rasmussen, leading by 8% in Research 2000, leading by 1% in Hotline and leading by 2.1% in RCP. Our Wigand Electoral Average fell from 48.14 last week to 47.21 this week for Obama, as Nevada moved into McCain’s territory.

The Daily Trackers showed Obama trailing by 2.0% last week as a whole, but he leads on average by 2.8% in the Daily Trackers this week. That’s a 4.8% turnaround in one week. In the Big 12 National Monthly Polls, Obama’s lead grew from 0.5% last week to 1.0% this week on average. Looking at all national polling together, Obama went from trailing by 0.1% overall last week to leading by 1.6% overall this week.



^ FIGURE 6a. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



^ FIGURE 6b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 6c. The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.




7. Obama’s Seventeen

Overall trading for the 17 states that the Obama Campaign is targeting this year jumped 83.40 points to 770.20 this week, an increase of 4.9%. This is just below the majority mark of 850.00. All states gained ground this week except for North Dakota (3) and Pennsylvania (21).

Figure 7c below shows how all 17 states are polling together as a group over time. Both Obama’s and McCain’s trend lines for these swing states are falling back a bit from last week, signifying that more swing-state voters are Undecided this week.



^ FIGURE 7a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 7b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 7c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.




8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 51.2, up from 47.9 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets rose from 48.1 to 51.0 this week.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states in the Wigand Electoral Average jumps 46.90 this week to 541.80 for Obama, which is below the majority mark of 600.00. No states gained ground in trading for Obama this week. All states gained ground this week except for Nebraska and Pennsylvania. Obama is trailing McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 46.2% to 53.8%. This is up 5.0 percentage points from last week for Obama.



^ FIGURE 8a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 8b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 8c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 8d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.




9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.


Alabama Obama 36, McCain 58 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Alabama Obama 34, McCain 64 (Survey USA, 9/17, +/- 3.9, 655 LV)
Alaska Obama 39, McCain 55 (American Research Group, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Alaska Obama 38, McCain 55 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arizona Obama 39, McCain 56 (American Research Group, 9/14, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
California Obama 52, McCain 36 (Field Poll, 9/14, +/- 3.5, 830 LV)
Colorado Obama 44, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Colorado Obama 46, McCain 48, Barr 1, Nader 3 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 45, McCain 44 (Allstate/National Journal, 9/15, +/- 4.9, 402 RV)
Colorado Obama 51, McCain 41 (Insider Advantage, 9/17, +/- 4.3, 508 LV)
Connecticut Obama 53, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 9/16, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Connecticut Obama 54, McCain 39 (American Research Group, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Delaware Obama 55, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 9/13, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Delaware Obama 51, McCain 40 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
District of Columbia Obama 82, McCain 13 (American Research Group, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 44, McCain 49, Barr 2, Nader 2 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 46, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 44, McCain 44 (Allstate/National Journal, 9/15, +/- 4.9, 402 RV)
Florida Obama 48, McCain 44, B1, N4, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/16, +/- 3.5, 907 RV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 51 (Survey USA, 9/17, +/- 3.8, 707 LV)
Georgia Obama 35, McCain 56 (Public Opinion Strategies, 9/11, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 9/16, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Georgia Obama 41, McCain 57 (Survey USA, 9/16, +/- 3.8, 684 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 51 (Insider Advantage, 9/17, +/- 4.3, 503 LV)
Hawaii Obama 63, McCain 32 (American Research Group, 9/12, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Idaho Obama 25, McCain 68 (American Research Group, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Idaho Obama 33, McCain 62 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 500 LV)
Illinois Obama 51, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Illinois Obama 53, McCain 37 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 628 LV)
Illinois Obama 56, McCain 36 (Research 2000, 9/18, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Illinois Obama 56, McCain 40 (Rasmussen, 9/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Indiana Obama 43, McCain 48, B2, N4, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/16, +/- 3.5, 890 RV)
Indiana Obama 47, McCain 44 (Selzer & Co., 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Indiana Obama 43, McCain 47 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 612 LV)
Indiana Obama 44, McCain 47 (American Research Group, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Indiana Obama 47, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 9/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Iowa Obama 52, McCain 40, Barr 2, Nader 1 (Des Moines Register, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 616 LV)
Iowa Obama 45, McCain 45 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 643 LV)
Iowa Obama 54, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 9/18, +/- 3.8, 702 LV)
Kansas Obama 31, McCain 63 (American Research Group, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Kentucky Obama 37, McCain 57 (American Research Group, 9/12, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Kentucky Obama 37, McCain 55 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Louisiana Obama 43, McCain 50 (American Research Group, 9/12, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Maine Obama 51, McCain 41 (American Research Group, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Maine Obama 50, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 9/17, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maryland Obama 54, McCain 39 (American Research Group, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Michigan Obama 52, McCain 43 (Marist College, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 550 LV)
Michigan Obama 48, McCain 44 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 628 LV)
Michigan Obama 43, McCain 42 (EPIC/MRA, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Michigan Obama 48, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Minnesota Obama 49, McCain 47 (Survey USA, 9/11, +/- 3.7, 734 Adults)
Minnesota Obama 45, McCain 45 (Star Tribune, 9/12, +/- 3.9, 1106 LV)
Minnesota Obama 47, McCain 45 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 610 LV)
Mississippi Obama 39, McCain 55 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 45, McCain 50 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 45, McCain 49 (Research 2000, 9/18, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Montana Obama 47, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/9, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Nebraska Obama 34, McCain 60 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Nevada Obama 46, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/14, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 45, McCain 48 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Jersey Obama 50, McCain 41 (Research 2000, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Jersey Obama 49, McCain 41 (Monmouth University, 9/14, +/- 4.0, 589 LV)
New Jersey Obama 48, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 9/14, +/- 2.8, 1187 LV)
New Jersey Obama 55, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 9/16, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New Jersey Obama 47, McCain 43 (Strategic Vision, 9/16, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
New Mexico Obama 52, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 9/16, +/- 3.9, 671 LV)
New Mexico Obama 51, McCain 44 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Mexico Obama 49, McCain 42 (Allstate/National Journal, 9/15, +/- 4.9, 402 RV)
New York Obama 46, McCain 41 (Siena College, 9/10, +/- 3.9, 626 LV)
New York Obama 55, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 9/15, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New York Obama 55, McCain 38 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Carolina Obama 46, McCain 45, B2, N2, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/16, +/- 3.5, 910 RV)
North Carolina Obama 41, McCain 52 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Carolina Obama 35, McCain 41, Undecided 24 (Elon University, 9/16, +/- 4.9, 400 RV)
North Dakota Obama 43, McCain 52 (American Research Group, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Dakota Obama 40, McCain 53 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 500 LV)
Ohio Obama 42, McCain 46, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Suffolk University, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 50 (American Research Group, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 45, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 9/14, +/- 3.8, 692 LV)
Ohio Obama 45, McCain 48, Barr 0, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 48 (Public Policy Polling, 9/14, +/- 3.0, 1077 LV)
Ohio Obama 41, McCain 42 (Allstate/National Journal, 9/15, +/- 4.9, 400 RV)
Ohio Obama 47, McCain 45 (Marist College, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 550 LV)
Ohio Obama 46, McCain 44, B2, N4, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/16, +/- 3.0, 913 RV)
Ohio Obama 46, McCain 45 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 619 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 34, McCain 61 (American Research Group, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Oregon Obama 43, McCain 37 (Ivan Moore Research, 9/11, +/- 5.0, 400 RV)
Oregon Obama 50, McCain 40, Nader 2 (Portland Tribune, 9/14, +/- 4.4, 500 RV)
Oregon Obama 51, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 47, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 49, McCain 44 (Marist College, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 550 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 45, McCain 45 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 608 LV)
Rhode Island Obama 58, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 9/13, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Rhode Island Obama 59, McCain 33 (American Research Group, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
South Carolina Obama 37, McCain 59 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
South Carolina Obama 45, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 9/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Tennessee Obama 36, McCain 59 (American Research Group, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Texas Obama 36, McCain 57 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Utah Obama 32, McCain 64 (Rasmussen, 9/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Utah Obama 29, McCain 65 (American Research Group, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Vermont Obama 55, McCain 36 (Research 2000, 9/13, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Vermont Obama 60, McCain 36 (Rasmussen, 9/13, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 50, McCain 46 (Survey USA, 9/14, +/- 3.7, 732 LV)
Virginia Obama 48, McCain 48, Barr 0, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 39, McCain 48 (Christopher Newport Univ., 9/14, +/- 4.4, 500 RV)
Virginia Obama 48, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 9/14, +/- 3.0, 1090 LV)
Virginia Obama 41, McCain 48 (Allstate/National Journal, 9/15, +/- 4.9, 409 RV)
Virginia Obama 46, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 9/17, +/- 4.3, 502 LV)
Washington Obama 47, McCain 42 (Strategic Vision, 9/16, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Washington Obama 50, McCain 44 (American Research Group, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
West Virginia Obama 45, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 48, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 9/13, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 49, McCain 45, B1, N3, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/16, +/- 3.0, 950 RV)
Wisconsin Obama 45, McCain 44 (Big Ten/University of Wisconsin, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 616 LV)
Wyoming Obama 28, McCain 66 (American Research Group, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)




10. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 64.9%, while McCain’s potential advantage is 60.6%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +4.3% (up from +0.0% last week). McCain’s potential advantage rose by 0.7 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage rose by 5.0 percentage points.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 58.7% and Bush’s potential advantage was 63.4%. Kerry trailed Bush by 4.7% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +4.3% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 153 … (28.4%)
McCain – 146 … (27.1%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 212 … (39.4%)
McCain – 189 … (35.1%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 349 … (64.9%)
McCain – 189 … (35.1%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 212 … (39.4%)
McCain – 326 … (60.6%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 392 … (72.9%)
McCain – 146 … (27.1%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 153 … (28.4%)
McCain – 385 … (71.6%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.




11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com
3 Blue Dudes


As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything! Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

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:donut: Good morning to all! :hi:

Links to previous posts fixed, and a more recent version of the Daily Track Stack is available below (the date on the link file was three days old)

This one looks much better :D





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:kick:

Next week should be even better. I saw PPP Obama tied in NC, last night! And, we're back to 50% on the Gallup, treading up.

Obama is looking good on the Seventeen, great strategy.

:donut: :kick: :hi:

It hasn't popped up in my RSS feeds yet, lol

(after looking) ... Barr is polling at 5% in NC! That's our trojan horse there.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

If I'm reading this right, how is McCain ahead in popular vote?? Is it because of Blunder Woman? I will be anxiously awaiting 'The Math' after the debate this Friday!

The red states are polling very high for McCain, so his national popular vote total from the state polls is a bit bloated right now. He is also still feeling the republican bounce in many swing states.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

I don't know who Rasmussen polled up here, but they are full of shit. There's no way we are weak Obama.

:hi:

Other pollsters show Maine as a whole going strong Obama, but Allen losing by 15. Who knows :crazy:

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:

I don't get it. :shrug:

I've been eying the narrowing window of opportunity here, and wondering--how late can Obama wait before he makes a break for a blowout?

Granted, I've no idea of HOW he could make that break--and it's far more likely that the economy would do it all by itself, or Iran, or Iraq, or some other combination of outside events could trigger a landslide---still, it would be gratifying to see the man win by his demonstrably own efforts at convincing all the bozos on the bus to get out of religion and into reality, before it's too late!

If that didn't make sense, let me know. I've been up since 3:30 am and need some sleep....

Honestly, I thought for sure that Caribou Barbie would have done the trick all by herself...


And what is it with these marginal people in the MOE? Do we have to buy them? For $700 billion I bet you could buy 90% of the turnout!

We'll know Obama is doing better when his poll numbers begin to pick up among older voters. Talking about the economy and social security is the right thing to do right now. I'm paying close attention to the 55 to 59 age group, hoping it'll turn over soon. That would cause a significant swing in his direction nationwide, as it is one of the most dedicated voting blocs.

If Obama begins to lead among older voters, it will be a blowout. :D :hi:

Although these are the biggest bozos of all--I know because I went to school with them, and they were bozos then. Time has not improved them.

And he's a bozo, age 57, votes republican, wanted to retire by 59 and can't quite figure out why he can't now. His politics disconnected him from his money, that's for sure.

:hi:

If McCain wins, we are all enslaved.

mccain has shown how woefully inadequate he is. nobody knows who sarah is anymore. the numbers are only gonna get better.